Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again.

Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style.

Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... 

Think the clocks going back next week might stir people - though perhaps the weather might rouse attention first.

Frankly I’d rather some of the charts we are seeing now appear from late Nov on rather than now. But the very split with over 15 and times near or over 20°c spread in the Aberdeen ensembles was something I noticed a lot last winter.

Is GFS just acting bizarrely  though? ECM is nowhere near this type of scenerio. 

Longer term ... remember a few days back when this week (beginning ca 20th) was going to be all HP dominated ? Forget it, LP near Sctland dominating. But hope springs eternal, both GFS and ECM have served it up again the following week (i.e. from 27th), over or just to the east of the UK - and if you want to take a punt on further ahead, GFS brings back LP, not deep but well south over England the week after that.

But low confidence - after an agreed dip in temp around the 26th there's a wide scatter in the GEFS ens in both temp and rainfall for the whole of the rest of the forecast period

The interesting charts often appear in the autumn and spring. The jet usually fires and flattens more in the winter months. That's why my view is people should make the most of the interesting periods even if they occur in October or April. 

Autumn is already half way done.  We're only just over a month away from Winter.

06Z continues the trend: cold air undercutting the rain band and turning it to snow over higher ground. Looks to me like evaporative cooling will also play a part with this, if of course the GFS has it right.

It's different up here.

Autumn lasts between October and October.

Lots of spread on the GFS ensembles for Friday night. Most don't show any snow.  Other models such as ECM are not entertaining the idea.  The Met Office automated data is nowhere near snow conditions at any point *(8-9c).

London and the south east enjoy drier and warmer conditions by default.  Us up north can experience Autumn at any part of the year, but only have the opportunity of some summer weather sometime around June.

youd think that would give us access to decent winter weather, but the south east does better again at that too. :(

This little feature coming in from the SW meeting the Northerly winds on Friday could have been a big snow event if this occurred in winter!??

Look at the huge temp gradient/contrast!? I think the GFS Op is going a bit OTT though!?

There is good agreement to 144hrs which is good, with the forecast and pattern agreed up to that point if you look at the ECMWF and UKMO Model.

There could be rain and snow in Scotland for Friday and Saturday.  And Friday has heavy rain for S SE and ESE England on this coming Friday.

Chilly for much of the UK on Saturday to Monday (3 days with winds blowing in from the NW then North.

What the Models do for after T144 is up in the air at the moment.  Wintry showers for Scotland on Saturday as well quite possible mixed with rain at lower levels.

Will the Eastern Mid North Atlantic High stay over the Western UK on Monday to Wednesday next week- GFS says No, but ECMWF says yes.  Will this forecast upgrade or downgrade for cold weather fans.  The 12z ECMWF and 12z UKMO has a blocked out Low Pressure for the Midwest North Atlantic to our WSW and South southwest with UK and NE Atlantic High Pressure hold firmly- to T144 at Monday next week- ECMWF has cold Northerly over UK even on Wednesday/ Thursday next week while today’s 12z GFS brings the Low P NE across the UK for same time period, then drags the cold Northerly as it passes SW to ENE.

Get the current LP out of the way this weekend, then HP for a while until about 31st when both GFS and ECM have LP coming in from SW and linking up with cold LP over Scandi. GFS has an impressive N plunge on the 8th but that's a long way off and GFS' record isn't good.

GEFS consistent with this but better agreement than yesterday on temps below average

The output at the moment is fascinating. Cool to cold at times for this time of year.

Nah, thy'll just wear a slightly thicker skin-tight t-shirt