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Russwirral
21 October 2019 16:34:39
Upgrade for snow for north midlands for friday

Im hoping it slips further south again. Im meant to be playing golf friday at 11am.
Brian Gaze
21 October 2019 17:14:06

Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Russwirral
21 October 2019 22:08:45
Friday continues to model the feature further south

Chilterns could be in the firing line by tomorrows run
beanoir
21 October 2019 22:42:22

Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style.


Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... 


Langford, Bedfordshire
haggishunter
21 October 2019 22:59:32


Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style.


Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... 


Originally Posted by: beanoir 


Think the clocks going back next week might stir people - though perhaps the weather might rouse attention first.


Frankly I’d rather some of the charts we are seeing now appear from late Nov on rather than now. But the very split with over 15 and times near or over 20°c spread in the Aberdeen ensembles was something I noticed a lot last winter.

Heavy Weather 2013
22 October 2019 05:49:36
25 October looks like a key day. Anything can happen after that day, but the switch in the Ensembles overnight with more cool runs suggest something is afoot.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Tim A
22 October 2019 06:21:54


Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Is GFS just acting bizarrely  though? ECM is nowhere near this type of scenerio. 


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 October 2019 06:43:18

Longer term ... remember a few days back when this week (beginning ca 20th) was going to be all HP dominated ? Forget it, LP near Sctland dominating. But hope springs eternal, both GFS and ECM have served it up again the following week (i.e. from 27th), over or just to the east of the UK - and if you want to take a punt on further ahead, GFS brings back LP, not deep but well south over England the week after that.


But low confidence - after an agreed dip in temp around the 26th there's a wide scatter in the GEFS ens in both temp and rainfall for the whole of the rest of the forecast period


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
idj20
22 October 2019 08:53:40

Friday continues to model the feature further south

Chilterns could be in the firing line by tomorrows run

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Unfortunately in turn that would deliver strong south west gales to the far South East, including Kent.

How depressing - and it's not even deep Autumn yet. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Brian Gaze
22 October 2019 09:25:28


 


Think the clocks going back next week might stir people - though perhaps the weather might rouse attention first.


Frankly I’d rather some of the charts we are seeing now appear from late Nov on rather than now. But the very split with over 15 and times near or over 20°c spread in the Aberdeen ensembles was something I noticed a lot last winter.


Originally Posted by: haggishunter 


The interesting charts often appear in the autumn and spring. The jet usually fires and flattens more in the winter months. That's why my view is people should make the most of the interesting periods even if they occur in October or April. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Russwirral
22 October 2019 10:35:54




Unfortunately in turn that would deliver strong south west gales to the far South East, including Kent.

How depressing - and it's not even deep Autumn yet


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


Autumn is already half way done.  We're only just over a month away from Winter.


idj20
22 October 2019 12:56:07


 


 


Autumn is already half way done.  We're only just over a month away from Winter.


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Yes, but this is Kent we're talking about where it is basically one long Autumn between October and April. 

Back on topic, GFS seems bullish about a compact but rapidly developing "runner" low zipping ENE-wards across Southern England on Friday. It's unlikely to be another Oct '87 or St Judes '13 but may be enough to give me the first proper blow of the season, along with bringing yet more unwanted rain to central parts. 

However, the other models are much less keen on it so it's either GFS overcooking things or may end up being right on the money, like it usually is when it comes to this kind of set up from afar. 



Folkestone Harbour. 
Bolty
22 October 2019 12:57:17

06Z continues the trend: cold air undercutting the rain band and turning it to snow over higher ground. Looks to me like evaporative cooling will also play a part with this, if of course the GFS has it right.



Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Saint Snow
22 October 2019 13:17:08


Yes, but this is Kent we're talking about where it is basically one long Autumn between October and April. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


It's different up here.


Autumn lasts between October and October.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Tim A
22 October 2019 13:41:30


06Z continues the trend: cold air undercutting the rain band and turning it to snow over higher ground. Looks to me like evaporative cooling will also play a part with this, if of course the GFS has it right.


 


Originally Posted by: Bolty 


Lots of spread on the GFS ensembles for Friday night. Most don't show any snow.  Other models such as ECM are not entertaining the idea.  The Met Office automated data is nowhere near snow conditions at any point *(8-9c).


 


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Russwirral
22 October 2019 14:06:56


 


 


It's different up here.


Autumn lasts between October and October.


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 




London and the south east enjoy drier and warmer conditions by default.  Us up north can experience Autumn at any part of the year, but only have the opportunity of some summer weather sometime around June.


 


youd think that would give us access to decent winter weather, but the south east does better again at that too. :(


tallyho_83
22 October 2019 17:49:55

This little feature coming in from the SW meeting the Northerly winds on Friday could have been a big snow event if this occurred in winter!??


Look at the huge temp gradient/contrast!? I think the GFS Op is going a bit OTT though!?




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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
22 October 2019 19:23:49

There is good agreement to 144hrs which is good, with the forecast and pattern agreed up to that point if you look at the ECMWF and UKMO Model.


There could be rain and snow in Scotland for Friday and Saturday.  And Friday has heavy rain for S SE and ESE England on this coming Friday.


Chilly for much of the UK on Saturday to Monday (3 days with winds blowing in from the NW then North.


What the Models do for after T144 is up in the air at the moment.  Wintry showers for Scotland on Saturday as well quite possible mixed with rain at lower levels.


Will the Eastern Mid North Atlantic High stay over the Western UK on Monday to Wednesday next week- GFS says No, but ECMWF says yes.  Will this forecast upgrade or downgrade for cold weather fans.  The 12z ECMWF and 12z UKMO has a blocked out Low Pressure for the Midwest North Atlantic to our WSW and South southwest with UK and NE Atlantic High Pressure hold firmly- to T144 at Monday next week- ECMWF has cold Northerly over UK even on Wednesday/ Thursday next week while today’s 12z GFS brings the Low P NE across the UK for same time period, then drags the cold Northerly as it passes SW to ENE.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
ballamar
23 October 2019 06:53:17
Way off in terms of any accuracy but a very interesting chart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH00_384_1.png 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 October 2019 06:53:32

Get the current LP out of the way this weekend, then HP for a while until about 31st when both GFS and ECM have LP coming in from SW and linking up with cold LP over Scandi. GFS has an impressive N plunge on the 8th but that's a long way off and GFS' record isn't good.


GEFS consistent with this but better agreement than yesterday on temps below average


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Heavy Weather 2013
23 October 2019 07:03:24

The output at the moment is fascinating. Cool to cold at times for this time of year.


 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
nsrobins
23 October 2019 07:36:12
High res GFS still keen on the ‘zippy’ low Friday afternoon - risk severe gales S UK. The persistence of this feature lends some credibility to it so one to watch.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
23 October 2019 08:27:27

High res GFS still keen on the ‘zippy’ low Friday afternoon - risk severe gales S UK. The persistence of this feature lends some credibility to it so one to watch.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 



Although it looks like Southern coasts and the far South East actually missing out on the bulk of the general rain with Wales and the Midlands getting the brunt of that (possibly some wintry stuff over the Pennines) while here at Kent it'll be a windy but mostly dry night - at least until the squally-like cold front passes over us in the small hours of Saturday morning. 
Either or, it should do a good job in keeping the local nightclub drunks holed up indoors. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Saint Snow
23 October 2019 09:40:56


Either or, it should do a good job in keeping the local nightclub drunks holed up indoors. 


Originally Posted by: idj20 


 


Nah, thy'll just wear a slightly thicker skin-tight t-shirt 


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
idj20
23 October 2019 15:30:34


 


 


Nah, thy'll just wear a slightly thicker skin-tight t-shirt 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



 Or just drink an extra couple of shots so that they are even more drunk to notice the rain and wind after closing time. 

Anyway, back on course.

GFS seems keen on a quieter settled week next week with HP taking control, but ECM less so with another LP popping up out of nowhere in 2nd half of week. Here's hoping for more of an agreement on the quieter theme in the 12z updates.


Folkestone Harbour. 
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