I’m looking at selling my boat..... maybe I’ll wait a week or so....

FFS 

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The UKMO, GFS 12z runs today keep the UK under High Pressure for much of Next Week, very quiet week of Autumn weather expected.

The Norwegian Sea NE Atlantic to our North and NE, NNE Europe and Iceland plus Greenland and also NW Atlantic get some cold winter weather, but by Thursday and Friday the NW and North Atlantic see further West to East Moving Jetstream energy- with Low Pressure systems Undercutting the Greenland high, then undercut the SW side of the Cold Pool to our North and NE Lol.

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The Blowtorch High is being shown by the ECMWF 12z, giving the UK nothing much- the NW Atlantic at 24-24-72-96 hrs is being shown to get only Scotland and NE Ireland some of the tip of the cold arctic air, but for much of the UK on Sunday at T96 hmm, cool and showery regime is being shown.

This model is agreed with the GFS and UKMO, but the ICON brings the Cold Arctic Northerly in by Thursday and Friday the 24th and 25th October et all.

So- on Wednesday- with 12z ECMWF run being awaited, we see fine settled high pressure over the UK, NE Europe get cold arctic air this coming Weekend, with a few days break then another NE Europe cold plunge from Wednesday onwards aka the 23rd Oct. 2019.

Low Pressure over the NW Atlantic next week as being shown at T96, for this Sunday 12z runs, 20th Oct., a large WAA wedge of air associated with a Deep NW Atlantic Low.  This is shown to cross NE Atlantic and push from the NW and North Atlantic to Southwest and SE of North and NE Europe (away from the UK).

The ECMWF 12z is not showing a mild SW flow in NW Atlantic but actually a cold arctic Plunge for North Atlantic- with massive blocking high- Greenland high, but less cold for West and SW side of Greenland next week. Iceland, Eastern Greenland and Svalbard plus Norwegian Sea and NE Europe seeing very cold spell indeed- is forecasted.

Similar sort of pattern to yesterday, but with GFS being more bullish about HP over the UK, stronger and continuing longer, though there's a close brush with a depression in the NW mid/late next week. ECM more hesitant about setting up an HP cell, bit indications are there. Most GEFS runs have temps at or slightly above average, and rainfall low, especially in the op and control runs.

One cautionary note - Hagibis has sent the jet stream into wild meanderings, and according to Weather for thee Week Ahead on BBC last night, this is badly handled by computer models. They were not really offering any forecast for as much as a week ahead. https://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20191018/00/159/hgt300.png 

Ten days is a long time in weather! Latest GFS charts show breakdown then with LP from SW.

High pressure generally present for a week or so after current LP fills and moves away in the next few days. GFS shows it as the fragile* tail ends of ridges, first from SW then from NW.  ECM more positive on a definite HP centre, FAX and GEFS show LP grazing the NW with rain for Scotland even in the middle of next week. S Britain notably dry until beginning of Nov

GEFS temps about average except that the op run is a notable cold outlier, as much as 5C below normal for several days

* Fragile in the sense that there are quite deep LPs on either side which could easily expand or move so as to displace the ridge

I see Iceland is about to get its first proper winter blast with bitter northerly winds and ice days with heavy snow showers in the north of the island. 

Quite a strong blocking theme over Greenland and the mid Atlantic which could give us some seasonal weather - however the Arctic flow looks likely to miss us with high pressure nudging in from the SE. 

Yes, when looking at the FAX charts for next Tuesday and Wednesday I was struck by the big HP area extending from north of Greenland to south of Newfoundland.  I don't remember seeing such a large HP in that location very often.

Definitely the chance of something a bit chillier towards next weekend. 

Really interesting pressure pattern to our NW. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

The start of Boris's "Winter of Discontent"

Forget the confident predictions of HP establishing in the coming week. Instead there's a mixed bag of transient Hp and/or weak ridges with occasional incursions of LP. Both ECM and GFS do roughly agree from the 27th with major depressions in the Atlantic andover N Russia, and HP then developing over the UK, strongly according to ECM, less so in GFS. That is however contradicted by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 showing a lot of pptn all across the UK at that time.

And GEFS? For England, dry this coming week, a bit more rain next, temps above average to start with then dropping back. Scotland and NI much more of a scramble with no clear pattern.

Low confidence in all outcomes IMO - keep watching

A chance of my favourite Autumn weather on Tuesday,according to BBC Weather for the Week Ahead: a misty foggy morning. I love it when the first rays of weak morning sun highlight the spiders webs in the holly hedge next to the house. Sorry if I've said all this before.

Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there.

Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc

Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days.  Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month  

Sat 27th Oct Last year it tried to sleet before the rain diminished and went back to light drizzle.

Again a northerly at 240 says the ECM:

Quite a cold and snowy/wintry scene for many parts of Scandinavia!- However, we are just on the edge of it if this materialises!?

Some sleet for the Cheviots Friday night Saturday - Northumberland.