Brian Gaze
19 July 2019 14:02:33

Some heat looks baked in next week. What's less certain is the timing of the breakdown.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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TimS
  • TimS
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19 July 2019 15:32:10
GFS 12z just starting to leak out now. ICON out to Sunday so far.

I find it funny how my seasonal posting activity and hibernation on this site are almost directly opposite to most. I rarely bother posting outside UIA in winter unless something very spectacular is afoot, and then come and live over here in summer. Hot is just so much more fun than cold.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bertwhistle
19 July 2019 15:35:43

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

Some heat looks baked in next week. What's less certain is the timing of the breakdown.

Hope the recent runs, GEFS and ECM, are right in their repeated suggestions: my school closes on Tuesday and the 6 week break starts Wednesday. Wed and Thurs still look like being hot, humid days. At one point it made it to Tuesday only; at least the trend in the models is slipping the right way so far; hope we're getting close enough for it to count.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

Rob K
19 July 2019 16:06:29

Less of a potent blast on the 12Z as a deeper low spins up off Ireland and pushes things east, but still 33C in London on Wednesday.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Shropshire
19 July 2019 16:08:16

Agreement from the GFS and UKMO on Wednesday being the transition day to Atlantic dominated weather.


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Shropshire
19 July 2019 16:12:35

Both UKMO and GFS picking up on developing HP at Northern latitides at day 6, meaning potentially very wet weather for Western and Central areas from Thursday onwards.

 


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David M Porter
19 July 2019 16:21:43

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Both UKMO and GFS picking up on developing HP at Northern latitides at day 6, meaning potentially very wet weather for Western and Central areas from Thursday onwards.

 

There seems to have been HP somewhere in northern latitudes for much of the summer so far from what I can recall of following the output so far.

A more progressive run for sure so far, but there is nothing that I can see which suggests unusually high rainfall for anywhere.


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Heavy Weather 2013
19 July 2019 16:22:46
Still hot for next week. 33-35C still being progged.

It’s been a bit swings and roundabouts today. Length of this spell is still up on the air.


Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

TimS
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19 July 2019 16:24:39
Given how different UKMO and GFS are at 144hrs I'm expecting yet more very early, very wide spread in outcomes in tonight's ENS. Wonder what ECM will bring. 3 kinds of scenario now on the cards up to next weekend:

1. High pressure hangs on and expands, giving us record breaking heat as per 06z

2. High pressure breaks down from W/SW with a slack, thundery breakdown and northern blocking as per UKMO and the last few GEMs

3. High pressure eased away from NW with a cool but settled airmass ridging across the country, as per GFS 12z and this morning's ECM


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bertwhistle
19 July 2019 16:27:28

quote=Shropshire;1127520]

Agreement from the GFS and UKMO on Wednesday being the transition day to Atlantic dominated weather.

Sorry but I think you've misinterpreted the GFS Op there; the control & other members aren't on TWO yet. It's quite obvious from the chart below all of England & Wales still very much in the boiler Thursday am, (20C uppers across all the SE at 00z) so maybe Thursday is a transitional day (not convinced though, considering the 12 hourly swings of the last two days). I've said all along that Wednesday had far too much consistency as one of the hotties. 

 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

Rob K
19 July 2019 16:29:25

Seeing as the 12Z GFS has 850mb temps 10C lower than the 06Z just one week out, I don't think anyone can talk about "agreement from the models" for anything yet, other than Tuesday and Wednesday being hot. It all hinges on the behaviour of that LP which hasn't even formed yet. The trend seems to be more progressive today, but then it was a couple of days ago and swung back.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Bertwhistle
19 July 2019 16:37:42

And GFS Op showing a potential recharge a few days later. Whilst it's unwise to put weighting on a chart 10 days out, its also naive to latch on to the first few hours of an output and make big, bold prognoses. 

 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

Rob K
19 July 2019 17:28:23
Certainly not much sign of a return to unsettled weather on the 12Z op run. High pressure quickly builds back in.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Rob K
19 July 2019 17:31:03

GEFS show a shift towards an earlier end to the heat, but still a significant cluster staying hot:

12Z:

 

Compared to 6Z:


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2019 17:57:13
Turning into a bit of a waterfall of runs on the ens. The breakdown and drop happens with similar steepness but at various different times. 06z was more gentle.

Could still change. ICON and GEM are both fairly poor, let’s see about ECM.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Brian Gaze
19 July 2019 18:00:02

The model runs seemed to take a turn for the worse at exactly the same time the Met started tweeting about a heatwave next week. Such are the vagaries of medium range forecasting and the limitations of current modelling technology.   ECM running now.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx

 

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2019 18:36:00

ECM remaining very hot for the SE and EA upto 144h 23c 850s.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Arcus
19 July 2019 18:41:22
Although ECM shunts the plume further east, it maintains the thundery potential with little running heat lows and troughs in the southerly flow.
Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

TimS
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19 July 2019 18:42:59

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

ECM remaining very hot for the SE and EA upto 144h 23c 850s.

Im getting my 850s on wetterzentrale where annoyingly its playing repeats from yesterday. Will have to pop over to meteociel but I don’t like their graphics as much.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
19 July 2019 18:51:01

Originally Posted by: TimS 

 

Im getting my 850s on wetterzentrale where annoyingly its playing repeats from yesterday. Will have to pop over to meteociel but I don’t like their graphics as much.

 

Hate it when that happens. 168h is still hot in the east. 192h heat pushed east Azores trying to build in. 

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
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