Remove ads from site

Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, July 20, 2019 7:42:09 AM

Gotta love the ECM keeps it hot in the SE out to day 10. Hopefully it's playing a blinder here as its different to most other output. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Downpour
Saturday, July 20, 2019 7:46:36 AM


ECM keeps it potentially hot in the south east out to 240.






Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


A stunning run. I don’t think it’ll work out quite like that though. More likely that the dome shunts east and the Azores high nudges in, which keeps it warm, but not hot, in the SE.


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Ally Pally Snowman
Saturday, July 20, 2019 8:08:37 AM

ECM means would suggest many of the ensembles back a similar evolution to the op. Heat hangs on in the SE +15c 850s, until Friday.  then remains very warm in the south with high pressure building in.  Basically very good.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Saturday, July 20, 2019 8:36:50 AM


ECM means would suggest many of the ensembles back a similar evolution to the op. Heat hangs on in the SE +15c 850s, until Friday.  then remains very warm in the south with high pressure building in.  Basically very good.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


2m temperatures from the 0z ECM ENS for De Bilt


https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png


Still uncertainty for the end of next week. A cluster of runs going for cooler conditions from Friday. Control run very cool on Saturday but Op run stays very hot until Saturday.


Beyond that a general trend to cooler conditions (but probably still close to average) by the start of August.

Gavin D
Saturday, July 20, 2019 8:48:17 AM

Looking at UKMO the start of next week looks increasingly hot and dry away from west


ukm2.2019072212_060_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f2c9669bdc3d35a156ea9ecb8a001172.pngukm2.2019072312_084_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1e2ec35c66ba61cc67b52b5865fc59c9.png


By mid-week we start to see showers breaking out with the heat around these are likely to be torrential and thundery where they do develop


ukm2.2019072412_108_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.3f270c222ddb675123f940363e346f3f.pngukm2.2019072500_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.fb7574223d6778dcab9c7c33eed91cce.png


Towards the end of the week we continue to see some rain/showers but with fresher air from the west


ukm2.2019072600_144_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ca7d088b732d66c3f0855043e4a57203.pngukm2.2019072700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.edaac96c40922d1392b5e0abc82d0b2f.png

briggsy6
Saturday, July 20, 2019 9:10:06 AM

Shame, I'd rather have seen a continuation of the pleasantly warm, dry conditions but it's not to be.


Location: Uxbridge
David M Porter
Saturday, July 20, 2019 9:14:57 AM


Shame, I'd rather have seen a continuation of the pleasantly warm, dry conditions but it's not to be.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


The night-time temps shown by the BBC for next week suggest to me that humidity will be quite high in many areas next week, until the fresher air moves in. I'd rather that it wasn't too humid as it is hellish for me trying to get to sleep at night.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, July 20, 2019 10:33:29 AM
06z GFS evolves in a similar way to 00z next week. Thursday hot but cold front Thurs pm into Friday and fresh thereafter.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Bertwhistle
Saturday, July 20, 2019 12:18:55 PM

Slight improvement in the GFS Ens: quick look at the 2m T postage stamps gives a mean on Wed a degree up on the earlier run. Thursday still best bet as the transition day. But that's 5 days away- could shift a day either way; the enhancing low that spoils the show hasn't formed yet, and might be more or less intense & extensive than modelled. 


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
'We'll never see 40 celsius in this country'.
bledur
Saturday, July 20, 2019 1:01:41 PM


Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Well yes ECM vainly holding the heat a little longer but there is agreement for the heatwave to be quite short before it turns more unsettled which ties in with John Hammond,s look ahead forecast of a cooler wetter spell from the 29th. 


 Of course it might all change again in the next day or two.

Brian Gaze
Saturday, July 20, 2019 1:44:12 PM

The discussion in here has been a lot better on the whole since the thread was closed in May. However in recent days I have noticed a few off topics posts creeping back in. If you have an issue with another member raise it with me or one of the mods rather than publicly here. 


If you haven't read the thread in the FA discussing the MO please take a look. It is us here:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20046


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
David M Porter
Saturday, July 20, 2019 4:19:10 PM


Well yes ECM vainly holding the heat a little longer but there is agreement for the heatwave to be quite short before it turns more unsettled which ties in with John Hammond,s look ahead forecast of a cooler wetter spell from the 29th. 


 Of course it might all change again in the next day or two.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


Knowing what the model output has often been like this summer, it probably will change again.


The theme of the output this summer generally so far is that anything for more than 5-6 days ahead has more often than not been subject to change. It is now looking more likely that the mini-heatwave will be pretty much over by Friday, but time will tell as to whether or not it will be the start of a prolonged cooler and more unsettled spell.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, July 20, 2019 4:39:12 PM
GFS 12 marginally more progressive than 06 but more settled after the breakdown up to 240.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like an early Thurs breakdown then northern blocking.

ICON slower to break down than GFS and starts ridging from Scandinavia thereafter before a nasty little low swings in.

GEM similar to ICON up to 168.

Actually a fair amount of similarity between the models this evening.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
David M Porter
Saturday, July 20, 2019 5:03:37 PM

GFS 12 marginally more progressive than 06 but more settled after the breakdown up to 240.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like an early Thurs breakdown then northern blocking.

ICON slower to break down than GFS and starts ridging from Scandinavia thereafter before a nasty little low swings in.

GEM similar to ICON up to 168.

Actually a fair amount of similarity between the models this evening.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


This has been the biggest barrier during this summer thus far to us getting a sustained settled spell, like we saw for much of the time during the first two-thirds of last summer. What I have noticed in the output quite regularly since late May/early June is that pressure over Greenland seems to have been fairly high for much of the time, and as a result the jet stream has not stayed to the north of the UK for long. Hopefully that will change as we go into August, but we shall see.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Heavy Weather 2013
Saturday, July 20, 2019 5:42:11 PM
I think what’s remarkable is that 33C used to be a meltdown moment. Now it’s a run of the mill.

I was telling a mate the other day about 2003. What a week that that was.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, July 20, 2019 6:34:49 PM

GFS Op has big NW-SE split in the rainfall totals over next 10 days.


NW Scotland washout


Sussex and Kent arid



Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Nick Gilly
Saturday, July 20, 2019 6:35:32 PM

I think what’s remarkable is that 33C used to be a meltdown moment. Now it’s a run of the mill.

I was telling a mate the other day about 2003. What a week that that was.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Indeed. The 35C barrier is another one. It looks like it happened in 11 years of the 20th century (may need revising as Trevor Harley is still updating his weather pages), but it has already happened 4 times this century, in 2003, 2006, 2015 and 2018. Will we be able to add 2019 to that list? We'll have to wait and see...

Heavy Weather 2013
Saturday, July 20, 2019 6:39:48 PM


 


 


Indeed. The 35C barrier is another one. It looks like it happened in 11 years of the 20th century (may need revising as Trevor Harley is still updating his weather pages), but it has already happened 4 times this century, in 2003, 2006, 2015 and 2018. Will we be able to add 2019 to that list? We'll have to wait and see...


Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 


I think we will hit 35C. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion we’ll hit the July record as well


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
Saturday, July 20, 2019 7:42:49 PM
No to July record, but 35C could be on. It seems we can tap into hot air quite easily these days but we still struggle to turn those dream FI charts into reality. There have been many dozens of runs over the last 5 or 6 years giving over a week of record-threatening temperatures but they’ve not yet come to pass.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Polar Low
Saturday, July 20, 2019 7:52:02 PM

36C on the raw at 120 apparently can we add a couple on?


850,s at that time



Limited sea modification in that s/e corner at that time



 


No to July record, but 35C could be on. It seems we can tap into hot air quite easily these days but we still struggle to turn those dream FI charts into reality. There have been many dozens of runs over the last 5 or 6 years giving over a week of record-threatening temperatures but they’ve not yet come to pass.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Users browsing this topic
    Ads