The discussion in here has been a lot better on the whole since the thread was closed in May. However in recent days I have noticed a few off topics posts creeping back in. If you have an issue with another member raise it with me or one of the mods rather than publicly here. 

If you haven't read the thread in the FA discussing the MO please take a look. It is us here:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20046

 

---

Knowing what the model output has often been like this summer, it probably will change again.

The theme of the output this summer generally so far is that anything for more than 5-6 days ahead has more often than not been subject to change. It is now looking more likely that the mini-heatwave will be pretty much over by Friday, but time will tell as to whether or not it will be the start of a prolonged cooler and more unsettled spell.

---

GFS 12 marginally more progressive than 06 but more settled after the breakdown up to 240.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like an early Thurs breakdown then northern blocking.

ICON slower to break down than GFS and starts ridging from Scandinavia thereafter before a nasty little low swings in.

GEM similar to ICON up to 168.

Actually a fair amount of similarity between the models this evening.

---

This has been the biggest barrier during this summer thus far to us getting a sustained settled spell, like we saw for much of the time during the first two-thirds of last summer. What I have noticed in the output quite regularly since late May/early June is that pressure over Greenland seems to have been fairly high for much of the time, and as a result the jet stream has not stayed to the north of the UK for long. Hopefully that will change as we go into August, but we shall see.

---

I think what’s remarkable is that 33C used to be a meltdown moment. Now it’s a run of the mill.

I was telling a mate the other day about 2003. What a week that that was.

---

GFS Op has big NW-SE split in the rainfall totals over next 10 days.

NW Scotland washout

Sussex and Kent arid

---

 

Indeed. The 35C barrier is another one. It looks like it happened in 11 years of the 20th century (may need revising as Trevor Harley is still updating his weather pages), but it has already happened 4 times this century, in 2003, 2006, 2015 and 2018. Will we be able to add 2019 to that list? We'll have to wait and see...

I think we will hit 35C. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion we’ll hit the July record as well

---

No to July record, but 35C could be on. It seems we can tap into hot air quite easily these days but we still struggle to turn those dream FI charts into reality. There have been many dozens of runs over the last 5 or 6 years giving over a week of record-threatening temperatures but they’ve not yet come to pass.

---

36C on the raw at 120 apparently can we add a couple on?

850,s at that time

Limited sea modification in that s/e corner at that time

 

Bit of cloud seeding over the central Atlantic needed to dull down that pump low a bit.

---

That has 35C building 16.00 I cant quite spot it, I cant seem to get 1 hour steps at that time scale 

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/temperature/20190725-1500z.html

  MWB with about 75% of members either as hot or hotter than the op - also maybe half with the heat backed a bit further west. Certainly 35C or slightly higher starting to look a good call for that day. 

My assessment is that 38C, 39C or even 40C still cannot be ruled out, and now just at D4-D6. 

Just 120 hours away

you dont get many ecm means looking like that at 72

 

Darrens specials has 86F by 1300 Tuesday

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/essentials

Agree with Polar Low , 37c isn't out the question ECM especially producing very hot charts 72/120h mark.  You can normally add a couple of degrees to their temp max charts. This one seems to be going under the radar for a lot of people after the hype of the late June heatwave that was really just 1 day.

Ecm also now has consistently very warm temps from 144h to 240h for the SE and EA at least mid to high 20s after the heatwave and mostly settled judging by the mean.

---

Thanks your the first one since the days of YD

Same day , different take 

GFS 18z so far (to Thurs) subtly different with orientation of the swooping low. More SW-NE rather than SE-NW, so lower uppers but possibly longer until breakdown.

---

Supported by BBC WftWA now saying breakdown on Friday - and still hedging bets about -just possibly - a thundery low in Biscay as scenario 2

EDIT - added Sunday am - the above confirmed by ensembles, ECM and GFS charts this morning, though ECM keeps it pleasantly warm in the south. Mildly surprising that there's no indication of more than scattered storms associated with the breakdown.

Further ahead, the agreement of the ensembles for the foreseeable for a spell of close-to-average temps and pptn looks too good to be true - there ought to be some outliers, one way or another! Particularly since both GFS  and ECM main charts each bring in a depression across the UK, ECM sooner and GFS later. I don't regard the outputs as predictable at the moment. 

---

ECM keeps the heat going to Friday this morning 29c forecast for Essex , it also has 36c on thursday so close to record territory. 

---

GEM has some interesting ensembles this morning. Rather different to the flat line and consensus implies by GEFS.

---

ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.

---

And those are raw values, so possibly a degree or two could go on top.