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Polar Low
21 July 2019 07:56:09

Even when you look at ecm next Monday 29th you cant rule out another heat rush south having a fab summer imo



 


 


 


 


 



ECM keeps the heat going to Friday this morning 29c forecast for Essex , it also has 36c on thursday so close to record territory. 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Polar Low
21 July 2019 07:57:26

Where is that link from Steve?



ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.


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Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Gusty
21 July 2019 08:07:17


Where is that link from Steve?


 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Its from metdesk.com Tim. 


Its a password protected site that I use for my role in winter maintenance.


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
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Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
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Polar Low
21 July 2019 08:08:00
Polar Low
21 July 2019 08:11:19

Thanks Steve put me out of misery looked everywhere for it.


 



 


Its from metdesk.com Tim. 


Its a password protected site that I use for my role in winter maintenance.


Originally Posted by: Gusty 

Polar Low
21 July 2019 08:20:09

Last nights ecm total max out 94F updates in a couple of hours


https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro


 


 

Polar Low
21 July 2019 08:24:29
Polar Low
21 July 2019 08:30:58

Yep I see also added Temp 2 across the set


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php


 


GEM has some interesting ensembles this morning. Rather different to the flat line and consensus implies by GEFS.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

Polar Low
21 July 2019 08:48:54


 ECM maxes similar to previous runs. After usual adjustments to ECM raw data, we may expect the following maximums this week:


Monday 30C


Tuesday 34C


Wednesday 35C


Thursday 38C


Friday 30C 


However, the highest temperatures are dependent on the pattern not shifting any further east. 

Rob K
21 July 2019 08:51:12
It looks like the highest temperatures will be restricted to the far southeast. Gravesend would be in prime position but did I read somewhere that is no longer an official station?
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
briggsy6
21 July 2019 09:07:56

Looking at the forecast this morning it's going to be a three day heatwave at best. 34c possible in usual places - probably Northolt and Heathrow Airport again like last time. All over by Friday.


Location: Uxbridge
superteacher
21 July 2019 09:11:52


Looking at the forecast this morning it's going to be a three day heatwave at best. 34c possible in usual places - probably Northolt and Heathrow Airport again like last time. All over by Friday.


Originally Posted by: briggsy6 


 


34C will be easily surpassed.

briggsy6
21 July 2019 10:03:39

Time will tell.


Location: Uxbridge
David M Porter
21 July 2019 10:37:19

From what I remember, the BBC were pretty much on the mark with their predictions of what the highest temperatures would be in the late June mini-heatwave, so we shall see what their thoughts are for this coming week.


What does seem fairly likely now from the output I can see is that the change to fresher weather will arrive by Friday, as is indicated by this morning's UKMO run and their updated text forecast quoted in the media thread.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Shropshire
21 July 2019 11:41:14


From what I remember, the BBC were pretty much on the mark with their predictions of what the highest temperatures would be in the late June mini-heatwave, so we shall see what their thoughts are for this coming week.


What does seem fairly likely now from the output I can see is that the change to fresher weather will arrive by Friday, as is indicated by this morning's UKMO run and their updated text forecast quoted in the media thread.


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


The GFS brings fresher weather to Central parts on Wednesday and for the West this is a non event.


 


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The Beast from the East
21 July 2019 11:52:05

just hope its not a thundery breakdown as could do without another flood in the garage as per Friday night


the previous heatwave ended calmly with a dry cold front pushing through, there was no precip left on it by the time it got here


 


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TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2019 12:50:10
Will the 12z runs give us one last twist on this week’s heatwave? I think it’s probably the last chance for anything significant one way or the other before we get into the easily predictable range.

In the longer term I don’t see any runs bringing in proper high pressure, which is a bit concerning for August. Would be nice to see at least a few going settled.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Rob K
21 July 2019 13:33:37

Run 10 of the GEFS is pretty crazy. It keeps the heat going until the 28th: 33C max on the 28th and then 15C daytime max on the 30th!


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
21 July 2019 13:38:35


 


The GFS brings fresher weather to Central parts on Wednesday and for the West this is a non event.


 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


The BBC week ahead forecast is predicting an area of thundery showers or storms moving north during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with another band of rain/showers/storms gradually moving east later on Thursday into Friday.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Heavy Weather 2013
21 July 2019 16:21:24
12z GFS is extremely hot on Thursday.

I’ve looked at the HD chart and I think it’s showing 36-37C. But it’s not clear, can someone confirm
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Bertwhistle
21 July 2019 16:24:17

Encouraging to see at least 2 potential days of hot holiday for me at only <4 days out; chances increase as the window closes.I'm still very interested in what happens after the weekend, and how much increasing heights over Greenland affect the track & intensity of these lows developing; early indications from the GFS OP suggest maybe a ridge nosing in from the SW around Tuesday. Here's this Thursday:



Bertie, Itchen Valley.
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Ally Pally Snowman
21 July 2019 16:28:29

12z GFS is extremely hot on Thursday.

I’ve looked at the HD chart and I think it’s showing 36-37C. But it’s not clear, can someone confirm

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


It looks like 38c in the london area to me but its not clear


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Ally Pally Snowman
21 July 2019 16:36:36

Arpege maxes for next week Monday 30c, Tuesday 34c, Wednesday 32c  , Thursday 36c. 


 


Also 43c in the Paris area on Thursday. truly extraordinary!


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Bertwhistle
21 July 2019 16:40:10

Some very warm -stifling- nights forecast around the Capital; not sure what the record UK night min is but 25C in London area at 5am looks - well- unsleepable.


Chart image


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
Heavy Weather 2013
21 July 2019 16:41:09
I think if we can break the July record it would be great.

The UK record is overdue now. 13 years it took for that to be broken. It’s been 16 years now...
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

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