GEM has 37c quite widely on Thursday.  34c  Wednesday 

Thursday has ramped up a notch today beating 38.5c looks possible after today's 12s.

Agreed. Thursday is now the day to watch

ECM pins the max around Faversham (i.e. Brogdale), coincidentally.

(Thursday looks like being an atrocious day down here, I can only hope the models are completely overdoing it!)

25C as a minimum? That'd be a new record, IIRC, so I wouldn't take that at face value at this range (anyone remember the 27C dewpoints a few weeks ago, for example?)

If it does happen, though.. it's what air-con was made for!

Lovely to see another heatwave and this time hopefully we can get some records broken since France already done it last month we missed out completely.  I only work Fri-Sat so the heatwave timing is very good for me as by Friday heatwave gone and I am back to work so I won't miss out.  I hope to see low 30's over here since I am near to the coast.  Isle of Grain 4 miles from here never go above 30C but the chart show over 30C and 33C over Lower Stoke here and 35C further westward.

I hope we break the record Jiries. I remember how happy you were in 2003

Only if it was at an official recording station..

I very much doubt that an overnight low of 25C hasn't ever been achieved in the urban area of a UK city in the past, but the due to a lack of city recording stations we will probably never know. The urban heat effect can be very localised, for example a few nights back it got down to around 9C at recording station near to me with the station being about 4 miles away as the wind blows, however it didn't drop below 14C here. 

I'm not sure how I feel about this.

We will be hitting the road around 08:30hrs on Thursday at Calais reaching Jard Sur Mer in Southern Vendee around 4pm ish.

I anticipate getting out the car around 2pm to experience what 40c heat feels like....exciting ! but there is a nagging feeling that the UK record could go and I'll be out of the country.

However..there is huge potential for some decent thunderstorms in Vendee late in the day as the fierce continental heat surrenders (maybe) to the fresher atlantic.

Exciting times 

Postage stamps GEFS for Thursday afternoon; seems the 31C mean I carolled about moved a day on. Transition Friday?

 There is still a lot of un- certainty as to when the cold front will push through, maybe not till Saturday for the far east which could bring some really hot air ahead of the front. More certain is a change for the start of August for a more mixed weather with rain across all areas as the Continental High temporarily recedes

ECM has 38c for Essex area for Thursday.  Wow! 37c more widely in Kent.

Have they really decommissioned Gravesend Broadness? Madness, up there with removing Camden square. Might as well go the whole hog at the other end of the spectrum and remove Benson or Altnaharra.

EDIT: yes, just confirmed online. Because they’re building a £3.2 billion theme park on the site. Next to Boris island airport perhaps.

When Solent another old regular UK  hot spot was removed it took a couple of year's to replace it. We have now gosport fleetlands :)

Here we go.

12z ECM in all her glory. 

Wow. 41C just across the water too - ICON has 42C in Calais FWIW.

Hopefully Brogdale is still in operation, although as a manual station it will mean a long wait for confirmation. None of the usual west London hotspots like Heathrow, Northolt, Kew, Wisley look to be in prime position as the heat is really focused to the east.

Shoeburyness is the only one in the right spot really and on the wrong side of the water. Andrewsfield maybe in with a shout too.

It's fascinating (from a nerdy point of view) just how poorly the ensembles are coping with the potential very hot conditions on Thursday. ECM, for example, shows this IMBY:

The maximum from the 51 members is 31.1C, but the op has 35.6C - not just slightly warmer, but a massive outlier. However, given the noises from the Met Office (their text forecast goes for 33C in the SE tomorrow as a high, for example), it's clearly not thought unusual.

The GEFS also has an "outside the pack" forecast, albeit to a lesser magnitude than ECM.

Generally the ensembles offer excellent guidance, but it seems their resolution isn't as high as it could be, hence small pockets of extremely high (or low) temperatures can get missed.

Arpege max temps this week 0z run

Monday 30c, Tuesday 33c, Wednesday 36c, Thursday 36c

Wednesday has 36c in Norfolk area but Thursday has 36c quite widely in the SE and EA so 37 likely somewhere.

I'm not sure I'd want to be a forecaster this week - the models generally are showing the maximum heat streaming northwards through the Netherlands and up into Scandi whil LP from the Atlantic pushes uncertainly in from the west. A bit more push from the Atlantic and the heat wave vanishes; a bit less and the UK will have 30-35C widely.

Top chart for heat on Thursday seems to be Arpege (see Ally above); worst  is the fax chart with a well developed depression in the SW and fronts across the south implying storms and much lower temps. One must also be careful not to be too SE-centric; ICON and Arpege both show temps over Cornwall/W Wales/NI some 10-15C lower than East Anglia.

It's an odd one because their resolution is similar to the ops of a few years ago. I don't recall the ops back then undershooting temps so dramatically. On a slightly different note I have come to trust the Arpege temperature forecasts more than most other models. I was initially sceptical of the high values it often churns out but they are often a lot closer to the mark than GFS.