Remove ads from site
It's an odd one because their resolution is similar to the ops of a few years ago. I don't recall the ops back then undershooting temps so dramatically. On a slightly different note I have come to trust the Arpege temperature forecasts more than most other models. I was initially sceptical of the high values it often churns out but they are often a lot closer to the mark than GFS.
Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze
The 'Harmonie' short range hi res I find tends to be close to the mark regarding temps, though during heatwave conditions, it can go a little over the top at times. Data from this model doesn't seem to be readily available but you can get Meteograms (which also shows range of spread) for major towns and cities across N. Europe c/o the Dutch Met Office (DMI)
This page is set to London:
https://www.dmi.dk/lokation/show/GB/2643743/London/
Any data from 3 days onwards is from the ECMWF.
*That should read the 'Danish' met office... slow on the uptake this morn.
ECM has another mini plume day 8/9 15c 850s into the SE again. The heat in Europe is astonishing and doesn't seem to be going anywhere out to day 10 at least. So more extreme heat for the UK is probably likely if we can get the right set up again.
I think Arôme is the best for localised max temps, but sadly only goes out a couple of days due to its very high resolution.
Originally Posted by: TimS
ECM is excellent: see here: (this is for Kent, but any county can be selected)
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/118f9c5ed1e62f483b855b82b158f827/temperature/20190725-1600z.html
ECM temps for Thursday 36c for London, 37c Kent, 38c again for Gravesend area.
Remember you can normally add 1c to 3c to these for the UK max! Yesterday being a case in point ECM was no higher than 22c for the SE. UK max 25.2c in Writtle.
Remember you can normally add 1c to 3c to these for the UK max!
Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman
Its just astonishing. I really hope we at least get the July record. But it would be wonderful to get the UK record as well.
Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013
Personally I think we will just fall short of the all time record. I think the July record is definitely on though. My punt something like 37.5c.
Some sort of reload is appearing the GEFS too. I don't think summer is done with us yet.
Iphone app now showing 37C for Thursday
I find it astonishing but a little worrying at the same time. The increasing frequency of these outbreaks does not bode well for our future. They are also life-threatening conditions for the vulnerable, just as much as severe cold in winter.
Yep, there it is. First time ever.
Originally Posted by: Whether Idle
Lower Stoke in around 34C zone and a bit further west in Hoo area is 35C while 33C over Isle of Grain, their hottest temps is only 30C the highest so it might break on Thursday. Very interesting times ahead.
Arpege has a max of 42c for Belgium on Thursday that's about 4c higher than its all time max. Paris has 43c these are temps that just weren't possible 20/30 years ago.
Lower stoke< Kent on app show 35C so the chart shown by Whether Idle is correct for this area just 2 miles from the coast. Big drop to 24C on Friday so I will be at work so right timing for the heatwave to strike while I am off.
Originally Posted by: Jiries
How are you finding you new location Jiries.
Such a shame Gravesend is no longer running, it would be in prime position this week and I reckon would maybe see 39C. ICON has the highest temps around Cambridge, though ,showing 37C there.
Originally Posted by: Rob K
Does the metoffice have a full list of their official sites?
Brogdale (current record holder) is the one to watch.
Someone should start a heatwave thread...
Brogdale (Faversham) got the prize last year too - 35.3C on 26th July. The most remarkable thing about that is it got the minimum for the year too, -14.2C on the 28th Feb.
Map here but it's a but out of date as it still shows Gravesend. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-synoptic-and-climate-stations
Its the "continental touch" as my Dad aptly put it to me once. Kent can get a taste of that climate, IF the conditions are perfect.
The 03Z run of the UKV model is showing 39C for London (chart posted at NW: https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_07/39c.png )