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Last nights ecm total max out 94F updates in a couple of hours
https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro
Another good set for London numbers increasing again later
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=0&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0
Yep I see also added Temp 2 across the set
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php
GEM has some interesting ensembles this morning. Rather different to the flat line and consensus implies by GEFS.
ECM maxes similar to previous runs. After usual adjustments to ECM raw data, we may expect the following maximums this week:
Monday 30C
Tuesday 34C
Wednesday 35C
Thursday 38C
Friday 30C
However, the highest temperatures are dependent on the pattern not shifting any further east.
Looking at the forecast this morning it's going to be a three day heatwave at best. 34c possible in usual places - probably Northolt and Heathrow Airport again like last time. All over by Friday.
34C will be easily surpassed.
Time will tell.
From what I remember, the BBC were pretty much on the mark with their predictions of what the highest temperatures would be in the late June mini-heatwave, so we shall see what their thoughts are for this coming week.
What does seem fairly likely now from the output I can see is that the change to fresher weather will arrive by Friday, as is indicated by this morning's UKMO run and their updated text forecast quoted in the media thread.
From what I remember, the BBC were pretty much on the mark with their predictions of what the highest temperatures would be in the late June mini-heatwave, so we shall see what their thoughts are for this coming week.What does seem fairly likely now from the output I can see is that the change to fresher weather will arrive by Friday, as is indicated by this morning's UKMO run and their updated text forecast quoted in the media thread.
The GFS brings fresher weather to Central parts on Wednesday and for the West this is a non event.
just hope its not a thundery breakdown as could do without another flood in the garage as per Friday night
the previous heatwave ended calmly with a dry cold front pushing through, there was no precip left on it by the time it got here
Run 10 of the GEFS is pretty crazy. It keeps the heat going until the 28th: 33C max on the 28th and then 15C daytime max on the 30th!
The BBC week ahead forecast is predicting an area of thundery showers or storms moving north during Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with another band of rain/showers/storms gradually moving east later on Thursday into Friday.
Encouraging to see at least 2 potential days of hot holiday for me at only <4 days out; chances increase as the window closes.I'm still very interested in what happens after the weekend, and how much increasing heights over Greenland affect the track & intensity of these lows developing; early indications from the GFS OP suggest maybe a ridge nosing in from the SW around Tuesday. Here's this Thursday:
12z GFS is extremely hot on Thursday.I’ve looked at the HD chart and I think it’s showing 36-37C. But it’s not clear, can someone confirm
It looks like 38c in the london area to me but its not clear
Arpege maxes for next week Monday 30c, Tuesday 34c, Wednesday 32c , Thursday 36c.
Also 43c in the Paris area on Thursday. truly extraordinary!
Some very warm -stifling- nights forecast around the Capital; not sure what the record UK night min is but 25C in London area at 5am looks - well- unsleepable.