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Polar Low
19 July 2019 19:01:27

24 uppers on that little low has it heads into Kent amazing stuff


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwf.aspx?run=12&charthour=144&chartname=thickuk&chartregion=uk&charttag=UK%20thickness%20+%20850%20C


 


Although ECM shunts the plume further east, it maintains the thundery potential with little running heat lows and troughs in the southerly flow.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Polar Low
19 July 2019 19:36:53

Record under threat if 3 came off imo good heat pool 24 uppers gentle s/e wind France roasting at that time little disturbance .


serious heat 35C London given usual correction factors not added on'



 


 

Downpour
19 July 2019 19:42:36
Just another good day with the models, if you like summer weather. To be absolutely honest, posts from Ian Brown are just downright misleading. I have no idea why he does it. 30-35c widely Mon-Thu. 22-26c Fri-Mon is what the models show, in the SE quadrant at least.
Chingford
London E4
147ft
Polar Low
19 July 2019 19:44:59

Head to High Beach for some shade  Nice Place


 


Just another good day with the models, if you like summer weather. To be absolutely honest, posts from Ian Brown are just downright misleading. I have no idea why he does it. 30-35c widely Mon-Thu. 22-26c Fri-Mon is what the models show, in the SE quadrant at least.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Downpour
19 July 2019 19:52:22


Head to High Beach for some shade  Nice Place


 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


Beautiful place. Am up there most weekends mountain biking with my son. Back there Monday!


Chingford
London E4
147ft
JACKO4EVER
19 July 2019 20:12:24
Some serious heat on offer for the SE crew now beginning of next week, thereafter a cool down to lower to mid 20’s. No sign of a prolonged hot spell as this summer ticks on by
White Meadows
19 July 2019 20:36:36

Just another good day with the models, if you like summer weather. To be absolutely honest, posts from Ian Brown are just downright misleading. I have no idea why he does it. 30-35c widely Mon-Thu. 22-26c Fri-Mon is what the models show, in the SE quadrant at least.

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


yep looking fantastic for the south generally. To be honest with Shroppers it’s best to ignore all posts as his only objective here is to wind anyone up with any remote interest in weather extremes. That’s it. No other reason. I cannot imagine anyone consistently trying to confuse and mislead against real output has a genuine interest in weather or model forecasting tools. 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
19 July 2019 20:43:11

Some serious heat on offer for the SE crew now beginning of next week, thereafter a cool down to lower to mid 20’s. No sign of a prolonged hot spell as this summer ticks on by

Originally Posted by: JACKO4EVER 


Whilst there is some truth in that - nothing long lasting enough to count as prolonged so far - it’s actually pretty rare to get a “prolonged hot spell” if you mean a week or more of 28+ temperatures and at least 4 or 5 days of 30 in there.


From recollection in my lifetime (I was born in 76) I think it’s happened 10 times: 1983, 1989, 1990, 1994(?), 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2013, 2018. Roughly once every 4 years on average. Actually not dissimilar to the return period of a prolonged snowy spell of several days with snow on the ground in the South.


Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Polar Low
19 July 2019 20:58:04

Crikey ecm also gives 35C in the Essex area not far from me.


https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/temperature/20190725-1200z.html


 


 


 



Record under threat if 3 came off imo good heat pool 24 uppers gentle s/e wind France roasting at that time little disturbance .


serious heat 35C London given usual correction factors not added on'



 


 


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

SJV
19 July 2019 21:32:02


 


Whilst there is some truth in that - nothing long lasting enough to count as prolonged so far - it’s actually pretty rare to get a “prolonged hot spell” if you mean a week or more of 28+ temperatures and at least 4 or 5 days of 30 in there.


Originally Posted by: TimS 


Yes you're living in the wrong country if you're expecting a prolonged hot spell every summer. Take the heat when it comes, as it is next week  We've had a number of very nice spells so far in spring and summer, some more anomalous than others 

Rob K
20 July 2019 05:23:28
Morning all. A quick glance at the GEFS shows that the cluster giving a prolonged hot spell has all but disappeared, however we still have a very potent blast of heat coming up in the next few days. 🙂
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Shropshire
20 July 2019 06:03:40

Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. 


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Brian Gaze
20 July 2019 06:11:25


Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


The current unsettled spell has delivered 7.8mm of rain here. I'll be interested to see whether the next one is more productive.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2019 06:38:18


Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Still a bit pessimistic, I see. I'd go with 'average' as a description for the next week or so, though GFS charts for early August (FI, I know) look really cool all the way across the Atlantic and into Scandinavia.


For the level of heat forecast for next week, the breakdown, now looking most likely on Thursday, appears to be a relatively quiet affair with the hot air withdrawing gracefully eastwards -though BBC WftWA was hedging its bets, offering a second and  less likely alternative model output of a significant heat low over Biscay of the sort which would really deliver thunderstorms


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Tim A
20 July 2019 06:38:34


Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


Lol Ian come on. You got better for a while in the last couple of years stop it with the deliberate wind up comments.


Temperatures return to normal or even slightly above e.g Always at least 20c here on the latest GFS run after the hot spell, typical summer weather.


Yesterday  was a cool and unsettled day here at 17c max and there are no days in the output as cool as that for here. 


 


ECM  out up to 168hours , hardly cool and unsettled either. 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
Weathermac
20 July 2019 06:41:15


Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. 


Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


That's slightly misleading as ECM shows pressure still relatively high across the southern uk and GFS for that matter has most of the cool unsettled weather towards the nw so probably weather will be in line with the met office update yesterday ie a nw/se split.

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2019 06:51:29
Well it was fun watching those extreme record model runs while they lasted. We seem to have some form of consensus now on duration and intensity. There’s no real theme or pattern for the week after the heatwave. Will be interesting to see what evolve, as it’s into the core school holiday period. Stays above average on the near continent.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Shropshire
20 July 2019 07:06:31

ECM brings the front across on Wednesday so cooler air into Western and Central areas earlier than the UKMO and GFS.


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2019 07:12:04


 


The current unsettled spell has delivered 7.8mm of rain here. I'll be interested to see whether the next one is more productive.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


You must have been just too far NW for the heavy rain. Even Reading recorded 14mm to midnight, and there was a lot more further east and south after that. More figures in the July pptn and convection threads to support this.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
20 July 2019 07:25:11

ECM keeps it potentially hot in the south east out to 240.






Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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