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Brian Gaze
20 July 2019 13:44:12

The discussion in here has been a lot better on the whole since the thread was closed in May. However in recent days I have noticed a few off topics posts creeping back in. If you have an issue with another member raise it with me or one of the mods rather than publicly here. 


If you haven't read the thread in the FA discussing the MO please take a look. It is us here:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&t=20046


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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David M Porter
20 July 2019 16:19:10


Well yes ECM vainly holding the heat a little longer but there is agreement for the heatwave to be quite short before it turns more unsettled which ties in with John Hammond,s look ahead forecast of a cooler wetter spell from the 29th. 


 Of course it might all change again in the next day or two.


Originally Posted by: bledur 


Knowing what the model output has often been like this summer, it probably will change again.


The theme of the output this summer generally so far is that anything for more than 5-6 days ahead has more often than not been subject to change. It is now looking more likely that the mini-heatwave will be pretty much over by Friday, but time will tell as to whether or not it will be the start of a prolonged cooler and more unsettled spell.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2019 16:39:12
GFS 12 marginally more progressive than 06 but more settled after the breakdown up to 240.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like an early Thurs breakdown then northern blocking.

ICON slower to break down than GFS and starts ridging from Scandinavia thereafter before a nasty little low swings in.

GEM similar to ICON up to 168.

Actually a fair amount of similarity between the models this evening.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
David M Porter
20 July 2019 17:03:37

GFS 12 marginally more progressive than 06 but more settled after the breakdown up to 240.

UKMO hard to judge but looks like an early Thurs breakdown then northern blocking.

ICON slower to break down than GFS and starts ridging from Scandinavia thereafter before a nasty little low swings in.

GEM similar to ICON up to 168.

Actually a fair amount of similarity between the models this evening.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


This has been the biggest barrier during this summer thus far to us getting a sustained settled spell, like we saw for much of the time during the first two-thirds of last summer. What I have noticed in the output quite regularly since late May/early June is that pressure over Greenland seems to have been fairly high for much of the time, and as a result the jet stream has not stayed to the north of the UK for long. Hopefully that will change as we go into August, but we shall see.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Heavy Weather 2013
20 July 2019 17:42:11
I think what’s remarkable is that 33C used to be a meltdown moment. Now it’s a run of the mill.

I was telling a mate the other day about 2003. What a week that that was.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
RobN
  • RobN
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2019 18:34:49

GFS Op has big NW-SE split in the rainfall totals over next 10 days.


NW Scotland washout


Sussex and Kent arid



Rob
In the flatlands of South Cambridgeshire 15m ASL.
Nick Gilly
20 July 2019 18:35:32

I think what’s remarkable is that 33C used to be a meltdown moment. Now it’s a run of the mill.

I was telling a mate the other day about 2003. What a week that that was.

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


Indeed. The 35C barrier is another one. It looks like it happened in 11 years of the 20th century (may need revising as Trevor Harley is still updating his weather pages), but it has already happened 4 times this century, in 2003, 2006, 2015 and 2018. Will we be able to add 2019 to that list? We'll have to wait and see...

Heavy Weather 2013
20 July 2019 18:39:48


 


 


Indeed. The 35C barrier is another one. It looks like it happened in 11 years of the 20th century (may need revising as Trevor Harley is still updating his weather pages), but it has already happened 4 times this century, in 2003, 2006, 2015 and 2018. Will we be able to add 2019 to that list? We'll have to wait and see...


Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 


I think we will hit 35C. I’ve got a sneaking suspicion we’ll hit the July record as well


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2019 19:42:49
No to July record, but 35C could be on. It seems we can tap into hot air quite easily these days but we still struggle to turn those dream FI charts into reality. There have been many dozens of runs over the last 5 or 6 years giving over a week of record-threatening temperatures but they’ve not yet come to pass.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Polar Low
20 July 2019 19:52:02

36C on the raw at 120 apparently can we add a couple on?


850,s at that time



Limited sea modification in that s/e corner at that time



 


No to July record, but 35C could be on. It seems we can tap into hot air quite easily these days but we still struggle to turn those dream FI charts into reality. There have been many dozens of runs over the last 5 or 6 years giving over a week of record-threatening temperatures but they’ve not yet come to pass.

Originally Posted by: TimS 

TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2019 20:07:39
Bit of cloud seeding over the central Atlantic needed to dull down that pump low a bit.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Polar Low
20 July 2019 20:09:43

That has 35C building 16.00 I cant quite spot it, I cant seem to get 1 hour steps at that time scale 


https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/temperature/20190725-1500z.html

Polar Low
20 July 2019 20:19:39

  MWB with about 75% of members either as hot or hotter than the op - also maybe half with the heat backed a bit further west. Certainly 35C or slightly higher starting to look a good call for that day. 


My assessment is that 38C, 39C or even 40C still cannot be ruled out, and now just at D4-D6. 

Polar Low
20 July 2019 20:27:38

Just 120 hours away


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

Polar Low
20 July 2019 20:35:08

you dont get many ecm means looking like that at 72



 

Polar Low
20 July 2019 20:40:45

Darrens specials has 86F by 1300 Tuesday


https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/essentials

Ally Pally Snowman
20 July 2019 20:43:16

Agree with Polar Low , 37c isn't out the question ECM especially producing very hot charts 72/120h mark.  You can normally add a couple of degrees to their temp max charts. This one seems to be going under the radar for a lot of people after the hype of the late June heatwave that was really just 1 day.


Ecm also now has consistently very warm temps from 144h to 240h for the SE and EA at least mid to high 20s after the heatwave and mostly settled judging by the mean.


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Polar Low
20 July 2019 20:45:56

Thanks your the first one since the days of YD



Agree with Polar Low , 37c isn't out the question ECM especially producing very hot charts 72/120h mark.  You can normally add a couple of degrees to their temp max charts. This one seems to be going under the radar for a lot of people after the hype of the late June heatwave that was really just 1 day.


Ecm also now has consistently very warm temps from 144h to 240h for the SE and EA at least mid to high after the heatwave and mostly settled judging by the mean.


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

bledur
20 July 2019 21:38:25


Just 120 hours away


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

Same day , different take 


TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2019 22:04:32
GFS 18z so far (to Thurs) subtly different with orientation of the swooping low. More SW-NE rather than SE-NW, so lower uppers but possibly longer until breakdown.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 July 2019 22:31:25

GFS 18z so far (to Thurs) subtly different with orientation of the swooping low. More SW-NE rather than SE-NW, so lower uppers but possibly longer until breakdown.

Originally Posted by: TimS 


Supported by BBC WftWA now saying breakdown on Friday - and still hedging bets about -just possibly - a thundery low in Biscay as scenario 2


EDIT - added Sunday am - the above confirmed by ensembles, ECM and GFS charts this morning, though ECM keeps it pleasantly warm in the south. Mildly surprising that there's no indication of more than scattered storms associated with the breakdown.


Further ahead, the agreement of the ensembles for the foreseeable for a spell of close-to-average temps and pptn looks too good to be true - there ought to be some outliers, one way or another! Particularly since both GFS  and ECM main charts each bring in a depression across the UK, ECM sooner and GFS later. I don't regard the outputs as predictable at the moment. 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Ally Pally Snowman
21 July 2019 07:18:20

ECM keeps the heat going to Friday this morning 29c forecast for Essex , it also has 36c on thursday so close to record territory. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
TimS
  • TimS
  • Advanced Member
21 July 2019 07:23:09
GEM has some interesting ensembles this morning. Rather different to the flat line and consensus implies by GEFS.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Gusty
21 July 2019 07:32:21

ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.


Image may contain: text


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superteacher
21 July 2019 07:50:18


ECM continues to send up near record breaking temperatures on Thursday with 37c fairly widespread across the far SE.


Image may contain: text


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


And those are raw values, so possibly a degree or two could go on top.

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