Some serious heat on offer for the SE crew now beginning of next week, thereafter a cool down to lower to mid 20’s. No sign of a prolonged hot spell as this summer ticks on by

yep looking fantastic for the south generally. To be honest with Shroppers it’s best to ignore all posts as his only objective here is to wind anyone up with any remote interest in weather extremes. That’s it. No other reason. I cannot imagine anyone consistently trying to confuse and mislead against real output has a genuine interest in weather or model forecasting tools. 

Whilst there is some truth in that - nothing long lasting enough to count as prolonged so far - it’s actually pretty rare to get a “prolonged hot spell” if you mean a week or more of 28+ temperatures and at least 4 or 5 days of 30 in there.

From recollection in my lifetime (I was born in 76) I think it’s happened 10 times: 1983, 1989, 1990, 1994(?), 1995, 1997, 2003, 2006, 2013, 2018. Roughly once every 4 years on average. Actually not dissimilar to the return period of a prolonged snowy spell of several days with snow on the ground in the South.

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Crikey ecm also gives 35C in the Essex area not far from me.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/d9409acde1dee6f24e1e387817db7dfa/temperature/20190725-1200z.html

 

 

 

Yes you're living in the wrong country if you're expecting a prolonged hot spell every summer. Take the heat when it comes, as it is next week  We've had a number of very nice spells so far in spring and summer, some more anomalous than others 

Morning all. A quick glance at the GEFS shows that the cluster giving a prolonged hot spell has all but disappeared, however we still have a very potent blast of heat coming up in the next few days. 🙂

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Models now in agreement on a cool and unsettled spell from late next week. 

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The current unsettled spell has delivered 7.8mm of rain here. I'll be interested to see whether the next one is more productive.

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Still a bit pessimistic, I see. I'd go with 'average' as a description for the next week or so, though GFS charts for early August (FI, I know) look really cool all the way across the Atlantic and into Scandinavia.

For the level of heat forecast for next week, the breakdown, now looking most likely on Thursday, appears to be a relatively quiet affair with the hot air withdrawing gracefully eastwards -though BBC WftWA was hedging its bets, offering a second and  less likely alternative model output of a significant heat low over Biscay of the sort which would really deliver thunderstorms

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Lol Ian come on. You got better for a while in the last couple of years stop it with the deliberate wind up comments.

Temperatures return to normal or even slightly above e.g Always at least 20c here on the latest GFS run after the hot spell, typical summer weather.

Yesterday  was a cool and unsettled day here at 17c max and there are no days in the output as cool as that for here. 

 

ECM  out up to 168hours , hardly cool and unsettled either. 

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That's slightly misleading as ECM shows pressure still relatively high across the southern uk and GFS for that matter has most of the cool unsettled weather towards the nw so probably weather will be in line with the met office update yesterday ie a nw/se split.

Well it was fun watching those extreme record model runs while they lasted. We seem to have some form of consensus now on duration and intensity. There’s no real theme or pattern for the week after the heatwave. Will be interesting to see what evolve, as it’s into the core school holiday period. Stays above average on the near continent.

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ECM brings the front across on Wednesday so cooler air into Western and Central areas earlier than the UKMO and GFS.

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You must have been just too far NW for the heavy rain. Even Reading recorded 14mm to midnight, and there was a lot more further east and south after that. More figures in the July pptn and convection threads to support this.

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ECM keeps it potentially hot in the south east out to 240.

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Gotta love the ECM keeps it hot in the SE out to day 10. Hopefully it's playing a blinder here as its different to most other output. 

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A stunning run. I don’t think it’ll work out quite like that though. More likely that the dome shunts east and the Azores high nudges in, which keeps it warm, but not hot, in the SE.

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ECM means would suggest many of the ensembles back a similar evolution to the op. Heat hangs on in the SE +15c 850s, until Friday.  then remains very warm in the south with high pressure building in.  Basically very good.

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2m temperatures from the 0z ECM ENS for De Bilt

https://www.weerplaza.nl/gdata/eps/eps_pluim_tt_06260.png

Still uncertainty for the end of next week. A cluster of runs going for cooler conditions from Friday. Control run very cool on Saturday but Op run stays very hot until Saturday.

Beyond that a general trend to cooler conditions (but probably still close to average) by the start of August.

Looking at UKMO the start of next week looks increasingly hot and dry away from west

By mid-week we start to see showers breaking out with the heat around these are likely to be torrential and thundery where they do develop

Towards the end of the week we continue to see some rain/showers but with fresher air from the west

Shame, I'd rather have seen a continuation of the pleasantly warm, dry conditions but it's not to be.

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The night-time temps shown by the BBC for next week suggest to me that humidity will be quite high in many areas next week, until the fresher air moves in. I'd rather that it wasn't too humid as it is hellish for me trying to get to sleep at night.

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06z GFS evolves in a similar way to 00z next week. Thursday hot but cold front Thurs pm into Friday and fresh thereafter.

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Slight improvement in the GFS Ens: quick look at the 2m T postage stamps gives a mean on Wed a degree up on the earlier run. Thursday still best bet as the transition day. But that's 5 days away- could shift a day either way; the enhancing low that spoils the show hasn't formed yet, and might be more or less intense & extensive than modelled. 

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Well yes ECM vainly holding the heat a little longer but there is agreement for the heatwave to be quite short before it turns more unsettled which ties in with John Hammond,s look ahead forecast of a cooler wetter spell from the 29th. 

 Of course it might all change again in the next day or two.