A little way to go yet but reasonable signs of something drier coming along towards the end of this week and for the beginning of the week after. Before that, unsettled with further spells of rain or showers.

HP positioning will as usual be important for temperature and whether it's a countrywide improvement (if it verifies).

Once LP is out of the way (around next Monday), HP settles in and develops strongly according to GFS, ECM going the same way but not as far ahead. GFS showing sting in the tail as HP retrogresses and shows cold Arctic stuff coming down the N Sea at the very end of the month

FAX also shows a wet weekend

GEFS is odd man out, quite contradictory with less rain this week and more next week, especially in the south. But for snow rampers, Inverness snow rows have a consistent 8 or 9 for the last days of the month, and even a couple of days with one snow row as far south as Birmingham

There is an Cold Arctic Northerly Flow being predicted by the GFS 12z, Greenland and Azores High might create A North Atlantic Two High block with Low Pressure to the East and NNE and to the West ahem.

There are more runs needed.  24th to 27th October 2019- could that cold air cross UK from Arctic and Norwegian Sea?

Polar Low with thundersnow?.

Good to see me posting again.

LP moves out of the way on Monday as forecast for some time. Then a burst of warmth and dry weather for a few days but by the end of the week the HP has retrogressed and GFS 0z is showing a period of winds from north round to east, ECM (yesterday's 12z) less marked but their run doen't go so far forward.

Temperatures thus drop; thereis rather more rain shown on GEFS than I would expect from the synoptics. Inverness into double-digit snow row figures; even London has a '1' in its snow row for the 26th.

Very interesting output at the moment. We could get a cold shot and I think we need to look at the possibility of another very wet spell later next week.

I don't usually bother with the charts much at this time of year, since autumn weather is, well autumn weather. What I normally look out for are autumn gales.

However, the GFS output in FI is certainly noteworthy at present - if this were another month down the road, this thread would be getting a massive amount of interest.

I like the current GFS narrative (as a general, broad set-up). I'm sure detail will change as we get closer, but at the moment it's looking drier in the west at least, with the east taking the brunt of any PPN. Nice to share the wet round a bit I always think!!

Although it is as you say FI and October. I may take note in a few days beyond for casual interest. As Neil says the hills may turn white by the month’s end.

You only need go back to last year for a similar wintry spell.
Around 27th October
https://live.staticflickr.com/1938/31706648888_781c289ca6_b.jpg

Yep. We were at Alton Towers and it was bone-chillingly cold for the time of year. It had snowed there the day before and, in the morning as we were queuing to get there, we had a light flurry.

Only two months too early but I suppose there's hope that the synoptic pattern will get 'frozen' (?) in place.

 I never buy into the "too early" or "too late" line of thinking. In the UK if it snows in October or April my advice is enjoy it! Saving the synoptics for December or January doesn't work sadly.

Nah. GFS UKMO and ECMWF from 96,120,144hrs not that interesting for the UK at all.

And beyond that GFS has no idea at all- no cold Northerly flow being shown.

I guess the warmer and drier weather will return, but as it does- so will more wet and windy and cool weather or mild SW winds and heavy rain or showers mixed with sunnier spells.

Nothing special at all, it gets drier by Monday or even by Sunday I believe. 

Then Low Pressure could move in by the 24th and 25th October in it.

So diffficult for the UK to get colder weather in October, milder weather again forecasted by UKMO, GFS and ECMWF Models by Tuesday the 22nd October etc etc..

.

I'm beginning to sense that the remainder of October may be on the unsettled side, and notwithstanding the large amount of scatter in these central England ensembles. 

I do note that the precipitation spikes pick up again from 25th, so a resumption of the wetter and  unsettled theme is a distinct possibility at this stage, after somewhat of a respite later this week and early next.

Edit - In recent Octobers we've seen quite a few late plumey events.  Todays 12z GFS again plays around with this idea: one to watch and see if it is one that is dropped for a cold plunge as was showing on recent runs. 12z uppers for Halloween shown below:

Good evening to all.

There appears to be a mixed signal from ECMWF model 12z that areas of Low Pressure and cool conditions have good chance of influencing UK NE Atlantic and North Europe Airmass set up.  
It is looking chilly but 23rd October showing up as less cool..

The GFS, UKMO and ECMWF are going to experience a few twists and turns in the next 5 days.

All to play for.  Cold air in Greenland and Arctic and Norwegian Sea North Atlantic and North Europe still looks quite potent and organised player in all this.

All change this morning. Next week's forecast HP only hanging on by the skin of its teeth, and sited to the east of the UK (NI/NW Scotland not getting much of a look in). ECM shows and early breakdown with local LP back by the end of the week, GFS a more comprehensive breakdown later with cold air from the NW. Only 3 or 4 of the GEFS runs have any sign of yesterday's northeasterlies. Big variations in ens temps