Today's runs now showing Lorenzo still as a powerful storm affecting Northern Ireland and the Western Isles late Thursday into Friday but decaying quite rapidly. Models differ as to whether it decays in situ (ECM, some GEFS) or slumps SE-wards across N England as a 'normal' depression (other GEFS, FAX).

After that unsettled weather from the Atlantic continues, with occasional brief cold snaps on the tail end of passing depressions

Interesting cooling trend throughout October on the ensembles. Nothing to get excited about but an interesting trend none the less

Yes looking like it could be quite a cool and autumnal month, quite a contrast to some recent Octobers. With frost quite likely tomorrow night I'm even starting to think about getting the woodburner ready!

After a cool start September appears to have finished comfortably above CET. Not saying October will follow the same pattern but I would be cautious about the prospect of a colder month at this stage. There's hasn't been one yet this year. Also the ensembles are jumping around at the moment due to the uncertainty with Lorenzo.

The current GFS run is a cracker if all the temps were about 12*C lower.

The synoptics as far as the eye can see is just Scandi highs with Moisture laden fronts smashing into it...

Instead of white, we get brown and lots of puddles :(

Very unusual to see scandinavia getting such a cold spell so early.... its been maybe a decade since i saw something so strong so early

Track of ex-Lorenzo now generally agreed to cross N Ireland (Thu) and then SE-wards across England to East Anglia by late Friday. The intensity of the wind shown by the models varies quite a lot from GFS (quite weak) through ECM to FAX to NHC (sustained 40 mph)

After that, for a long time ahead, LP near NW Britain, wet in the north with fronts brushing the south. I wouldn't be surprised to see some secondary depressions further south turning up in due course. GFS had one at the end of its run last night, but not showing this morning.

Lots of rain, anyway http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

Finally!!

Fed up of boring Autumns!

I have notice an increase amount of rain and strong winds this Autumn so far in contrast to previous autumns .

I think could be the fact that many TS or Hurricanes are heading NE quicker instead of heading towards the eastern Seaboard - Dorian is a prime example - we had remnants of that as well as other recent ones and now Lorenzo!?

Last year many TS's and Hurricanes went into the eastern seaboard and gulf - if you recall?

Sept 2018 there was Hurricane Florence which hit South Carolina.

Sept 2017 there was Hurricane Irma - Which made landfall over south Florida?

- These coincided with drier than average autumns for the UK.

So am I but this one is turning into the worst of the lot.

I can’t imagine how the outlook could be more boring than this:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfnt07u1s 

It is just torture and an even more extreme version of the excruciating tedium that has characterised autumn over the past 20 years.

Devoid of sun, devoid of warmth, devoid of cold. More stupid double digits mins and generally write-off conditions without being remotely interesting.

I cannot recall another year when the late September/early October weather was so consistently awful and depressing. Every single day is miserable. Even years like 2014 and 2017 were nowhere near as bad as this

Lorenzo passing over the UK and decaying rapidly from 981 mb (W Ireland) to 1001 (E Anglia) - figures from FAX chart Therafter a series of Atlantic depressions seem determined to show they can do just as well though not so intense. There's one on Thursdsy 10th at 975mb over Shetland ushering in a sustained period of below average temps, but also giving some really low early winter temps over Scandinavia / NW Russia http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Further to my postin the coming winter tab - has anyone noticed the abnormally cold conditions to our north?

Its not normally this cold this early to our north, for the past decade cold has originated from the far east.

This chart wouldnt look out of place for early December. (cold pooling to our north - wise)

Quick check of temps echoes this :

Note the cold temps at sea surface - this is usually something that takes hold once Winter has arrived.  IT could be we see a large growth of sea ice to our North.  This could be a big player on our winter

[edit] Doh!  Not quite right!  It’s a Hale winter, I read about it in 2008 and the cycle is 22 years. 

Doesn't increased cold within the Arctic circle at this time of the year only serve to produce a mid-latitude sharp temperature contrast and fire up the Atlantic conveyor belt complete with cyclogenesis early in the Autumn season? Especially as there are still a lot of tropic airmasses floating around in mid-latitude.

Tuesday 8 Oct - Thursday 17 Oct

After early rain clears from the southeast, Tuesday is expected to be a windy day of sunshine and blustery showers, some heavy with hail and thunder. The unsettled weather looks set to continue for the rest of the week with scattered showers or longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures will be around average for the time of year but feeling colder in the wind and rain. Over the following weekend the weather may well remain changeable though there is less confidence about this. However, some longer drier spells may develop in the south and east. There are some signs for drier and brighter weather to develop more widely by the end of the period, increasing the risk of fog overnight.

Friday 18 Oct - Friday 1 Nov

Confidence in the forecast is low throughout this period. There are some signs for a drier, brighter and more settled spell during the middle of the month. However, changeable conditions are more likely to dominate towards the end of October, bringing further bouts of wet and windy weather. Temperatures are likely to be near or a touch above average for October, though any quieter spells could bring overnight frosts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Lorenzo should be out of the way in 24 hours or so, then it's a series of Atlantic depressions. For a couple of days the HP block over Scandinavia holds them up with fronts stalling over the UK, but after that GFS 0z keeps them north of Scotland. ECM  has a deeper LP further south on the 13th bringing down some quite cold air. GEFS shows temps below average until then, after which there is less certainty but some hope for late warmth.

General westerly pattern with all the variability that implies, unsettled and mostly on the cool side, GFS and ECM agree on a more southerly tracking LP in the week beginning 13th, with a blocking high over Greenland.

Snow cover over Eurasis has jumped this last week https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

Excelent site that is - I look at it often - This past week snowcover in Eastern Siberia has increased rapidly.

16th Oct - Scotland's First snow of the season?? One model and one run! - We shall see?

Both operational and Control run look cold anyway, but operational wants to build a stronger 'block' of HP over Greenland!!

Op

Control:

General agreement on depressions rolling across the UK for the next 10+ days and thus unsettled, rain everywhere but more in the north, cool everywhere but less so in the south. Snow? only for the tops in Scotland IMO

Watch out for occasional more intense LP further south, though these are likely to come and go with each successive run. Yesterday the 13th was the favoured date, now put back to later that week. HP over Greenland is a feature, but not linking up with anything over Scandi so plenty of room for LP to run SW-NE across the Atlantic.

Continuing unsettled, as before. At the end of the GFS run, after the 20th, there is a break in the pattern with a southerly-tracking low, matched with the jet stream dipping a long way south. This matches a sudden uptick in GEFS rainfall totals for the south. at that time

But that's all a long way off so could change

Latest MetOffice GLOSEA5 Zonal Wind and Polar Cap height Charts for October into November suggests a strong vortex aloft feeding down into lower levels #PolarVortex Any Thoughts @judah47 @MJVentrice pic.twitter.com/ixX0pDRxn8

— Met-Set (@Met_Set_UK) October 6, 2019

Any thoughts? Yes - horribly depressing news :-(

So we have to wait for winter 2020-21 and hope that one delivers.

From the Coming Winter 2019/20 thread:

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

 As far as I've come to understand it, the most efficient transport of anomalous heat to the mid then upper stratosphere occurs when there's a single, large polar vortex, on the periphery of which is a 'surf zone' that aids the upward transport. So if you have a vortex that keeps stretching and splitting in the lower levels especially, as we've had in many recent winters, it takes a lot more effort from the troposphere to bring about a major SSW.

In other words, a strong and well-formed polar vortex might be precisely what you want in order for a sudden stratospheric warming to occur, along with the chance of a memorable winter.

It would certainly explain why an uptick in Winter Is Over posts is so often followed by a spell of cold and snow.