You have a good point about cold winds from certain directions, first week of November and apparently whole of Finland below zero today 

https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/weather/inari/saariselka?map=temperaturemax

And already there is coastal sea ice in Baltic (some years it is early December)

http://www.smhi.se/oceanografi/istjanst/produkter/sstcolor.pdf

The change today in the models compared with the more amplified options we have seen the last few days and especially the difference between the 0z ecm and the 12z from yesterday really brings home to me the folly of 1) looking beyond a week at most and 2) any in depth discussion on what the models are showing beyond this time frame other than a passing remark perhaps.

The ecm 0z run today could not look more different than yesterdays 12z that is why I hardly ever comment these days in the model output thread unless of course winter nivarna was being modeled within t120 which it rarely is. Several times already this autumn we have seen the models try and amplify the pattern with northern blocking etc only for it to implode within t168.

Model watching is fun but can be a complete waste of time as well especially when like netweather every run is analysed to death and outdated within a day or two. 

Just looked at my Weather Pro weather app (uses data from ECM/EPS if I recall).

No sign of double figures in Manchester for the foreseeable future (right through to 13th November).

I would guess that is relatively unusual for the time of year. 

Cold and unsettled. 

417 consecutive months of above average temperatures globally

Incredible 

Info from C Fawkes 

October was actually colder than average for the UK 

Again strength of zonal winds @10hpa will be weakening after strengthening towards middle and end of November:

NAO around neutral but AO going very negative:

+4.

Very Slow 12z GFS today.

Climate Change is happening mr Trump.

Nice to see UKMO and ICON give Central and East to NE USA SW to NE moving Jet STm PV Lows.

Blocking Far East and SE USA, West N Atlantic with High P.

Newfoundland PV Low head SE on Saturday and Sunday to Northwest Atlantic then push it SE wards through Central N Atlantic and to West Europe and the UK.

GFS- America. Nice to see UKMO and ICON models High Pressure over Greenland and Iceland plus Norwegian Sea and Arctic High = Negative AO and NAO.

What will this evenings ECMWF show us UK people- wet and windy November weather with below average temperatures or near average.

I am able handle GFS and ECMWF and others flip flopping each 24 hours.

.

GFS 12z Model Output looks very good for the North Atlantic UK and Europe - domination of Cool and Chilly weather some cold conditions- average and below average temperatures and plenty of Low Pressure tracking from the NW - SE wards hmm.

Happy with ICON, UKMO and GFS.

High Pressure to our North and NW and NE, and also in Central to East USA - more further SE there you go...

Western N Atlantic High Pressure- NE USA PV Low yes, but through North USA areas that is good.

Cold Zonality in November is being shown for UK and West Europe. Greenland and Iceland Cold high pressure and same over the Norwegian Sea and the Arctic Sea to our North and NE.

.

This evening's ECMWF Output is hopefully going to support this forecast for Saturday and Next week, and also this week Thursday and Friday UK wet and windy chilly weather. Cold and chilly on Saturday- Sunday as well.

Weather in a state of flux at the moment - let's hope Ventrice is right about this however:

Seeing a favorable Siberia-Aleutian pattern emerge in 1-2 weeks that supports upward wave flux into the stratosphere. This will likely result in a "Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event" during December. No telling whether this event is minor or major at these leads. pic.twitter.com/dNhvbzEigN

— Michael Ventrice (@MJVentrice) November 6, 2019

yes some subtle hints, decent northern blocking on some runs, I for one think the overall background patterns fascinating atm. With decent projections for AO and NAO, this slow burning situation could explode into winter proper come the close of the month. 

Indeed, or come to nothing at all!

A build in high pressure from the south to dry things up and warm things up would suit most of us here. A cool and wet outlook is not an exciting prospect. There are signs of something warmer in the form of outliers at the moment but far too far into FI to take seriously. :)

He's a good pundit but I do hope we're not already having to roll the dice for an SSW.  

 its the way you tell them. 

Good god that was so painful at the end of last winter. Didn’t it start in December and we waited the whole of the winter for the results to propergate downwards to a square route of 0 😂

Yes but surely, Steve, by now warmers mean less dry most often. Other than an extending breezy Azores ridge or a Bartlett with enough flow to prevent fog, most places must expect either warm or dry?

More immediately the outlook (illustrated by the image below which is based solely on the 12z GFS op run) is a consistently colder than average one:

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png 

Indeed so much 'potential' but we say that most years eh?

But nice to see all the same 

Briefly this morning:

GFS showing LPs to about the 17th then HP over Scandi with ridge to UK

ECM the same but the HP is at the very end of its run so not fully developed

GEFS consistent with this, cool this week with widespread rain, after that drier N&W, a few intermittent spikes in SE, temps recovering to average

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 shows the current blocking over E Europe nicely (I assume the pptn over Scandi is from the last of the depressions before the HP sets up)

06z GFS should raise a few eyebrows. Loaded with potential

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

OK 850s are not dramatically cold, but its an interesting development nonetheless