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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
20 October 2019 06:06:44

Forget the confident predictions of HP establishing in the coming week. Instead there's a mixed bag of transient Hp and/or weak ridges with occasional incursions of LP. Both ECM and GFS do roughly agree from the 27th with major depressions in the Atlantic andover N Russia, and HP then developing over the UK, strongly according to ECM, less so in GFS. That is however contradicted by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 showing a lot of pptn all across the UK at that time.


And GEFS? For England, dry this coming week, a bit more rain next, temps above average to start with then dropping back. Scotland and NI much more of a scramble with no clear pattern.


Low confidence in all outcomes IMO - keep watching


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Russwirral
20 October 2019 19:32:04
Friday looks very interesting... could see snow to quite low levels where the rain is heavy enough. A big pool of cold air to our northwest being tapped into
briggsy6
20 October 2019 20:24:45

A chance of my favourite Autumn weather on Tuesday,according to BBC Weather for the Week Ahead: a misty foggy morning. I love it when the first rays of weak morning sun highlight the spiders webs in the holly hedge next to the house. Sorry if I've said all this before.


Location: Uxbridge
Russwirral
20 October 2019 22:41:53
Friday looking more interesting for disruptive snowfall for some areas of northern england. The risk could extend more south as the week goes on

One to watch
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
21 October 2019 06:36:28

Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there.


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
ballamar
21 October 2019 06:53:14
ECM looks like it could be a chilly Halloween. GFS potential split vortex with maybe an early cold shot if the high can build in the right spot. Obviously nothing too cold but more interesting November coming up than mild 13/14 degree days with double figures at night
Russwirral
21 October 2019 11:24:11

Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc


 


Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days.  Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month  


 


Netweather GFS Image


tallyho_83
21 October 2019 13:08:29


Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc


 


Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days.  Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month  


 


Netweather GFS Image


Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


Sat 27th Oct Last year it tried to sleet before the rain diminished and went back to light drizzle.




 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
21 October 2019 13:10:58

Again a northerly at 240 says the ECM:


Quite a cold and snowy/wintry scene for many parts of Scandinavia!- However, we are just on the edge of it if this materialises!?



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


picturesareme
21 October 2019 13:41:53


Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4


I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there.


 


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Some sleet for the Cheviots Friday night Saturday - Northumberland.

Russwirral
21 October 2019 16:34:39
Upgrade for snow for north midlands for friday

Im hoping it slips further south again. Im meant to be playing golf friday at 11am.
Brian Gaze
21 October 2019 17:14:06

Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again.



Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Russwirral
21 October 2019 22:08:45
Friday continues to model the feature further south

Chilterns could be in the firing line by tomorrows run
beanoir
21 October 2019 22:42:22

Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style.


Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... 


Langford, Bedfordshire
haggishunter
21 October 2019 22:59:32


Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style.


Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... 


Originally Posted by: beanoir 


Think the clocks going back next week might stir people - though perhaps the weather might rouse attention first.


Frankly I’d rather some of the charts we are seeing now appear from late Nov on rather than now. But the very split with over 15 and times near or over 20°c spread in the Aberdeen ensembles was something I noticed a lot last winter.

Heavy Weather 2013
22 October 2019 05:49:36
25 October looks like a key day. Anything can happen after that day, but the switch in the Ensembles overnight with more cool runs suggest something is afoot.
Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Tim A
22 October 2019 06:21:54


Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again.



Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Is GFS just acting bizarrely  though? ECM is nowhere near this type of scenerio. 


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl

 My PWS 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
22 October 2019 06:43:18

Longer term ... remember a few days back when this week (beginning ca 20th) was going to be all HP dominated ? Forget it, LP near Sctland dominating. But hope springs eternal, both GFS and ECM have served it up again the following week (i.e. from 27th), over or just to the east of the UK - and if you want to take a punt on further ahead, GFS brings back LP, not deep but well south over England the week after that.


But low confidence - after an agreed dip in temp around the 26th there's a wide scatter in the GEFS ens in both temp and rainfall for the whole of the rest of the forecast period


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
idj20
22 October 2019 08:53:40

Friday continues to model the feature further south

Chilterns could be in the firing line by tomorrows run

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 



Unfortunately in turn that would deliver strong south west gales to the far South East, including Kent.

How depressing - and it's not even deep Autumn yet. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Brian Gaze
22 October 2019 09:25:28


 


Think the clocks going back next week might stir people - though perhaps the weather might rouse attention first.


Frankly I’d rather some of the charts we are seeing now appear from late Nov on rather than now. But the very split with over 15 and times near or over 20°c spread in the Aberdeen ensembles was something I noticed a lot last winter.


Originally Posted by: haggishunter 


The interesting charts often appear in the autumn and spring. The jet usually fires and flattens more in the winter months. That's why my view is people should make the most of the interesting periods even if they occur in October or April. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
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