DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
14 October 2019 06:22:33
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_96_1.png 


Comment based on ECM 12z - with commitments of care 24/7 I don;t have time to check all possible models so you will continue to get whatever's the latest on the TWO chart viewer


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
14 October 2019 06:29:19
I was simply pointing out what this morning’s ECM op run shows so far and will continue to do so when it clarifies the overall picture.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_144_1.png 
JACKO4EVER
14 October 2019 12:18:54
Yeh not looking the best Doc- I had better invest in a new umbrella. We almost have the pleasure of our very own resident cut off low, still I would hope for some sunshine between the showers
Hippydave
14 October 2019 18:46:30

A little way to go yet but reasonable signs of something drier coming along towards the end of this week and for the beginning of the week after. Before that, unsettled with further spells of rain or showers.


HP positioning will as usual be important for temperature and whether it's a countrywide improvement (if it verifies).


 


 


Home: Tunbridge Wells
Work: Tonbridge
DEW
  • DEW
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15 October 2019 06:23:34

Once LP is out of the way (around next Monday), HP settles in and develops strongly according to GFS, ECM going the same way but not as far ahead. GFS showing sting in the tail as HP retrogresses and shows cold Arctic stuff coming down the N Sea at the very end of the month


FAX also shows a wet weekend


GEFS is odd man out, quite contradictory with less rain this week and more next week, especially in the south. But for snow rampers, Inverness snow rows have a consistent 8 or 9 for the last days of the month, and even a couple of days with one snow row as far south as Birmingham


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
four
  • four
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15 October 2019 07:03:53
GFS looks drier altogether this morning with a marked cold spell towards the end of the month.
ballamar
15 October 2019 19:19:39
Enjoying watching blocking take hold in the charts even though it’s only October I always believe it’s a good sign. No science just how I think it will lead to a more blocked colder winter. Nice to think if only it was......
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
15 October 2019 20:14:36

There is an Cold Arctic Northerly Flow being predicted by the GFS 12z, Greenland and Azores High might create A North Atlantic Two High block with Low Pressure to the East and NNE and to the West ahem.


There are more runs needed.  24th to 27th October 2019- could that cold air cross UK from Arctic and Norwegian Sea?


Polar Low with thundersnow?.


Good to see me posting again.
wink


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 October 2019 06:23:18

LP moves out of the way on Monday as forecast for some time. Then a burst of warmth and dry weather for a few days but by the end of the week the HP has retrogressed and GFS 0z is showing a period of winds from north round to east, ECM (yesterday's 12z) less marked but their run doen't go so far forward.


Temperatures thus drop; thereis rather more rain shown on GEFS than I would expect from the synoptics. Inverness into double-digit snow row figures; even London has a '1' in its snow row for the 26th.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
beanoir
16 October 2019 08:14:03
Given the charts we’re seeing and the time of year I’m surprised it’s so quiet here...

The ECM isn’t on board with GFS out to day 7/8 - all jff of course but some spectacular output from the GFS!
Langford, Bedfordshire
Brian Gaze
16 October 2019 08:23:52

Very interesting output at the moment. We could get a cold shot and I think we need to look at the possibility of another very wet spell later next week.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Maunder Minimum
16 October 2019 08:26:59

Originally Posted by: beanoir 

Given the charts we’re seeing and the time of year I’m surprised it’s so quiet here...

The ECM isn’t on board with GFS out to day 7/8 - all jff of course but some spectacular output from the GFS!


I don't usually bother with the charts much at this time of year, since autumn weather is, well autumn weather. What I normally look out for are autumn gales.


However, the GFS output in FI is certainly noteworthy at present - if this were another month down the road, this thread would be getting a massive amount of interest.


New world order coming.
Saint Snow
16 October 2019 08:34:28

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Very interesting output at the moment. We could get a cold shot and I think we need to look at the possibility of another very wet spell later next week.



 


I like the current GFS narrative (as a general, broad set-up). I'm sure detail will change as we get closer, but at the moment it's looking drier in the west at least, with the east taking the brunt of any PPN. Nice to share the wet round a bit I always think!!


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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nsrobins
16 October 2019 08:34:50
Do I hear the first rumblings on the rollercoaster tracks? More an oiling of the wheels maybe.
A decent signal for high latitude blocking from 25th. Highs London of 9C will feel seasonal and the mountains could go white.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
doctormog
16 October 2019 08:39:33

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 


 


I don't usually bother with the charts much at this time of year, since autumn weather is, well autumn weather. What I normally look out for are autumn gales.


However, the GFS output in FI is certainly noteworthy at present - if this were another month down the road, this thread would be getting a massive amount of interest.



Although it is as you say FI and October. I may take note in a few days beyond for casual interest. As Neil says the hills may turn white by the month’s end.


four
  • four
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16 October 2019 09:01:59

You only need go back to last year for a similar wintry spell.
Around 27th October
https://live.staticflickr.com/1938/31706648888_781c289ca6_b.jpg


Saint Snow
16 October 2019 09:10:25

Originally Posted by: four 


You only need go back to last year for a similar wintry spell.
Around 27th October
https://live.staticflickr.com/1938/31706648888_781c289ca6_b.jpg



 


Yep. We were at Alton Towers and it was bone-chillingly cold for the time of year. It had snowed there the day before and, in the morning as we were queuing to get there, we had a light flurry.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
16 October 2019 09:16:05

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Although it is as you say FI and October. I may take note in a few days beyond for casual interest. As Neil says the hills may turn white by the month’s end.



Only two months too early but I suppose there's hope that the synoptic pattern will get 'frozen' (?) in place.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Brian Gaze
16 October 2019 09:19:54

Originally Posted by: DEW 


 


Only two months too early but I suppose there's hope that the synoptic pattern will get 'frozen' (?) in place.



 I never buy into the "too early" or "too late" line of thinking. In the UK if it snows in October or April my advice is enjoy it! Saving the synoptics for December or January doesn't work sadly.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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