Russwirral
22 October 2019 10:35:54

Originally Posted by: idj20 




Unfortunately in turn that would deliver strong south west gales to the far South East, including Kent.

How depressing - and it's not even deep Autumn yet



 


Autumn is already half way done.  We're only just over a month away from Winter.


idj20
22 October 2019 12:56:07

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


 


 


Autumn is already half way done.  We're only just over a month away from Winter.




Yes, but this is Kent we're talking about where it is basically one long Autumn between October and April. 

Back on topic, GFS seems bullish about a compact but rapidly developing "runner" low zipping ENE-wards across Southern England on Friday. It's unlikely to be another Oct '87 or St Judes '13 but may be enough to give me the first proper blow of the season, along with bringing yet more unwanted rain to central parts. 

However, the other models are much less keen on it so it's either GFS overcooking things or may end up being right on the money, like it usually is when it comes to this kind of set up from afar. 



Folkestone Harbour. 
Bolty
22 October 2019 12:57:17

06Z continues the trend: cold air undercutting the rain band and turning it to snow over higher ground. Looks to me like evaporative cooling will also play a part with this, if of course the GFS has it right.



Scott
Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.
My weather station 
Saint Snow
22 October 2019 13:17:08

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Yes, but this is Kent we're talking about where it is basically one long Autumn between October and April. 



 


It's different up here.


Autumn lasts between October and October.


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
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Tim A
22 October 2019 13:41:30

Originally Posted by: Bolty 


06Z continues the trend: cold air undercutting the rain band and turning it to snow over higher ground. Looks to me like evaporative cooling will also play a part with this, if of course the GFS has it right.


 



Lots of spread on the GFS ensembles for Friday night. Most don't show any snow.  Other models such as ECM are not entertaining the idea.  The Met Office automated data is nowhere near snow conditions at any point *(8-9c).


 


 


Tim
NW Leeds
187m asl


Russwirral
22 October 2019 14:06:56

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


It's different up here.


Autumn lasts between October and October.


 


 





London and the south east enjoy drier and warmer conditions by default.  Us up north can experience Autumn at any part of the year, but only have the opportunity of some summer weather sometime around June.


 


youd think that would give us access to decent winter weather, but the south east does better again at that too. :(


tallyho_83
22 October 2019 17:49:55

This little feature coming in from the SW meeting the Northerly winds on Friday could have been a big snow event if this occurred in winter!??


Look at the huge temp gradient/contrast!? I think the GFS Op is going a bit OTT though!?




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LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
22 October 2019 19:23:49

There is good agreement to 144hrs which is good, with the forecast and pattern agreed up to that point if you look at the ECMWF and UKMO Model.


There could be rain and snow in Scotland for Friday and Saturday.  And Friday has heavy rain for S SE and ESE England on this coming Friday.


Chilly for much of the UK on Saturday to Monday (3 days with winds blowing in from the NW then North.


What the Models do for after T144 is up in the air at the moment.  Wintry showers for Scotland on Saturday as well quite possible mixed with rain at lower levels.


Will the Eastern Mid North Atlantic High stay over the Western UK on Monday to Wednesday next week- GFS says No, but ECMWF says yes.  Will this forecast upgrade or downgrade for cold weather fans.  The 12z ECMWF and 12z UKMO has a blocked out Low Pressure for the Midwest North Atlantic to our WSW and South southwest with UK and NE Atlantic High Pressure hold firmly- to T144 at Monday next week- ECMWF has cold Northerly over UK even on Wednesday/ Thursday next week while today’s 12z GFS brings the Low P NE across the UK for same time period, then drags the cold Northerly as it passes SW to ENE.


Updated Comment for period 1988 to 2023.

The Above average Winters, Spring Summer and Autumn Season in the UK, affected by El Nino and La Nina, though Cold Spells with proper frosts happen to occur in Winter's they tend to last 3-12 days.  Some 2-3 weeks of Mild SW flows are a regular thing.  UK has mixed weather in all Seasons.  It can be mild damp wet in winter, Cold frosty foggy Snowy Spells  if very lucky, or it can be frosty and cold in March to May that is the worst part, and sometimes Cloudy overcast very chilly even in May and June or even in September to November, less frost and snow.

Springs, Summer's have trended to be well above average some hot heatwaves lasting 3-5 days with greater amounts of sunshine, and all 4 seasons feature lengthy long fetch mild SW flows sometimes with strong winds and heavy rain or settled dry sunny spells. or extremely heavy thundery showers or longer spells of Thundery rain in any Season in the UK.  And 2 year long droughts.


 
ballamar
23 October 2019 06:53:17
Way off in terms of any accuracy but a very interesting chart

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH00_384_1.png 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
23 October 2019 06:53:32

Get the current LP out of the way this weekend, then HP for a while until about 31st when both GFS and ECM have LP coming in from SW and linking up with cold LP over Scandi. GFS has an impressive N plunge on the 8th but that's a long way off and GFS' record isn't good.


GEFS consistent with this but better agreement than yesterday on temps below average


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Heavy Weather 2013
23 October 2019 07:03:24

The output at the moment is fascinating. Cool to cold at times for this time of year.


 


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
nsrobins
23 October 2019 07:36:12
High res GFS still keen on the ‘zippy’ low Friday afternoon - risk severe gales S UK. The persistence of this feature lends some credibility to it so one to watch.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
idj20
23 October 2019 08:27:27

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

High res GFS still keen on the ‘zippy’ low Friday afternoon - risk severe gales S UK. The persistence of this feature lends some credibility to it so one to watch.



Although it looks like Southern coasts and the far South East actually missing out on the bulk of the general rain with Wales and the Midlands getting the brunt of that (possibly some wintry stuff over the Pennines) while here at Kent it'll be a windy but mostly dry night - at least until the squally-like cold front passes over us in the small hours of Saturday morning. 
Either or, it should do a good job in keeping the local nightclub drunks holed up indoors. 


Folkestone Harbour. 
Saint Snow
23 October 2019 09:40:56

Originally Posted by: idj20 


Either or, it should do a good job in keeping the local nightclub drunks holed up indoors. 



 


Nah, thy'll just wear a slightly thicker skin-tight t-shirt 


 


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
idj20
23 October 2019 15:30:34

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


 


 


Nah, thy'll just wear a slightly thicker skin-tight t-shirt 


 


 




 Or just drink an extra couple of shots so that they are even more drunk to notice the rain and wind after closing time. 

Anyway, back on course.

GFS seems keen on a quieter settled week next week with HP taking control, but ECM less so with another LP popping up out of nowhere in 2nd half of week. Here's hoping for more of an agreement on the quieter theme in the 12z updates.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Russwirral
23 October 2019 17:46:27
Forecast rapidly going downhill for friday into saturday for central uk. Torrential rain from 3pm friday til midday saturday

Could be widespread flooding with alot of places seeing 80mm+


Brian Gaze
23 October 2019 17:51:35

Yes. This morning I flagged up the possibility of a very wet Saturday. Definitely something to watch. All in all it continues to be a very interesting period of weather.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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idj20
23 October 2019 19:38:00

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Forecast rapidly going downhill for friday into saturday for central uk. Torrential rain from 3pm friday til midday saturday

Could be widespread flooding with alot of places seeing 80mm+



And yet  only 7 mm by the end of the weekend forecast for Kent, and that's the top end of predictions.

The Kent Rain Deflector still has some life in it.  


Folkestone Harbour. 
fairweather
23 October 2019 23:28:17

From the beginning of November there appears to be a lot of cold weather moving in to Eastern and Northern Europe, hardly surprising for the start of November but was seriously lacking last year.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
CreweCold
24 October 2019 00:28:17

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 

Forecast rapidly going downhill for friday into saturday for central uk. Torrential rain from 3pm friday til midday saturday

Could be widespread flooding with alot of places seeing 80mm+


The ground is already sopping wet around these parts from well above average summer rainfall and then further bouts of heavy rain so far this autumn. 


There will be big issues with flooding around the Midlands, Wales and N England if this turns out to be a wet winter.



Crewe, Cheshire
55 metres above sea level
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