Hmm, Page 42 date Oct. 28th 2019.
The years that end with 08,09 seem to favour our Normal Autumn Weather Sequences.
Will this Locked in Low Pressure pattern happen as forecasted over the UK, I think it is good to check the forecast models at the T72 to T192 range.
What matters is how long it rains- how heavy and how large an area get’s hmm. Breaks in these wet and windy spells are a feature we know a lot- dry spells with lighter winds. They are good.
Under the 72-96 hr time frame it is a good idea to see where we are position in the Jetsream and if it settles down we can see some interest that points us at dry and nice weather. If it gets windy and wet it will be or not and be changed as we get closer to those days- no point saying we are confident in cold and dry condictions returning to the UK.
Page 42. Nice model output today but it does not appear to show much in the way of cold and wintry weather.
Updated Comment for period 1988 to 2023.
The Above average Winters, Spring Summer and Autumn Season in the UK, affected by El Nino and La Nina, though Cold Spells with proper frosts happen to occur in Winter's they tend to last 3-12 days. Some 2-3 weeks of Mild SW flows are a regular thing. UK has mixed weather in all Seasons. It can be mild damp wet in winter, Cold frosty foggy Snowy Spells if very lucky, or it can be frosty and cold in March to May that is the worst part, and sometimes Cloudy overcast very chilly even in May and June or even in September to November, less frost and snow.
Springs, Summer's have trended to be well above average some hot heatwaves lasting 3-5 days with greater amounts of sunshine, and all 4 seasons feature lengthy long fetch mild SW flows sometimes with strong winds and heavy rain or settled dry sunny spells. or extremely heavy thundery showers or longer spells of Thundery rain in any Season in the UK. And 2 year long droughts.