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Offline Joe Bloggs  
#741 Posted : 19 October 2019 16:50:05(UTC)
Joe Bloggs

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Location: Manchester

Definitely the chance of something a bit chillier towards next weekend. 

Really interesting pressure pattern to our NW. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

Withington, South Manchester, 38m ASL

Online The Beast from the East  
#742 Posted : 19 October 2019 17:27:59(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Joe Bloggs Go to Quoted Post

Definitely the chance of something a bit chillier towards next weekend. 

Really interesting pressure pattern to our NW. 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

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Offline tierradelfuego  
#743 Posted : 19 October 2019 20:07:35(UTC)
tierradelfuego

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Location: Bucklebury, Berkshire 135m ASL

Interesting GEFS tonight down here for Reading with the OP 850hPa and 2m pretty much bang on the mean at ~5c above LTA throughout. The MSLP though is a totally different story with the OP 10-20mB below the mean, and opposing the Control till the end of the run. Pretty dry throughout.
Offline DEW  
#744 Posted : 20 October 2019 06:06:44(UTC)
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Forget the confident predictions of HP establishing in the coming week. Instead there's a mixed bag of transient Hp and/or weak ridges with occasional incursions of LP. Both ECM and GFS do roughly agree from the 27th with major depressions in the Atlantic andover N Russia, and HP then developing over the UK, strongly according to ECM, less so in GFS. That is however contradicted by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 showing a lot of pptn all across the UK at that time.

And GEFS? For England, dry this coming week, a bit more rain next, temps above average to start with then dropping back. Scotland and NI much more of a scramble with no clear pattern.

Low confidence in all outcomes IMO - keep watching

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Offline Russwirral  
#745 Posted : 20 October 2019 19:32:04(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

Friday looks very interesting... could see snow to quite low levels where the rain is heavy enough. A big pool of cold air to our northwest being tapped into
Offline briggsy6  
#746 Posted : 20 October 2019 20:24:45(UTC)
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A chance of my favourite Autumn weather on Tuesday,according to BBC Weather for the Week Ahead: a misty foggy morning. I love it when the first rays of weak morning sun highlight the spiders webs in the holly hedge next to the house. Sorry if I've said all this before.

Location: Uxbridge
Offline Russwirral  
#747 Posted : 20 October 2019 22:41:53(UTC)
Russwirral

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Friday looking more interesting for disruptive snowfall for some areas of northern england. The risk could extend more south as the week goes on

One to watch

Offline DEW  
#748 Posted : 21 October 2019 06:36:28(UTC)
DEW

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Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there.

 

It has been observed that less snow falls here than any other place of equal extent in the kingdom, occasioned by the shelter of the hills and the warmth of the sea breezes - Alexander Hay, Guide to Chichester, 1805
Online ballamar  
#749 Posted : 21 October 2019 06:53:14(UTC)
ballamar

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Location: Essex

ECM looks like it could be a chilly Halloween. GFS potential split vortex with maybe an early cold shot if the high can build in the right spot. Obviously nothing too cold but more interesting November coming up than mild 13/14 degree days with double figures at night
Offline Russwirral  
#750 Posted : 21 October 2019 11:24:11(UTC)
Russwirral

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Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc

 

Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days.  Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month  

 

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Offline tallyho_83  
#751 Posted : 21 October 2019 13:08:29(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

Originally Posted by: Russwirral Go to Quoted Post

Cold charts at this time of year should be taken with a pinch of salt... theyre the models coming to terms with cooler air etc etc

 

Something tells me - this time its different... this is not the first time ive seen such a setup in the FI over the past few days.  Its becoming a solid signal for something very wintry towards the end of the month  

 

 

Sat 27th Oct Last year it tried to sleet before the rain diminished and went back to light drizzle.

 

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Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline tallyho_83  
#752 Posted : 21 October 2019 13:10:58(UTC)
tallyho_83

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Location: Devon

Again a northerly at 240 says the ECM:

Quite a cold and snowy/wintry scene for many parts of Scandinavia!- However, we are just on the edge of it if this materialises!?

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Edited by user 21 October 2019 13:12:22(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Home Location - Exeter Haven Banks (Quayside) (10m asl)

Offline picturesareme  
#753 Posted : 21 October 2019 13:41:53(UTC)
picturesareme

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Location: costa solent

Originally Posted by: DEW Go to Quoted Post

Much as yesterday but with a suggestion that the breakdown of next week's HP will be from the west rather than the east. Winter getting established over NE europe by then http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

I think snow lying on Friday is optimistic except on the tops in Scotland. Great Dun Fell on top of the Pannines is forecast at 3C as the rain arrives, soon warming to 7C as the rain really sets in. So might see some wet snow/sleet for a short while there.

 

Some sleet for the Cheviots Friday night Saturday - Northumberland.

Offline Russwirral  
#754 Posted : 21 October 2019 16:34:39(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

Upgrade for snow for north midlands for friday

Im hoping it slips further south again. Im meant to be playing golf friday at 11am.

Online Brian Gaze  
#755 Posted : 21 October 2019 17:14:06(UTC)
Brian Gaze

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Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again.

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Offline Russwirral  
#756 Posted : 21 October 2019 22:08:45(UTC)
Russwirral

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Location: Wirral

Friday continues to model the feature further south

Chilterns could be in the firing line by tomorrows run

Offline beanoir  
#757 Posted : 21 October 2019 22:42:22(UTC)
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Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style.

Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... 

Langford, Bedfordshire
Offline haggishunter  
#758 Posted : 21 October 2019 22:59:32(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: beanoir Go to Quoted Post

Models are looking cracking for the end of the month, ECM aligned with the GFS now, winter looking like it might arrive in style.

Is winter no longer trendy, because it’s awfully quiet here... 

Think the clocks going back next week might stir people - though perhaps the weather might rouse attention first.

Frankly I’d rather some of the charts we are seeing now appear from late Nov on rather than now. But the very split with over 15 and times near or over 20°c spread in the Aberdeen ensembles was something I noticed a lot last winter.

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#759 Posted : 22 October 2019 05:49:36(UTC)
Heavy Weather 2013

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Location: Muswell Hill, North London

25 October looks like a key day. Anything can happen after that day, but the switch in the Ensembles overnight with more cool runs suggest something is afoot.
Mark

Beckton, SE London

Offline Tim A  
#760 Posted : 22 October 2019 06:21:54(UTC)
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Location: Leeds

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post

Interesting period of weather later this week. Even if the snow doesn't put in an appearance there is the potential for it to be very wet again.

Is GFS just acting bizarrely  though? ECM is nowhere near this type of scenerio. 

 

Tim

NW Leeds (1 mile east of LBA)

187m asl

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