GFS 18z so far (to Thurs) subtly different with orientation of the swooping low. More SW-NE rather than SE-NW, so lower uppers but possibly longer until breakdown.
Supported by BBC WftWA now saying breakdown on Friday - and still hedging bets about -just possibly - a thundery low in Biscay as scenario 2
EDIT - added Sunday am - the above confirmed by ensembles, ECM and GFS charts this morning, though ECM keeps it pleasantly warm in the south. Mildly surprising that there's no indication of more than scattered storms associated with the breakdown.
Further ahead, the agreement of the ensembles for the foreseeable for a spell of close-to-average temps and pptn looks too good to be true - there ought to be some outliers, one way or another! Particularly since both GFS and ECM main charts each bring in a depression across the UK, ECM sooner and GFS later. I don't regard the outputs as predictable at the moment.
Edited by user
21 July 2019 06:43:08
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Chichester 12m asl