Seeing “feeling warm in the sunshine” on the MetO extended forecast is just absolutely brilliant!

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😂😂



Friday 1 Mar - Friday 15 Mar
First half of March liable to see a slightly higher than normal likelihood of winds from the west then edging northerly later in the period. This likely leading to initially unsettled conditions with transitory settled periods and a milder Atlantic feel before increasing likelihood of colder and drier than average conditions toward mid-month.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Thu 15 Feb 2024

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lets give is a laugh from Feb 1st for the outlook from tomorrow

Friday 16 Feb - Friday 1 Mar
Although there is still some uncertainty by the start of this period is it more probable that conditions will start to become drier and more settled overall for much of the UK with winds from the north. This would increase the likelihood of less mild, or colder conditions developing more widely and increase chance of snow, especially in the north and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled into spring with variable temperatures

Saturday 17 February to – Sunday 25 February
Unsettled and becoming chillier

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 3 March
Unsettled weather with seasonable temperatures

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March
Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Further ahead
In the next update on Wednesday we will see if there any higher confidence on developments in early March. After the expected colder spell will there be any milder weather for a while?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

no sign of the red top ‘snow bombs’ bombarding my news feeds? 

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no sign of the red top ‘snow bombs’ bombarding my news feeds? 

Not a chance - and the Guardian gently mocking the red tops for their forecasts. GB News is IMO the worst offender.

But I really wish the news outlets wouldn't go OTT; it gives serious forecasting a bad name.

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no sign of the red top ‘snow bombs’ bombarding my news feeds? 

None of these around then 😀

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-new-maps-show-32149051 

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Those Countryfile weather graphics all over the place. Widespread predominantly white blobs on precipitation maps from wNW Thur / Fri yet temps 8dc… ‘some snow over the highest mountains’
😵‍💫

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Those Countryfile weather graphics all over the place. Widespread predominantly white blobs on precipitation maps from wNW Thur / Fri yet temps 8dc… ‘some snow over the highest mountains’
😵‍💫

Interestingly, the Countryfile forecast said that so far, this February has been the warmest ever on the CET, beating the previous record year which was in 1779.  AFAIR, the average so far is 8.6C. I would guess that the chillier weather that we should see later this week might well bring the February CET average below record levels.

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Just posting some highlights here from the BBC long-rangers over the past month or so...

Posted 17 January:
Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 20 January:
Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly turning colder again in February

Posted 24 January:
Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 27 January:
Monday 12 February to – Sunday 25 February
Possibly turning colder mid to late February

Posted 31 January:
Monday 12 February to – Monday 25 March
Possibly turning colder than average mid-February

Posted 3 February:
Monday 19 February to – Sunday 3 March
Colder than normal

Posted 14 February:
Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March
Chilly at times, especially in the north.

Posted 17 February:
Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March
Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Here we are on Feb 19th and the monthly CET was 4.6C above average, when I last looked.
If you keep calling for a cold spell you've got to be right eventually, right? My prediction is it will arrive in late July, just as the schools break up.

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Just posting some highlights here from the BBC long-rangers over the past month or so...

Posted 17 January:
Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 20 January:
Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly turning colder again in February

Posted 24 January:
Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 27 January:
Monday 12 February to – Sunday 25 February
Possibly turning colder mid to late February

Posted 31 January:
Monday 12 February to – Monday 25 March
Possibly turning colder than average mid-February

Posted 3 February:
Monday 19 February to – Sunday 3 March
Colder than normal

Posted 14 February:
Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March
Chilly at times, especially in the north.

Posted 17 February:
Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March
Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Here we are on Feb 19th and the monthly CET was 4.6C above average, when I last looked.
If you keep calling for a cold spell you've got to be right eventually, right? My prediction is it will arrive in late July, just as the schools break up.

They are very clever though because they don't put the year 😀

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Currently the CET is 8.6c . So it should have said possibly record breakingly mild. That's how wrong they have been. 

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They are very clever though because they don't put the year 😀

Or the country....

😀

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled and chilly at times

Wednesday 21 February to – Sunday 25 February
Unsettled and turning chillier

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 3 March
Remaining changeable. Possibly a bit milder later

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March
Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Further ahead
In the next update on Friday, we will see if models continue to suggest chances of a colder set-up, and we will take a look at the prospects for later March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-weather-collapse-of-ocean-conveyor-belt-temperature-drop-freezing?dicbo=v2-JsA2zeF 

What a misleading headline, was hoping I'd see a dusting before my times up 😔 

As the month draws to a close, with no cold weather, easterly or northerly in sight, another Shockingly poor ‘outlook’ much fabled from earlier in the month and late Jan from Met office becomes exposed. 
I’d love to believe their nod towards calm, warm and settled into mid March but one cannot hold much faith in their skills beyond a few days. This has been the case all winter IMO. You’d have to conclude not much has changed since the 80’s on an accuracy level. 

 

As the month draws to a close, with no cold weather, easterly or northerly in sight, another Shockingly poor ‘outlook’ much fabled from earlier in the month and late Jan from Met office becomes exposed. 
I’d love to believe their nod towards calm, warm and settled into mid March but one cannot hold much faith in their skills beyond a few days. This has been the case all winter IMO. You’d have to conclude not much has changed since the 80’s on an accuracy level. 

 

Totally concur, The language they use  covers every conceivable outcome that suggests it’s still “ best guess” as to the long term outlook.
If you produced a month ahead outlook by sticking to the monthly averages ,you wouldn’t be far off being correct !! 
it’s nearly as accurate as predicting the winner in the Grand  National horse race 😜
 

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March
Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Like a guessing game really "Possibly colder"

As per the Met Office said "Colder Mid Month in FEBRUARY" and this never materialised as did the Met Office talk of "Colder weather more likely" which was the forecast for early February when we were in January along with "milder weather less likely". Yet here we are on 22nd February with CET of 4.8c above normal and many places in south not recording one single air frost combined with no cold weather in the forecast either and the winter ends next week! Every day the south at least has seen double figure temperatures with most days in the low teens even by night as well. We will start March on a mild and wet note despite a 2nd or 3rd SSW.  

Wait until spring arrives and we will get frost and snow. My guess is Summer will be a washout and then when kids go back to school we will get dry and warm weather around 2nd and 3rd of February as per 2023. Models have been poor beit DWD, BCC, ECM, MET O, JMA, CFS, GFS etc etc all went for a cold and blocked February and that was an epic fail. 

Weather seems to know the "I know a song that get's on your nerves!" doesn't it

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Ironic to be seeing February's "Snow Moon" tomorrow.... 🌕 [if I can borrow the US name.]
https://www.rmg.co.uk/stories/topics/full-moon-calendar 

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As the month draws to a close, with no cold weather, easterly or northerly in sight, another Shockingly poor ‘outlook’ much fabled from earlier in the month and late Jan from Met office becomes exposed. 
I’d love to believe their nod towards calm, warm and settled into mid March but one cannot hold much faith in their skills beyond a few days. This has been the case all winter IMO. You’d have to conclude not much has changed since the 80’s on an accuracy level. 

 

I seem to recall their predictions for the January spell were very accurate. This has also been the case with the track and intesity of a number of named storms. Whilst they can't be right every time i think theres a bit of confirmation bias in this comment.

They've been consistently right when it matters IMO.

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