Or the country....

😀

Summary

Unsettled and chilly at times

Wednesday 21 February to – Sunday 25 February

Unsettled and turning chillier

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 3 March

Remaining changeable. Possibly a bit milder later

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March

Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Further ahead

In the next update on Friday, we will see if models continue to suggest chances of a colder set-up, and we will take a look at the prospects for later March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

What a misleading headline, was hoping I'd see a dusting before my times up 😔 

I’d love to believe their nod towards calm, warm and settled into mid March but one cannot hold much faith in their skills beyond a few days. This has been the case all winter IMO. You’d have to conclude not much has changed since the 80’s on an accuracy level. 

Totally concur, The language they use  covers every conceivable outcome that suggests it’s still “ best guess” as to the long term outlook.

If you produced a month ahead outlook by sticking to the monthly averages ,you wouldn’t be far off being correct !! 

it’s nearly as accurate as predicting the winner in the Grand  National horse race 😜

Like a guessing game really "Possibly colder"

As per the Met Office said "Colder Mid Month in FEBRUARY" and this never materialised as did the Met Office talk of "Colder weather more likely" which was the forecast for early February when we were in January along with "milder weather less likely". Yet here we are on 22nd February with CET of 4.8c above normal and many places in south not recording one single air frost combined with no cold weather in the forecast either and the winter ends next week! Every day the south at least has seen double figure temperatures with most days in the low teens even by night as well. We will start March on a mild and wet note despite a 2nd or 3rd SSW.  

Wait until spring arrives and we will get frost and snow. My guess is Summer will be a washout and then when kids go back to school we will get dry and warm weather around 2nd and 3rd of February as per 2023. Models have been poor beit DWD, BCC, ECM, MET O, JMA, CFS, GFS etc etc all went for a cold and blocked February and that was an epic fail. 

Weather seems to know the "I know a song that get's on your nerves!" doesn't it

https://www.rmg.co.uk/stories/topics/full-moon-calendar 

I seem to recall their predictions for the January spell were very accurate. This has also been the case with the track and intesity of a number of named storms. Whilst they can't be right every time i think theres a bit of confirmation bias in this comment.

They've been consistently right when it matters IMO.

Summary

Becoming milder. Less unsettled in early March

Saturday 24 February to – Sunday 3 March

Becoming milder but changeable

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 10 March

Unsettled with above-average temperatures

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 24 March

Possibly turning colder after mid-month

Further ahead

In the next update on Wednesday, we will see if we can confirm the milder one or two weeks that we are expecting, and if there are any more signs of a colder spell later in March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/68385942 

(you probably know the introductory elementary meteorology - it gets more interesting at about 50 seconds in)

Summary

Chilly early March then warmer until late month

Wednesday 27 March to – Sunday 3 March

Unsettled and turning chillier

Sunday 3 March to – Sunday 10 March

Becoming milder and drier

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 24 March

Possibly turning colder after mid-month

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Summary

Milder for a week or two. Maybe colder late March

Saturday 2 March to – Sunday 10 March

Becoming milder and drier

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 17 March

Wetter and windier in the south than the north

Monday 18 March to – Sunday 31 March

Rather uncertain but possibly turning colder

Further ahead

In the next update on Wednesday, we will see if the longer-range models remain consistent in suggesting a downturn in temperatures later in March, and whether they are looking any colder.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2024/february-2024-warm-and-wet-for-the-uk 

No surprise that the trend is warmer and wetter over the winter months. For much of my life February has tended to be a dry month, often with an easterly outbreak giving some chilly weather. In recent years it has changed drastically with far more Atlantic influence. Not great that sunshine levels are dropping even further than we already have to put up with.

I'm not really noticing the drier summers that they mention. Okay we've had a few dry and very hot spells but we seem to get frequent rain in most summers too. 

Summary

Some chilly spells but mostly milder than normal

Tuesday 5 March to – Sunday 10 March

Drier until the weekend

Monday 11 March to – Sunday 17 March

A couple of chillier days. A few showers

Monday 18 March to – Sunday 31 March

Possibly turning colder later in March

Further ahead

In the next update on Friday, we will see if models continue to show chillier possibilities in late March and we will take a peek into early April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Summary

Changeable and mild then chillier later

Saturday 9 March to – Sunday 17 March

Unsettled but becoming milder

Monday 18 March to – Sunday 24 March

Risk of turning colder

Monday 25 March to – Sunday 7 April

Could we see a colder spell?

Further ahead

Are there any more signals for a colder spell over Easter at the end of this month?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

However the differences are significant at the moment it looks much better here with trial turned on 😄

- so you can select the forecast if not the actual weather according to your preferences.

I'd suggest turn it on using alternative browser as it is only cookie based e.g chrome and firefox then you can compare.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/website/enhanced-forecast-weather-data-trial 

You can swap data sets on TWO hourly forecasts to use UKV or Arpege, e.g.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/hourly-weather-forecast.aspx?loc=berkhamsted 

Summary

Unsettled and chilly then milder for a week or so

Saturday 23 March to – Sunday 31 March

Changeable and chilly for a while

Monday 1 April to – Sunday 7 April

Mild. Drier in the north than the south

Monday 8 April to – Sunday 21 April

A chance of a chillier spell, but very uncertain

Further ahead

In the next update on Wednesday, we will see if the longer range models pick up on any colder risks before mid-April.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

As a result, I've been doing some research to find out whether or not we could be on course for our wettest April on record here in Edinburgh.

According to this  article, the actual record is 147.0 mm although there is no information there about when that record was set or which station it was set at.

At the moment, we're well short of that but since we're not even halfway through the month, that record would be smashed if the rainfall totals continue to pile up during the rest of this month by as much as they have been doing up until now.

The article suggests that even with just a few more really wet days, that record could well end up being challenged.

”Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Largely settled for the outlook with some sunny spells. Otherwise mostly cloudy with occasional showers, particularly towards the end of the week.”

so which is it?

Temperatures will plummet by more than 15C in the space of three days, and so the balmy weekend will appear a distant memory by midweek when northerly winds will hit.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-exact-date-artctic-32647723