A new thread to take us through the remainder of winter and beyond..........

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Met Office app has us down for 10 hours of sleet/snow for tomorrow………..here’s hoping 

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Yet no amber warning ?? Maybe it'll be done too late in the day for many to notice. 

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The combined total for some parts of N Scotland over the different warning periods suggest some places could get a huge amount of snow.

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The poor weather guy on BBC Scotland at lunchtime was trying to explain what's gone wrong again. He did a good job.

Two weather systems have emerged, he showed a tangle of small fronts over the west of Scotland and they've interacted with each other, pulling a wedge of milder air across southern Scotland.

Still cold and snowy to the north and relatively cold, although snow turning to rain for Northern England

As I predicted this morning, everything is fizzling over Scotland and pulling away east. It's now raining here at 3.5 C 🤢

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Turning mild for a while. Colder by mid-February

Wednesday 17 January to – Sunday 21 January
Turning milder at the weekend

Monday 22 January to – Sunday 28 January
Unsettled but mild

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Further ahead

The next forecast update will take us further into February, and we will also see if models give more of a clue about the potential for colder weather to return during February.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

It was interesting to see the mention of thundersnow on both the UK and Scottish BBC TV forecasts this evening.

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It was interesting to see the mention of thundersnow on both the UK and Scottish BBC TV forecasts this evening.

At the moment (19.27 hrs, 17 Jan) there is very isolated, sporadic thunder over N Sea not far from N and E Scotland, but would not be surprised if something substantial could develop.

Incidentally, there was substantial thunder activity over eastern N Sea in the last 24 hrs, sweeping across Denmark. It looked like an active, squally cold front on the satellite image.

There was isolated thunder activity over the Lake District and SW Scotland yesterday.

I've seen some garbage from the rags, but today's tops the lot.

"The ‘freeze of the century’ is here to stay in the UK"

https://metro.co.uk/2024/01/15/snow-london-weather-uk-met-office-forecast-latest-20106647/?ito=socialmetrouktwitter 

I've seen some garbage from the rags, but today's tops the lot.

"The ‘freeze of the century’ is here to stay in the UK"

https://metro.co.uk/2024/01/15/snow-london-weather-uk-met-office-forecast-latest-20106647/?ito=socialmetrouktwitter 

"Double fisted" ? 

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and unsettled then colder in February

Saturday 20 January to – Sunday 28 January
Much milder but unsettled

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 4 February
Drier in many areas but a bit chillier

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly turning colder again in February

Further ahead
Is there any more certainty regarding the change to a possible colder period as we head through February?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Just as Storm Isha departs, tomorrow's low pressure system has now been officially named as Storm Jocelyn by Met Eireann, and this now means that there has now already been more storms during this current season which have been named under our current system than in any other such season since that system was introduced back in 2015 (never before, have we ever reached the letter 'J' on those lists and so from that respect, it's a pity that this storm wasn't instead named as Storn John otherwise I would have had a storm named after me here).
 

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and unsettled. Possibly colder mid-February

Wednesday 24 January to – Sunday 28 January
Unsettled but mild

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 4 February
Drier, with temperatures mostly above average

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Further ahead
In the next forecast update, we will see if the models have any stronger indication of a colder turn by mid-February, and we will take a look at the prospects for the end of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Met Office later Feb  ‘Drier not too cold’ 🙄

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Met Office later Feb  ‘Drier not too cold’ 🙄

Their extended forecast currently includes:

"Later in the month there is an increasing likelihood of winds from the north or east, which will increase the chance of some colder spells and perhaps snow."

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and unsettled. Possibly colder later February

Saturday 27 January to – Sunday 4 February
Changeable but mild until later

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 11 February
Mostly milder than average and unsettled

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 25 February
Possibly turning colder mid to late February

Further ahead
We will again try to pick apart the indicators for mid to late February in the next update and see if colder weather is still looking possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and unsettled, then colder mid-February

Wednesday 31 January to – Sunday 4 February
Changeable but generally mild

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 11 February
Milder than average for most but staying unsettled

Monday 12 February to – Monday 25 March
Possibly turning colder than average mid-February

Further ahead
With models tending to hint more at the possibility of colder weather for mid-to-late February, let's see the atmospheric drivers are still looking favourable for such conditions to develop.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Where does BBC get their forecast data from? Given the majority get their forecasts from their app/website it often looks terrible for more than 4 days out

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
A change to colder conditions is coming

Saturday 3 February to – Sunday 11 February
Turning chillier by the end of the coming week

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 18 February
Mostly likely near or colder than average

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 3 March
Colder than normal

Further ahead
We will see in the next update on Wednesday if the models and other indicators continue to depict the colder turn of events from mid-February into the second half of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

We're heading for our second cold snap of the season with snow on the way

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/sean-batty-were-heading-for-our-second-cold-snap-of-the-season-with-snow-and-very-low-temperatures-on-the-way