We're heading for our second cold snap of the season with snow on the way

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/sean-batty-were-heading-for-our-second-cold-snap-of-the-season-with-snow-and-very-low-temperatures-on-the-way 

A good article there by Sean and highlights the two key messages getting colder but very difficult to forecast the specifics due to the nature of the synoptics.

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Punxsutawney Phil has emerged from his burrow in Gobbler's Knob to announce he had not seen his shadow.

America can therefore expect an early spring.

BBC Weather for the week ahead

Mild start
Wet and windy at times
Gradually turning colder
Some snow possible

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001w2t7 

Had to laugh at a Mirror headline that showed up on my phone yesterday. 

“Exact time London will be pelted with 63 hours of rain before ‘wall of snow’”

🫤

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Becoming colder with wintry precipitation at times

Wednesday 7 February to – Sunday 11 February
Unsettled with some snow in the north.

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 18 February
A bit colder than average. Some wintry showers.

Monday 19 February to – Saturday 2 March
Colder than normal.

Further ahead
On Friday, the next update will take a look further into March and might give us some idea if we will see a change to milder and unsettled conditions as we move further into March. And that is assuming that the new models continue with the colder theme until then.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Is the forecast going to plan?
Matt Taylor
BBC Weather
Today was always going to be a fine balance between rain and potentially very heavy snowfall in some areas.
I mentioned earlier that the intensity of the precipitation could be crucial. We are now seeing the intensity pick up in north Wales and the north-west Midlands. This is turning more of what was falling as rain to snow.
As that higher intensity area moves north, snowfall will become heavier on the hills of north Wales, the Peak District and Pennines over the coming hours, before turning back to rain. It could also mean some lower lying areas will see a bit more snow, mixed in with the rain, at times.
Even ahead of that, we are now seeing the forecast snow start to arrive more widely on the north Pennines and Northern Ireland.
The Met Office yellow warning for snow in southern Scotland now has an earlier start time of midday, indicating that things are progressing a little quicker than expected earlier.

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Is the forecast going to plan?
Matt Taylor
BBC Weather
Today was always going to be a fine balance between rain and potentially very heavy snowfall in some areas.
I mentioned earlier that the intensity of the precipitation could be crucial. We are now seeing the intensity pick up in north Wales and the north-west Midlands. This is turning more of what was falling as rain to snow.
As that higher intensity area moves north, snowfall will become heavier on the hills of north Wales, the Peak District and Pennines over the coming hours, before turning back to rain. It could also mean some lower lying areas will see a bit more snow, mixed in with the rain, at times.
Even ahead of that, we are now seeing the forecast snow start to arrive more widely on the north Pennines and Northern Ireland.
The Met Office yellow warning for snow in southern Scotland now has an earlier start time of midday, indicating that things are progressing a little quicker than expected earlier.

Nah, waste of time as it willl turn milder so no point having snow in the first place.  Roll on Spring please.

Once again extremly overeacting news about school shut?  Erm why they are closing the school for less cold temps and snow will not stay for few minutes long?  In the 1980's school only closed when snow is very deep, sub zero temps and -10C at nights.   In my views it completely idiot and way over the tops.  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68227264 

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled into spring with variable temperatures

Saturday 10 February to – Sunday 18 February
Very variable temperatures. Wet at times

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 25 February
Colder and drier in the north than in the south

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March
Unsettled. Chilly at times, mainly in the north

Further ahead
The next update on Wednesday might give us a better idea of how far south any colder air might come.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

You have to laugh at yesterdays update, its doesn't even follow on from the medium term

Monday 26 Feb - Monday 11 Mar
During late February and early March, there is a higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds dominating, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 11 Feb 2024

 

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You have to laugh at yesterdays update, its doesn't even follow on from the medium term

Monday 26 Feb - Monday 11 Mar
During late February and early March, there is a higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds dominating, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 11 Feb 2024

 

Ahem, this is not the Media thread.  Why do you keep doing this?

 

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You have to laugh at yesterdays update, its doesn't even follow on from the medium term

Monday 26 Feb - Monday 11 Mar
During late February and early March, there is a higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds dominating, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.
Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 11 Feb 2024

 

Actually I find it interesting to see how the interface between the two different methodologies is handled.  The longer range outlook must be based on ensemble data and the broader background signals, whereas the 5-day forecast is a blend of operational and ensemble ooutput.   How and over what timescales do they blend the two, or transition from one to the other?

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The met office have used the word 'warm' in today's mid term update

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

Is something awry here? My PC is saying this is the media thread and GTW is telling someone it isn't and posting model output stuff?
Anyway assuming the header is correct I found today's BBC forecast poor. The emphasis was on the warm front moving through bringing a band of rain and drawing in much milder air. Max here was just over 9C which is in fact the second coldest of February. I know cold is relative in this day and age but it felt it today in the constant rain and high windchill and definitely not mild.

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The met office have used the word 'warm' in today's mid term update

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

Met not buying the GFS colder spell then. 

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Ahem, this is not the Media thread.  Why do you keep doing this?

 

The title of this thread says - Media Thread 15th January 2024 >>>>>>>onwards - All media related posts

The title of this thread says - Media Thread 15th January 2024 >>>>>>>onwards - All media related posts

The post in question has been moved here after the person posted yet another Met Office forecast in the model output despite being told this was the thread where it belongs.

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The title of this thread says - Media Thread 15th January 2024 >>>>>>>onwards - All media related posts

As Michael says, Dub Version makes a habit of posting the Met Office forecasts in the MOD threads. TBH I’m surprised you were unaware.  🙂

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As Michael says, Dub Version makes a habit of posting the Met Office forecasts in the MOD threads. TBH I’m surprised you were unaware.  🙂

And when the opening post, i.e. the one from Dub, gets moved (in this case by me) any attached comments, i.e. those from Caz and GtW, also stay attached and move across as well.

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Current BBC forecasts for here aren't exactly wrong but are giving completely the wrong impression to lay people about what it is going to be like. Yesterday the emphasised the mildness when it was a windy, wet, 9C and particularly unpleasant. Today was all pictures of daffodils and the warm plume giving high temperatures in the south spreading from Spain and the tropics although Tomaz did mention it could rain anywhere.. So I am in no doubt that the plebs will be disappointed to find another grey, wet, miserable day despite the 12C temperatures. Can't be what they were expecting.

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled and mild then chillier later.

Wednesday 14 February to – Sunday 18 February
Changeable and mostly mild.

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 25 February
Wet periods. Turning chillier later in the week.

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March
Chilly at times, especially in the north.

Further ahead
Friday's update will look at whether there is any higher confidence in late February and early March patterns, and will allow us a look towards mid-March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook