The Weather Outlook

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Jiries
08 February 2024 16:53:10

Is the forecast going to plan?

Matt Taylor

BBC Weather

Today was always going to be a fine balance between rain and potentially very heavy snowfall in some areas.

I mentioned earlier that the intensity of the precipitation could be crucial. We are now seeing the intensity pick up in north Wales and the north-west Midlands. This is turning more of what was falling as rain to snow.

As that higher intensity area moves north, snowfall will become heavier on the hills of north Wales, the Peak District and Pennines over the coming hours, before turning back to rain. It could also mean some lower lying areas will see a bit more snow, mixed in with the rain, at times.

Even ahead of that, we are now seeing the forecast snow start to arrive more widely on the north Pennines and Northern Ireland.

The Met Office yellow warning for snow in southern Scotland now has an earlier start time of midday, indicating that things are progressing a little quicker than expected earlier.

Originally Posted by: llamedos 

Nah, waste of time as it willl turn milder so no point having snow in the first place.  Roll on Spring please.

Once again extremly overeacting news about school shut?  Erm why they are closing the school for less cold temps and snow will not stay for few minutes long?  In the 1980's school only closed when snow is very deep, sub zero temps and -10C at nights.   In my views it completely idiot and way over the tops.  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68227264 

Gavin D
10 February 2024 11:12:21
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled into spring with variable temperatures

Saturday 10 February to – Sunday 18 February

Very variable temperatures. Wet at times

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 25 February

Colder and drier in the north than in the south

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March

Unsettled. Chilly at times, mainly in the north

Further ahead

The next update on Wednesday might give us a better idea of how far south any colder air might come.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

12 February 2024 13:12:41
You have to laugh at yesterdays update, its doesn't even follow on from the medium term

Monday 26 Feb - Monday 11 Mar

During late February and early March, there is a higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds dominating, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 11 Feb 2024

 


Berkshire
Gandalf The White
12 February 2024 13:20:07

You have to laugh at yesterdays update, its doesn't even follow on from the medium term

Monday 26 Feb - Monday 11 Mar

During late February and early March, there is a higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds dominating, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 11 Feb 2024

 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Ahem, this is not the Media thread.  Why do you keep doing this?

 


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gandalf The White
12 February 2024 13:58:13

You have to laugh at yesterdays update, its doesn't even follow on from the medium term

Monday 26 Feb - Monday 11 Mar

During late February and early March, there is a higher than normal likelihood of northerly or easterly winds dominating, which would increase the chance of colder and drier than average conditions. Spells of milder and wetter weather are still likely to occur at times, especially in the south and southwest, with the potential for snow on the boundary between milder and colder air.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Sun 11 Feb 2024

 

Originally Posted by: The Dub Version 

Actually I find it interesting to see how the interface between the two different methodologies is handled.  The longer range outlook must be based on ensemble data and the broader background signals, whereas the 5-day forecast is a blend of operational and ensemble ooutput.   How and over what timescales do they blend the two, or transition from one to the other?


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Gavin D
13 February 2024 16:41:31
The met office have used the word 'warm' in today's mid term update

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

fairweather
13 February 2024 16:46:17
Is something awry here? My PC is saying this is the media thread and GTW is telling someone it isn't and posting model output stuff?

Anyway assuming the header is correct I found today's BBC forecast poor. The emphasis was on the warm front moving through bringing a band of rain and drawing in much milder air. Max here was just over 9C which is in fact the second coldest of February. I know cold is relative in this day and age but it felt it today in the constant rain and high windchill and definitely not mild.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
13 February 2024 16:49:06

The met office have used the word 'warm' in today's mid term update

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Met not buying the GFS colder spell then. 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
13 February 2024 16:50:01

Ahem, this is not the Media thread.  Why do you keep doing this?

 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

The title of this thread says - Media Thread 15th January 2024 >>>>>>>onwards - All media related posts

doctormog
13 February 2024 17:28:39

The title of this thread says - Media Thread 15th January 2024 >>>>>>>onwards - All media related posts

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

The post in question has been moved here after the person posted yet another Met Office forecast in the model output despite being told this was the thread where it belongs.


Gandalf The White
13 February 2024 17:49:25

The title of this thread says - Media Thread 15th January 2024 >>>>>>>onwards - All media related posts

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

As Michael says, Dub Version makes a habit of posting the Met Office forecasts in the MOD threads. TBH I’m surprised you were unaware.  🙂


Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
13 February 2024 18:56:02

As Michael says, Dub Version makes a habit of posting the Met Office forecasts in the MOD threads. TBH I’m surprised you were unaware.  🙂

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

And when the opening post, i.e. the one from Dub, gets moved (in this case by me) any attached comments, i.e. those from Caz and GtW, also stay attached and move across as well.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

fairweather
14 February 2024 11:05:13
Current BBC forecasts for here aren't exactly wrong but are giving completely the wrong impression to lay people about what it is going to be like. Yesterday the emphasised the mildness when it was a windy, wet, 9C and particularly unpleasant. Today was all pictures of daffodils and the warm plume giving high temperatures in the south spreading from Spain and the tropics although Tomaz did mention it could rain anywhere.. So I am in no doubt that the plebs will be disappointed to find another grey, wet, miserable day despite the 12C temperatures. Can't be what they were expecting.
S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gavin D
14 February 2024 15:52:03
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled and mild then chillier later.

Wednesday 14 February to – Sunday 18 February

Changeable and mostly mild.

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 25 February

Wet periods. Turning chillier later in the week.

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March

Chilly at times, especially in the north.

Further ahead

Friday's update will look at whether there is any higher confidence in late February and early March patterns, and will allow us a look towards mid-March.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Matty H
14 February 2024 23:30:36
Seeing “feeling warm in the sunshine” on the MetO extended forecast is just absolutely brilliant!
Yate, Nr Bristol

TBFTEIARBSC

15 February 2024 15:49:07
😂😂

Friday 1 Mar - Friday 15 Mar

First half of March liable to see a slightly higher than normal likelihood of winds from the west then edging northerly later in the period. This likely leading to initially unsettled conditions with transitory settled periods and a milder Atlantic feel before increasing likelihood of colder and drier than average conditions toward mid-month.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC) on Thu 15 Feb 2024


Berkshire
15 February 2024 15:52:47
lets give is a laugh from Feb 1st for the outlook from tomorrow

Friday 16 Feb - Friday 1 Mar

Although there is still some uncertainty by the start of this period is it more probable that conditions will start to become drier and more settled overall for much of the UK with winds from the north. This would increase the likelihood of less mild, or colder conditions developing more widely and increase chance of snow, especially in the north and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 


Berkshire
Gavin D
17 February 2024 10:55:03
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Unsettled into spring with variable temperatures

Saturday 17 February to – Sunday 25 February

Unsettled and becoming chillier

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 3 March

Unsettled weather with seasonable temperatures

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March

Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Further ahead

In the next update on Wednesday we will see if there any higher confidence on developments in early March. After the expected colder spell will there be any milder weather for a while?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

dagspot
17 February 2024 11:22:41
no sign of the red top ‘snow bombs’ bombarding my news feeds? 
Neilston 600ft ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 February 2024 22:35:45

no sign of the red top ‘snow bombs’ bombarding my news feeds? 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Not a chance - and the Guardian gently mocking the red tops for their forecasts. GB News is IMO the worst offender.

But I really wish the news outlets wouldn't go OTT; it gives serious forecasting a bad name.


War is God's way of teaching Americans geography - Ambrose Bierce

Chichester 12m asl

lanky
18 February 2024 10:48:32

no sign of the red top ‘snow bombs’ bombarding my news feeds? 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 

None of these around then 😀

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-weather-new-maps-show-32149051 


Martin

Richmond, Surrey

dagspot
18 February 2024 18:52:16
Those Countryfile weather graphics all over the place. Widespread predominantly white blobs on precipitation maps from wNW Thur / Fri yet temps 8dc… ‘some snow over the highest mountains’

😵‍💫


Neilston 600ft ASL
Lionel Hutz
19 February 2024 09:50:13

Those Countryfile weather graphics all over the place. Widespread predominantly white blobs on precipitation maps from wNW Thur / Fri yet temps 8dc… ‘some snow over the highest mountains’

😵‍💫

Originally Posted by: dagspot 

Interestingly, the Countryfile forecast said that so far, this February has been the warmest ever on the CET, beating the previous record year which was in 1779.  AFAIR, the average so far is 8.6C. I would guess that the chillier weather that we should see later this week might well bring the February CET average below record levels.


Lionel Hutz

Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland

68m ASL



Rob K
19 February 2024 12:39:56
Just posting some highlights here from the BBC long-rangers over the past month or so...

Posted 17 January:

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February

Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 20 January:

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February

Possibly turning colder again in February

Posted 24 January:

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February

Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 27 January:

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 25 February

Possibly turning colder mid to late February

Posted 31 January:

Monday 12 February to – Monday 25 March

Possibly turning colder than average mid-February

Posted 3 February:

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 3 March

Colder than normal

Posted 14 February:

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March

Chilly at times, especially in the north.

Posted 17 February:

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March

Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Here we are on Feb 19th and the monthly CET was 4.6C above average, when I last looked.

If you keep calling for a cold spell you've got to be right eventually, right? My prediction is it will arrive in late July, just as the schools break up.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

warrenb
19 February 2024 13:08:35

Just posting some highlights here from the BBC long-rangers over the past month or so...

Posted 17 January:

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February

Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 20 January:

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February

Possibly turning colder again in February

Posted 24 January:

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February

Possibly colder by mid-February

Posted 27 January:

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 25 February

Possibly turning colder mid to late February

Posted 31 January:

Monday 12 February to – Monday 25 March

Possibly turning colder than average mid-February

Posted 3 February:

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 3 March

Colder than normal

Posted 14 February:

Monday 26 February to – Sunday 10 March

Chilly at times, especially in the north.

Posted 17 February:

Monday 4 March to – Sunday 17 March

Milder for a time. Possibly colder mid-month

Here we are on Feb 19th and the monthly CET was 4.6C above average, when I last looked.

If you keep calling for a cold spell you've got to be right eventually, right? My prediction is it will arrive in late July, just as the schools break up.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

They are very clever though because they don't put the year 😀


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