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llamedos
  • llamedos
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
15 January 2024 07:31:29
A new thread to take us through the remainder of winter and beyond..........
"Life with the Lions"

TWO Moderator
fullybhoy
15 January 2024 10:17:52
Met Office app has us down for 10 hours of sleet/snow for tomorrow………..here’s hoping 
Aldo
Glasgow 165m/asl
 
glenogle
15 January 2024 14:24:34
Yet no amber warning ?? Maybe it'll be done too late in the day for many to notice. 
UserPostedImage LLTNP 105m asl 
doctormog
15 January 2024 14:29:23
The combined total for some parts of N Scotland over the different warning periods suggest some places could get a huge amount of snow.
Crepuscular Ray
16 January 2024 14:56:47
The poor weather guy on BBC Scotland at lunchtime was trying to explain what's gone wrong again. He did a good job.

Two weather systems have emerged, he showed a tangle of small fronts over the west of Scotland and they've interacted with each other, pulling a wedge of milder air across southern Scotland.

Still cold and snowy to the north and relatively cold, although snow turning to rain for Northern England

As I predicted this morning, everything is fizzling over Scotland and pulling away east. It's now raining here at 3.5 C 🤢
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
Gavin D
17 January 2024 11:52:48
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Turning mild for a while. Colder by mid-February

Wednesday 17 January to – Sunday 21 January
Turning milder at the weekend

Monday 22 January to – Sunday 28 January
Unsettled but mild

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 11 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Further ahead

The next forecast update will take us further into February, and we will also see if models give more of a clue about the potential for colder weather to return during February.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
doctormog
17 January 2024 19:00:59
It was interesting to see the mention of thundersnow on both the UK and Scottish BBC TV forecasts this evening.
ozone_aurora
17 January 2024 19:30:36

It was interesting to see the mention of thundersnow on both the UK and Scottish BBC TV forecasts this evening.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


At the moment (19.27 hrs, 17 Jan) there is very isolated, sporadic thunder over N Sea not far from N and E Scotland, but would not be surprised if something substantial could develop.

Incidentally, there was substantial thunder activity over eastern N Sea in the last 24 hrs, sweeping across Denmark. It looked like an active, squally cold front on the satellite image.

There was isolated thunder activity over the Lake District and SW Scotland yesterday.
Gavin D
18 January 2024 10:16:07
I've seen some garbage from the rags, but today's tops the lot.

"The ‘freeze of the century’ is here to stay in the UK"

https://metro.co.uk/2024/01/15/snow-london-weather-uk-met-office-forecast-latest-20106647/?ito=socialmetrouktwitter 
Ally Pally Snowman
18 January 2024 10:22:36

I've seen some garbage from the rags, but today's tops the lot.

"The ‘freeze of the century’ is here to stay in the UK"

https://metro.co.uk/2024/01/15/snow-london-weather-uk-met-office-forecast-latest-20106647/?ito=socialmetrouktwitter 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



"Double fisted" ? 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gavin D
20 January 2024 10:51:02
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and unsettled then colder in February

Saturday 20 January to – Sunday 28 January
Much milder but unsettled

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 4 February
Drier in many areas but a bit chillier

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly turning colder again in February

Further ahead
Is there any more certainty regarding the change to a possible colder period as we head through February?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
johncs2016
22 January 2024 12:19:15
Just as Storm Isha departs, tomorrow's low pressure system has now been officially named as Storm Jocelyn by Met Eireann, and this now means that there has now already been more storms during this current season which have been named under our current system than in any other such season since that system was introduced back in 2015 (never before, have we ever reached the letter 'J' on those lists and so from that respect, it's a pity that this storm wasn't instead named as Storn John otherwise I would have had a storm named after me here).
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Gavin D
24 January 2024 11:13:55
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and unsettled. Possibly colder mid-February

Wednesday 24 January to – Sunday 28 January
Unsettled but mild

Monday 29 January to – Sunday 4 February
Drier, with temperatures mostly above average

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 18 February
Possibly colder by mid-February

Further ahead
In the next forecast update, we will see if the models have any stronger indication of a colder turn by mid-February, and we will take a look at the prospects for the end of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
dagspot
26 January 2024 13:32:18
Met Office later Feb  ‘Drier not too cold’ 🙄
Neilston 600ft ASL
Brian Gaze
26 January 2024 13:45:43

Met Office later Feb  ‘Drier not too cold’ 🙄

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



Their extended forecast currently includes:

"Later in the month there is an increasing likelihood of winds from the north or east, which will increase the chance of some colder spells and perhaps snow."
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Gavin D
27 January 2024 11:29:06
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and unsettled. Possibly colder later February

Saturday 27 January to – Sunday 4 February
Changeable but mild until later

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 11 February
Mostly milder than average and unsettled

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 25 February
Possibly turning colder mid to late February

Further ahead
We will again try to pick apart the indicators for mid to late February in the next update and see if colder weather is still looking possible.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
31 January 2024 12:36:17
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and unsettled, then colder mid-February

Wednesday 31 January to – Sunday 4 February
Changeable but generally mild

Monday 5 February to – Sunday 11 February
Milder than average for most but staying unsettled

Monday 12 February to – Monday 25 March
Possibly turning colder than average mid-February

Further ahead
With models tending to hint more at the possibility of colder weather for mid-to-late February, let's see the atmospheric drivers are still looking favourable for such conditions to develop.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
ballamar
02 February 2024 08:13:29
Where does BBC get their forecast data from? Given the majority get their forecasts from their app/website it often looks terrible for more than 4 days out
Gavin D
03 February 2024 11:18:07
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
A change to colder conditions is coming

Saturday 3 February to – Sunday 11 February
Turning chillier by the end of the coming week

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 18 February
Mostly likely near or colder than average

Monday 19 February to – Sunday 3 March
Colder than normal

Further ahead
We will see in the next update on Wednesday if the models and other indicators continue to depict the colder turn of events from mid-February into the second half of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
03 February 2024 12:15:39
doctormog
03 February 2024 13:04:59

We're heading for our second cold snap of the season with snow on the way

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/sean-batty-were-heading-for-our-second-cold-snap-of-the-season-with-snow-and-very-low-temperatures-on-the-way 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



A good article there by Sean and highlights the two key messages getting colder but very difficult to forecast the specifics due to the nature of the synoptics.
Gavin D
03 February 2024 14:42:52
Punxsutawney Phil has emerged from his burrow in Gobbler's Knob to announce he had not seen his shadow.

America can therefore expect an early spring.
Gavin D
04 February 2024 13:16:22
BBC Weather for the week ahead

Mild start
Wet and windy at times
Gradually turning colder
Some snow possible

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001w2t7 
Rob K
05 February 2024 08:43:16
Had to laugh at a Mirror headline that showed up on my phone yesterday. 

“Exact time London will be pelted with 63 hours of rain before ‘wall of snow’”

🫤
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gavin D
07 February 2024 11:48:31
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Becoming colder with wintry precipitation at times

Wednesday 7 February to – Sunday 11 February
Unsettled with some snow in the north.

Monday 12 February to – Sunday 18 February
A bit colder than average. Some wintry showers.

Monday 19 February to – Saturday 2 March
Colder than normal.

Further ahead
On Friday, the next update will take a look further into March and might give us some idea if we will see a change to milder and unsettled conditions as we move further into March. And that is assuming that the new models continue with the colder theme until then.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

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