from Snowfest to S**tfest.

😎

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It's definitely up there with the very best for here as well. The only thing its lacked is a snow on snow event.

 

Agreed. I’m just down the road from you. Have you been to Epping Forest yet? Try to get there on Saturday if you can. Absolutely extraordinary amounts of snowfall in the higher parts (E.g. High Beach) - utterly breathtaking scenes. 

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I can often tell what the models look like just by who is commenting on them. No need to look 😂

Agreed. Terms like raging zonality and pattern locked in for several weeks are designed to get peoples backs up. Same in the summer. Only appearing when things look poor. I think it’s just shows a lack of understanding of model watching. 

Back to the ensembles, a mixed picture with many options still on the table. Northerly shot locked on pretty much, let’s see where we are come Friday, hopefully we will have some clearer picture then.

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Agreed. Terms like raging zonality and pattern locked in for several weeks are designed to get peoples backs up. Same in the summer. Only appearing when things look poor. I think it’s just shows a lack of understanding of model watching.  Back to the ensembles, a mixed picture with many options still on the table. Northerly shot locked on pretty much, let’s see where we are come Friday, hopefully we will have some clearer picture then.

 ​​​​​​​I have actually been here throughout. I don't disappear based on what the charts are showing.​​​​​​​I occasionally disappear when I'm busy at work, but I comment on every type of chart I see.​​​​​​​I haven't said it's locked in, as such, but from past experience, I think we all know that once a Zonal train takes hold, it's very difficult to shift.​​​​​​​Maybe this time will be different, but only time will tell.    

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Agreed. I’m just down the road from you. Have you been to Epping Forest yet? Try to get there on Saturday if you can. Absolutely extraordinary amounts of snowfall in the higher parts (E.g. High Beach) - utterly breathtaking scenes. 

I haven't yet but will definitely try. When I've driven around the area the snow is significant all the way from East London and North London all the way upto Cambridge.  An M11 Special! 😄

 

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GFS 6Z is another horror show for most (away from the North of Scotland), with raging zonality ramping up.Some stormy weather ahead and definitely not cold for the vast majority.This, if it verifies, really is a long way back to cold, and would probably spell trouble of a wet and windy variety for several weeks at least.   

Several weeks? So late January? Ok…

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I haven't yet but will definitely try. When I've driven around the area the snow is significant all the way from East London and North London all the way upto Cambridge.  An M11 Special! 😄

 

There was actually too much snow by the King’s Oak pub when we went tobogganing Monday morning, had to spend an hour packing down a run. Probably superb now!

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Several weeks? So late January? Ok…

Well, no, several weeks doesn't mean seven weeks, it means 3 weeks or more....​​​​​​​So possibly early in the New Year, but it'll be a case of wait and see.  

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P9 for the win. I'm backing the outsider.

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GFS 6Z is another horror show for most (away from the North of Scotland), with raging zonality ramping up.Some stormy weather ahead and definitely not cold for the vast majority.This, if it verifies, really is a long way back to cold, and would probably spell trouble of a wet and windy variety for several weeks at least.   

Some snow opportunities on the 6Z for next week and that isn't just for Northern Scotland.  If the lows tracked a bit further south then even more chance. 

Next week (starting Sunday) could be much snowier here than this week.  Would need some luck and also to enjoy the snow immediately as it would be prone to thawing.   
 

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Aperge has some interest for those in the NW, S Wales and the West Midlands Friday night into Saturday. 

Something to watch. 

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GFS 6Z is another horror show for most (away from the North of Scotland), with raging zonality ramping up.Some stormy weather ahead and definitely not cold for the vast majority.This, if it verifies, really is a long way back to cold, and would probably spell trouble of a wet and windy variety for several weeks at least.   

yes it is very disappointing after the excitement of a couple of days ago but the cold spell lasting was only 50/50 at best. Looks like we will be looking at early Jan now at least for the next possible cold spell. Though I'm not yet seeing a clear signal for zonality, it would not surprise me if that pattern was to become established for the rest of the entire Winter.

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See what I mean 😉

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The models certainly don't look particularly zonal to me. The GEFS mean by T384 is fairly meridional albeit with the UK sitting on the wrong side of the jet.

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yes it is very disappointing after the excitement of a couple of days ago but the cold spell lasting was only 50/50 at best. Looks like we will be looking at early Jan now at least for the next possible cold spell. Though I'm not yet seeing a clear signal for zonality, it would not surprise me if that pattern was to become established for the rest of the entire Winter.

Rest of the entire winter? That's a rather big sweeping statement IMO when at the moment, we are only just about half-way through the first month.

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https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=307&y=104 

Looking more likely now that once, for some a very good cold spell comes to a close this weekend. That it will be standard winter fair on offer. 
I hope we have another shot at a decent cold spell again this winter. 

GFS 6z ens (London) have moved more towards a brief cooler blip post breakdown before milder air returns. The scatter is a touch hard to resolve so may not be wall to wall average/mild but will need to get a clearer signal. 

ECM ens wise there's more scatter and looking at the individual members suggests it's a volatile pattern - mild/chilly/mild again with enough precip spikes to suggest it's in an unsettled flow.  There are still a few members that have more prolonged chilly/cold air in place but these are in the minority.

As it stands I'd say unsettled is strongly favoured, with the greatest chance of mild air being in the south although brief chilly periods are possible even here. Pretty standard winter fare, how long it lasts if it verifies is the question. 

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GFS 6z ens (London) have moved more towards a brief cooler blip post breakdown before milder air returns. The scatter is a touch hard to resolve so may not be wall to wall average/mild but will need to get a clearer signal. 

ECM ens wise there's more scatter and looking at the individual members suggests it's a volatile pattern - mild/chilly/mild again with enough precip spikes to suggest it's in an unsettled flow.  There are still a few members that have more prolonged chilly/cold air in place but these are in the minority.

As it stands I'd say unsettled is strongly favoured, with the greatest chance of mild air being in the south although brief chilly periods are possible even here. Pretty standard winter fare, how long it lasts if it verifies is the question. 

there’s an ugly thaw coming Sunday night. But it does seem likely to return to average next week. I have been pondering whether any of my snow pack will survive Sunday’s onslaught: I do have a lot laying. 

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there’s an ugly thaw coming Sunday night. But it does seem likely to return to average next week. I have been pondering whether any of my snow pack will survive Sunday’s onslaught: I do have a lot laying. 

more likely the warm wind will do for it than actual temp or rain unfortunately.

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there’s an ugly thaw coming Sunday night. But it does seem likely to return to average next week. I have been pondering whether any of my snow pack will survive Sunday’s onslaught: I do have a lot laying. 

Probably best to temper expectations and remember you are in Chingford not Warsaw or Helsinki. 😁

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