👍 Yes - same here, especially on higher ground but more like 6-8cm. Plus today is going to be an ice day with temp now fallen to -2.0C at 3.00 pm !
Nearer to you my daughter measured 10-12cm in built up area of Walthamstow. Amazing really and easily the most wintry December here since 2009-2010.

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Well I think it is probably safe to say now that there won't be another cold spell now until at least January but for many of us even if there are no more cold spells it will still be the coldest, snowiest winter for ten years.

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We had better pin all our hopes on the 06z NAVGEM then!!

Not much chance of that happening and the 12z ICON shows the northern hemisphere pattern reverting quickly back to normal compared to the 00z run....

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Well I think it is probably safe to say now that there won't be another cold spell now until at least January but for many of us even if there are no more cold spells it will still be the coldest, snowiest winter for ten years.

I'm back from a one-night holiday at Heathrow Airport (a long story, and a painful one) and it's interesting to see how Sheppey is just green and soggy, with a little bit of frost. The buckets of rain we had the other day meant the little bit of snow we had soon melted.

Get to Maidstone, though, the other side of the North Downs, and it's a winter wonderland. That continues along the M25, too, with snow still on the branches of trees and so forth.

So for here, a damp squib really (aside from the novelty of a brief slushy dusting), whereas other areas hit the jackpot it seems. Nothing like getting snow and ice-, or near-ice-days for a while afterwards!

That snow will poof pretty quickly though this weekend and Monday by the looks of it. Dewpoints down here are modelled to be anywhere from 9 to 11C on Monday and combined with a breeze that is an absolute snowmelter, you can lose several inches a day easily in those conditions.

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there’s an ugly thaw coming Sunday night. But it does seem likely to return to average next week. I have been pondering whether any of my snow pack will survive Sunday’s onslaught: I do have a lot laying. 

It could get rather icy and slippery for a time.

Looking like some areas will start with snow on leading edge, turning to sleet, then cold rain, and then rain.   But in many areas the ground surface is frozen hard.    

Wouldn't rule out a transition of icy freezing rain for a while, which could be lot worse than last Sunday in South. Potentially some roads and paths turning to ice rinks for a period.  Although won't cause hours of problems like before as warmer weather follows.

 

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GFS 6z ens (London) have moved more towards a brief cooler blip post breakdown before milder air returns. The scatter is a touch hard to resolve so may not be wall to wall average/mild but will need to get a clearer signal. 

ECM ens wise there's more scatter and looking at the individual members suggests it's a volatile pattern - mild/chilly/mild again with enough precip spikes to suggest it's in an unsettled flow.  There are still a few members that have more prolonged chilly/cold air in place but these are in the minority.

As it stands I'd say unsettled is strongly favoured, with the greatest chance of mild air being in the south although brief chilly periods are possible even here. Pretty standard winter fare, how long it lasts if it verifies is the question. 

That's a good, level headed analysis. Unsettled and mild/chilly/mild sums it up from this weekend on, most likely until month end at least. And there will be some unpredictability as to exactly how mild or chilly it will be. After month end, who knows? We didn't see the current cold spell coming up until late November. 

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there’s an ugly thaw coming Sunday night. But it does seem likely to return to average next week. I have been pondering whether any of my snow pack will survive Sunday’s onslaught: I do have a lot laying. 

Looks to me like the thaw will set in Sunday daytime with a lot of rain; what with that and midnight temps Sun/Mon of 12C, the chance  survival of any snow is zilch.

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LOL @ GFS 12z. Brings a beautiful and potent northerly blast next week.
Can't see that verifying, but time will tell.

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12z GFS follows the 06z NAVGEM 😉

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12z GFS follows the 06z NAVGEM 

Haha. In NAVGEM we trust.  

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LOL @ GFS 12z. Brings a beautiful and potent northerly blast next week.
Can't see that verifying, but time will tell.

Usual butterfly wings stuff - the pattern is one where a slight tweak to the various HP and LP strength and positioning can have a big impact on us. I suspect given this option has been in the ens it will still collapse that ridge and bring milder air to the southern half of the UK but you never know.

Edit: Or maybe not lol

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The 12Z GFS OP is a bit strange as it looke dlike a failry clean Northerly has dropped even from most of the suite, let alone the last few OP runs.
With UKM and GEM it's actually quite a lean back towards the Sun/Mon mild blip rather than start of a spell.
Too early to comment on the GEFS but it'll be complete in a hour.

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The 12z GFS +204  chart is a tantalising set up pre Christmas!
The +204 GEM is not that much different and much improved from the 00z. I'm guessing the big positive heights anomaly over NE Siberia is casting big headaches for the modelling.
I think anything could happen, and a very exciting period of model watching.

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I'd bet my house on this being a massive outlier.
If I'm wrong, I'll eat my hat and post an image of me doing so!

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Bloody hell - you dont see many christmas eve charts looking like that

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The segregation of the Atlantic lows leads to high pressure to the north-west of the UK on the GFS 12z forcing the next Atlantic low to undercut leaving the UK in a cold / cool place over Xmas!
https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2022121412/gfs-0-264.png?12 

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Bitterly cold Christmas Day shown by the GFS 12z. Snow in places and with low pressure knocking on the door it wouldn't take much to turn into one of the all time classics.

  

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Yes please! 😜😜

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Haha. In NAVGEM we trust.  

Never knock a NAVGEM northerly.  

Astonishing GFS! Cat amongst the pigeons. 🥶❄🌨☃️

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Probably best to temper expectations and remember you are in Chingford not Warsaw or Helsinki. 😁

Ha ha, indeed. I am expecting a washout TBH!

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