Some really informative posts on NW by some of the 'pro' posters there. For anyone down in the mouth have a read - it seems our atmospherics are unlike anything seen for a long while, if ever, no guarantees of course, but it does sound like this winter could be one that keeps giving.

Just look at next week, in 'normal times' once a breakdown happened that would be it, zonal train, but no, it looks like a mild blip before NW winds set in.

Also a very informative Met 10 day trend, unusually uncertain which is good for coldies.

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👍 Yes - same here, especially on higher ground but more like 6-8cm. Plus today is going to be an ice day with temp now fallen to -2.0C at 3.00 pm !
Nearer to you my daughter measured 10-12cm in built up area of Walthamstow. Amazing really and easily the most wintry December here since 2009-2010.

Yeah Walthamstow got a lot by their standards - just driven through. Still a lot lying on the parks etc. North Chingford is higher up and right next to Epping Forest - which has had metric s**t tonnes of the stuff!

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Haha. In NAVGEM we trust.  

I’ve always said Navgem is a trendsetter - it leads where others follow 😀

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UK Met Global looks interesting to me.

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Bitterly cold Christmas Day shown by the GFS 12z. Snow in places and with low pressure knocking on the door it wouldn't take much to turn into one of the all time classics.

  

I think with a minor tweek it wouldn't be one of the all time classics, it would be the all time classic!



 

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I'd bet my house on this being a massive outlier.
If I'm wrong, I'll eat my hat and post an image of me doing so!

All eyes on the ensemble suite Kieron.

Wouldn’t you prefer a mince pie?

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All eyes on the ensemble suite Kieron.

Wouldn’t you prefer a mince pie?

I'm on a diet!!
Also, I have no idea how to post images anyway! 😂😂

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I'm on a diet!!
Also, I have no idea how to post images anyway! 😂😂

Nor me. I tried and failed on Monday.

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I guess we will know shortly whether the festive 12z op commands any support. I doubt it. But who knows?

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Shocked by the GFS 12z!  If that comes to pass, this December would rival 2010!

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I guess we will know shortly whether the festive 12z op commands any support. I doubt it. But who knows?

Well the GEFS mean is quite a bit colder by T180 than the pervious run. -4C isotherm across Manchester instead of Scotland.

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Shocked by the GFS 12z!  If that comes to pass, this December would rival 2010!

It's another GFS Op that would almost certainly produce a negative cet December.  Madness. 
 

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I'd bet my house on this being a massive outlier.
If I'm wrong, I'll eat my hat and post an image of me doing so!

You really ought to stop hopecasting, Mooms 

😋

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The op does have support, and interestingly there is now a cluster developing around the 23rd December. 

P11 is very fun!

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I'd bet my house on this being a massive outlier.
If I'm wrong, I'll eat my hat and post an image of me doing so!

The GEFS ensemble data are out up to the 24th of December and at that point while it is one of the coldest runs it is not a “massive outlier”. Perhaps start seasoning that hat?

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The CMC runs also looks quite interesting IMO at t+10 days.

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GEFS control run also points to a white Christmas in places.

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The GFS op is only the fourth or fifth coldest ensemble member, so while certainly on the cold side it’s not entirely without support nor can it genuinely be classed as an outlier.

More runs needed!

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The GEFS ensemble data are out up to the 24th of December and at that point while it is one of the coldest runs it is not a “massive outlier”. Perhaps start seasoning that hat?

he might need it to keep his head warm!

Shocked by the GFS 12z!  If that comes to pass, this December would rival 2010!

Already eclipsed 2010 in my book, although I was living in west London then. Not sure what it was like in North East London?

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