40C on the 06z, people.

14th Aug

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40C on the 06z, people.

14th Aug

Yes that weekend is looking hot. On the 06Z it is very quickly followed by a cool plunge, whereas on the 00Z high pressure stayed in charge more.

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Yes that weekend is looking hot. On the 06Z it is very quickly followed by a cool plunge, whereas on the 00Z high pressure stayed in charge more.

Still 9 30C days on the 06z though, and 4 of 35C+

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Looking through the GEFS it does look rather like any hot air will be swept away just in time for my holiday starting on the 13th! Hopefully the heat will be delayed a few days as we saw with the last one.

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Looking through the GEFS it does look rather like any hot air will be swept away just in time for my holiday starting on the 13th! Hopefully the heat will be delayed a few days as we saw with the last one.

I prefer the 0z ones because if the 6z come off will see weeks of cloudy weather once again after the heat. 

Cloudy in Slough so I believe SE also have lot of clouds issue like in the Midlands. 

A bit of a shift towards cooler and less settled weather around midmonth on the 6Z set. Op and control still go hot but there are a lot of cooler options dragging the mean down.

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Nice to see some snow forecast in the UK. Makes a change from all the heat-chasing, anyway!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfh7n5qpt#?date=2022-08-05

Fri 5 Aug: Light snow changing to light showers by late morning.

 

 

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12z offers some relief to heat haters. Just a very brief warm up, then significantly cooler (though still dry).

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12z offers some relief to heat haters. Just a very brief warm up, then significantly cooler (though still dry).

Except that that output doesn't align with the increasingly consistent message over the last few runs, but of course we are all at liberty to  comment on the models at any stage.

The ENS suite will be worth watching.

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Except that that output doesn't align with the increasingly consistent message over the last few runs, but of course we are all at liberty to  comment on the models at any stage.

The ENS suite will be worth watching.

Oh absolutely, it's completely at odds with previous runs, so the ENS will be interesting for sure.

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Except that that output doesn't align with the increasingly consistent message over the last few runs, but of course we are all at liberty to  comment on the models at any stage.

The ENS suite will be worth watching.

As I mentioned above the 6Z GEFS signalled quite a big change away from the heat of previous sets so I wouldn't be surprised to see some support for the cooler outlook (not least because I am on holiday that week).

 

Just three 30C days on the 12Z op, one of which is tomorrow.

 

Edit: so far the GEFS mean actually looks a bit higher than the 06Z mean.

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Nice to see some snow forecast in the UK. Makes a change from all the heat-chasing, anyway!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gfh7n5qpt#?date=2022-08-05

Fri 5 Aug: Light snow changing to light showers by late morning.

I really can't wait for this summer to end. I love the look of summer, but I just hate the feeling of it. 

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Summer hasn't really began in The Lakes apart from that one daft day! Don't wish it away until we've had some please!

We had our lights on at 7pm tonight so dark and so foggy above 250m!

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Summer hasn't really began in The Lakes apart from that one daft day! Don't wish it away until we've had some please!

We had our lights on at 7pm tonight so dark and so foggy above 250m!

I was in the Yorkshire Dales at the weekend and it was like being in another world - low cloud, rain... I saw more rain in one night than we have had in six weeks here!

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GFS 18z is back to 11 days >30C again.

GFS 18z is back to 11 days >30C again.

It was a bit of a warm outlier though. Overall it’s looking like a fairly brief hotter spell followed by a return to cooler and less settled (although still not really wet in the south) conditions from mid month. 

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It was a bit of a warm outlier though. Overall it’s looking like a fairly brief hotter spell followed by a return to cooler and less settled (although still not really wet in the south) conditions from mid month. 

9 30c days and about 3 29s on the 0z GFS.  Very decent summer run in my book.

 

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9 30c days and about 3 29s on the 0z GFS.  Very decent summer run in my book.

 

Agreed better than  last month and here will be 25C to 30C+ days of sunshine.  Was 27 on Monday near sunny day.   No thanks to cloudy then 40C then straight back to cloudy set up so a relief that models drop this stupid set up.  1995 was best so repeat is welcome. 

 

9 30c days and about 3 29s on the 0z GFS.  Very decent summer run in my book.

 

ECM 0Z still having none of this, save for 1 or 2 days of hotter weather.

Which will be right?

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WX summary repeats yesterday's charts:  for Britain the really hot weather is now week 2 and only for England SE of Exeter-York while N Scotland along with most of Scandinavia and (later on) W Russia remains cool. Rain now pushed north, to N Scotland and N Scandinavia and (week 2) N Russia while the extremely dry area settles over the Channel, extending E-wards to Baltic and Ukraine week 2. If anything the hot area and the dry area affecting the UK have shrunk a little.

Jet - bits and pieces of the jet around the UK this week; then nothing until about Tue 17th when a W-ly flow appears.

GFS - current trough system moving away slowly NE and replaced by HP 1030mb SW of Ireland Sun 7th (deferred from yesterday's chart) This transforms into SW-NE ridge until Fri 10th when LP moves in first from the S then on Tue 16th from the NW, but HP back from the Azores on Fri 19th.

GEFS - from cool Sat 6th rising to warm/v. warm Sat 13th (op & control more bullish than mean; earlier in N ) after which lots of disagreement; the mean is back to norm by Fri 19th but so much divergence that result v uncertain. Some rain even in the S after Sat 13th, more in N

ECM - after Fri 10th it's not so much a matter of LP moving in as HP withdrawing to the Atlantic - pressure still fairly high but winds go round to the NW

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