Not sure I share the optimism in here for August. Next week looks pretty sunny and warm but by the middle of the month it lookmore likely to turn rather cool and windy and unsettled, even if not all that wet in the south.

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0Z GEFS seems to have firmed up on the less hot route from mid month. Still a few stragglers around the 20C mark though.

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UKMO looks the pick of the bunch for sustained warmth and settled weather this morning.

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WX this morning a slight downgrade for the hot weather fans; still hot across continental Europe with the only cool places being Scandinavia (esp the N) and W Russia, but for Britain the really hot weather is forecast to stay the other side of the Channel. Warm in the SE, but average elsewhere. Little rain anywhere exc the far N Atlantic in week 1, and a very dry area around the Channel; more rain everywhere in week 2 esp in the N Sea and maybe even affecting England.

GFS Op - ridge of HP aligned SW-NE across Uk by Sun 7th, persisting until Fri 12th*, when LP near Iceland extends a trough S-wards which hangs around the N Sea until Wed 17th (and eventually sliding SE into Europe) setting the scene for a deep depression (remember those?) 985mb Rockall Fri 19th

GEFS - cool this weekend, rising to peak warmth Fri 12th, mean dropping back to norm a few days later with the Op now switched to one of the coolest ens members, and some indication of rain in the S from that date. Similar pattern in the N but more certainty of rain.

ECM - similar to GFS, but a less marked trough after Fri 12th 

* sorry about the 10th/12th typo yesterday - should have been 12th - maybe I slipped it in to see if anyone read the review or maybe not

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0Z GEFS seems to have firmed up on the less hot route from mid month. Still a few stragglers around the 20C mark though.

Yep Pete Tong could be arriving about the 13th , I blame your holiday Rob.

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Tbf GEFS still look pretty good. 

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Well, at least it looks fairly nailed on that we (in the south) have at least a week of summery weather to enjoy rather than worrying about the breakdown.

The GEFS mean charts have 8 straight days of 80F+ temperatures in the south from Sunday to Sunday, including 4 days above 30C. The mean maximum in the south doesn't dip below 25C until the very last day of the run, Friday 19th, when it drops to 24C.

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Interesting pattern of the op runs on the main models (except UKMO) cooling down after mid-late next week, but the ensemble members keeping the heat going.

Either coincidence, in which case the ops will revert to prolonged heat, or they are picking up something. But bear in mind last night GFS 18z was hot almost the whole way through.

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P14 is this morning’s 1976+ run.

From Monday: 29,31,32,32,32,33,31,33,35,34,38,36

A heatwave for the ages. Several minima in the 20s too. More 30s to come at end of run.

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UKMO block looks very robust and unlikely to slip away as per GEM and ECM op

Hard to say which way this will go, but a hot week coming up regardless

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UKMO block looks very robust and unlikely to slip away as per GEM and ECM op

Hard to say which way this will go, but a hot week coming up regardless

GFS also has a much more robust block on the 6Z. Mid 30s by the end of next week and no cooldown imminent on this run.

 

Edit: the cooldown does come but the warmth hangs for longer than previously.

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GFS control also sustains the heat and we could get 40

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The Met Office have come on board with a hot week to come from Sunday onwards and this could last some time

Anybody know why the GFS ENS roll-out is stuck on 252hrs? Is it just my device?

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P14 is this morning’s 1976+ run.

From Monday: 29,31,32,32,32,33,31,33,35,34,38,36

A heatwave for the ages. Several minima in the 20s too. More 30s to come at end of run.

It will happen eventually and not this summer due to clouds issues, 90% chances of those temps you posted we could had got it this year if wasn't the severe cloud issues.  

 

It will happen eventually and not this summer due to clouds issues, 90% chances of those temps you posted we could had got it this year if wasn't the severe cloud issues.  

Latest GFS suggests 92.6hrs sunshine in London for the next 7 days which ain’t bad.

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Anybody know why the GFS ENS roll-out is stuck on 252hrs? Is it just my device?

It's out a bit further on Meteociel but still not completed.

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Latest GFS suggests 92.6hrs sunshine in London for the next 7 days which ain’t bad.

That would be good to see how high the temperatures responding from the very dry ground.  Here was 24C today and 28C yesterday unknown on Tues as i was in Slough.  Expecting 27-32C days in here and low 30's in SE.

Anybody know why the GFS ENS roll-out is stuck on 252hrs? Is it just my device?

There was a problem with dissemination of data from the super computer to the file servers. It has now been resolved and the 12z update should complete on time or close to it. 

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It's out a bit further on Meteociel but still not completed.

You probably know already, but it's worth repeating this for others who may read this thread because questions about chart updates are regularly raised. Basically, if charts are not updating on TWO or whichever site / app you use then have a look at one of the others. If they are also not updating the most likely reason is a problem upstream which is beyond the control of the website / app owner. 

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