Oh dear UKMO flips back to the colder scenario alongside GEM

GFS on its own, lets see what ECM op does

ECM op hot option this time

ECM op hot option this time

ECM looks a bit messy to be honest.

ECM op hot option this time

Wish we have this set-up all summer and winter so we will get good summers and cold snowy winter like Japan.  That chart seem 2000miles of easterly flows I know from Cyprus to UK is just above 2000 miles away.

ECM op hot option this time

A classic example of an 'if only it was January' chart if ever there was one...

I would have thought the ensembles don't get much better than this for many people. Dry, very warm or hot, but not the extremes of July. Temps into the low to mid 30Cs. Now for me that's a 147 clearance.

I would have thought the ensembles don't get much better than this for many people. Dry, very warm or hot, but not the extremes of July. Temps into the low to mid 30Cs. Now for me that's a 147 clearance.

Hope the op run isn’t the one though!

18Z is an absolute shocker. Amazing to think GFS was throwing out high 30s for mid month just a couple of days ago. Now it looks as if autumn starts on August 13th.

Summer equivalent of last Christmas when we went from a -15C beast on the models to near record breaking mildness in reality?

18Z is an absolute shocker. Amazing to think GFS was throwing out high 30s for mid month just a couple of days ago. Now it looks as if autumn starts on August 13th.

Summer equivalent of last Christmas when we went from a -15C beast on the models to near record breaking mildness in reality?

But that's London Brian. Do you think we in NW Britain will finally get some sunny, dry weather?

Its not just London - you know how to view charts for other cities I assume so I won’t post them here, but there is exactly the same pattern for Birmingham, Manchester and even Glasgow. 

Cumbria is one of the wettest spots in Europe. You can hardly expect it to have the same climate as the South East. It would be like living in Almeria and asking when are we going to get all that rain they’re enjoying in Asturias.

Trend continues: op runs cooler sooner than the ens mean. GFS and GEM. Interesting.

GFS12z still gives 7 days of 30C+ though.

And again, on both GFS and GEM. The ops are completely out of kilter with the ensemble members from mid next week onwards. Also out of kilter with a very hot settled 00z UKMO.

GFS Op still has 6 consecutive days of 30C next week, with the hottest temperatures on the central South coast.

But that's London Brian. Do you think we in NW Britain will finally get some sunny, dry weather?

I agree with that in terms of any sunshine  as both of our summer months so far at Edinburgh Gogarbank (June and July) have been duller than average and this month isn't exactly setting the heather on fire either, as regards to sunshine totals.

As for rainfall though, it depends very much in NW Britain that you live. It needs to be borne in mind that although Edinburgh isn't quite as parched as England, most of us in the east of Scotland including here in Edinburgh have still been dry enough to warrant a moderate water scarcity classification by SEPA and so, I would say that we could actually do with getting a bit of rain here over an extended period of time.

As for the rest of NW Britain though, I would agree with you on that one as those areas haven't been as dry as it has been here.

The summary charts are at last showing some movement. In week 1 much as before i.e. warm/hot over W Europe just about creeping across the Channel into SE England, cooler in E Europe and definitely cool in N Scandinavia; but in week 2 there's a surge of warmth from the S in the direction of Finland with compensating cool-downs on either side, more so over W Russia than over Britain. Rain from NW Scotland across to the Baltic and also over the Alps (the damp patch in the N Sea was there in yesterday's charts, both am & pm, but now gone again)

Jet - not much action near Britain at first but coming and going across Scotland Wed 10th - Feb 19th

GFS - HP moving up from the SW 1030 mb SW Ireland Sun 7th transforming into a ridge from the Atlantic to Norway before retreating NW-wards and then W-wards from from Fri 12th eventually allowing LP to move to NI 995mb Sun 20th.

GEFS - steady increase to about 6C above norm by Fri 12th with good agreement amongst ens members after which so much divergence that there is no confidence (Scotland reaches a lesser max a couple of days earlier); FWIW the mean slowly decreases to norm by Sun 21st. Small amounts of rain in some ens members after the 12th.

ECM - differs from GFS in strengthening the ridge of HP and developing a centre over Baltic Fri 12th (GFS has a large area of LP in that area at that time). This collapses Mon 15th with HP retreating to the Atlantic

 

And again, on both GFS and GEM. The ops are completely out of kilter with the ensemble members from mid next week onwards. Also out of kilter with a very hot settled 00z UKMO.

GFS Op still has 6 consecutive days of 30C next week, with the hottest temperatures on the central South coast.

ECM going the UKMO route. Warm, sunny, settled right up to 240hrs.

P29 certainly keeps it warm for my holiday… max temps from Monday 15th are 36, 37, 39, 41, 40.

Once again the op run takes the cool route though.

That Op run keeps on doing that. Going for a mini spike followed by a sharp drop - a cooler version of what happened on July 19th. For the period Aug 13-19 something has got to give because it is clearly out of kilter with most other perturbations. I'm expecting the mean to start dipping over that period in future runs. 

Ensembles are a mess beyond the 12th.  But most are very warm/hot and dry