Christ 

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Christ 

Don't remember seeing that channel LP in that position in September? normally from the W to E over the UK or north of us.  This would give us blizzards in the Midlands if was December.  In the mean time will be very very boring weather so hope that large HP after this channel low move away come over the UK,

 

Only a complete moron would believe that 40c was attainable in the UK without climate change,,,the lunatics are taking over the asylum...

43 or 44C is obtainable with climate change, so yes 40C is obtainable without given the right synoptics.

 

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Christ 

Don't panic just yet - a lot of ens members run Danielle NE-wards and just offshore and in one (P18) Danielle has done a disappearing act completely.

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I see the app put 25C on Monday instead of 20C so I guess the LP move further west to allow warmer air tome in.  25C with all day rain will either be wrong, 25C only can reached under Midland September sun strength otherwise typical 18-19C under the rain.  With hurricane now around everything changes in he minute so window watching is the only option.  No rain yet so far on day 2 of supposed to be wet weather.

The 10-day summary continues to cool  Europe down into week 2, rather patchily so that for instance there is still modest warmth for England and Poland; hot weather has retreated to Spain and Black Sea areas. The rainfall outlook keeps changing - week 1 a lot of rain for Britain plus some over the Alps; week 2 a lot of rain all across W Europe and Scandinavia, only Spain and Poland holding out.

GFS Op - current Lp over Ireland drifting around but not moving much until Sat 10th when it crosses over to the N Sea with modest rise of pressure for the weekend. In the meantime hurricane Danielle has moved up towards Iceland with minimal effect on UK but draws in TS Earl which looks to have strengthened to hurricane strength and is 975mb Land's End Tue 13th moving on to Denmark and filling Fri 16th leaving a broad trough in its wake with NW-lies.

GEFS - mean temps near norm, occasionally a little above, and plenty of rain this coming week, then some big totals next week in some but not all ens members

ECM - which got Danielle's track right yesterday, now joined by GFS - resembles GFS but at end of its more limited run is slow to bring TS Earl across to this side of the Atlantic

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The track of the low pressure ex storms or whatever you want to call them could prove quite pivotal for this autumn. Hopefully we get a few storms coming through and giving a good soaking

Seems to me to be some fairly significant differences in how the GFS and ECM are modelling the movement and development of the hurricanes, which makes FI even more pointless than usual. A shift either way could bring a full autumnal pattern or extended summer if the energy serves to develop/reinforce HP near to the UK. 

GFS has 1st one wallowing around mid Atlantic before the next one crosses to it's south, absorbing the remains of the first and making it to the UK as a vigorous depression. ECM has a similar wallowing pattern for hurricane 1 but hurricane 2 drifts North towards Southern US and consequently the ECM has higher pressure over the south eastern part of the UK and unsettled weather restricted more to the North West and no great impetus for the remains of hurricane 1 to head further east.

Temp wise around T240 GFS is warm but not overly so, ECM is very warm and looks uncomfortably humid with it. I'd imagine ECM would stay very warm/muggy for a few days post T240, GFS goes relatively cool as the LP crosses the UK and draws down fresher air as it does so. 

Interesting viewing but I imagine will take 3-4 days at least before the models properly get to grips with where all that energy goes. 

 

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A good soaking of rain this week according the the GFS 168 accumulated precipitation chart. It will be interesting to see where we sit with this in a weeks time ? A fairly decent 20-30mm for most. 50-70mm near some southern and western coasts and over parts of Scotland.

 

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A good soaking of rain this week according the the GFS 168 accumulated precipitation chart. It will be interesting to see where we sit with this in a weeks time ? A fairly decent 20-30mm for most. 50-70mm near some southern and western coasts and over parts of Scotland.

 

It was supposed to be very wet weekend here but instead it been replaced with hazy warm sunshine and on Monday i see the app going for 25C with thunderstorms symbol.  Will help to do my washing clothes outside if dry at first before I go back to work on Tuesday.

 

It was supposed to be very wet weekend here but instead it been replaced with hazy warm sunshine and on Monday i see the app going for 25C with thunderstorms symbol.  Will help to do my washing clothes outside if dry at first before I go back to work on Tuesday.

I'm really not convinced about this rainfall chart Jiries. Hence the reason why I posted it. I'll drink the water in my water butt. If we do receive 25mm this week !

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I'm really not convinced about this rainfall chart Jiries. Hence the reason why I posted it. I'll drink the water in my water butt. If we do receive 25mm this week !

Last week those 2 suspect posters in NW was really believing the GFS rainfall charts and posted many charts of this as a gospel so I find it funny.  Really pointless to make rain and cloud charts as they cannot be pinpointed accurately in real time . It should be scrapped completely, just basic pressure, temperatures, winds and frontal charts which are easily to forecast it.  

 

I'm really not convinced about this rainfall chart Jiries. Hence the reason why I posted it. I'll drink the water in my water butt. If we do receive 25mm this week !

The ECM 00z op had 15-20mm for you over the next week. Perhaps more realistic but I wouldn’t want to hazard a guess in this setup. The 06z has closer to 25mm for you and 40mm here). It’s looking especially soggy over the Angus glens and Perthshire based on most recent output.

Edit: A Met Office warning has now been issued for this area (valid from midnight to 3pm) for between 40 and 60mm of rain places.

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GFS 12z has Danielle hitting the UK and Ireland

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UKMO very different and kills Danielle

But GFS control also seems on track for UK, the warm core showing up clearly

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How much rain in NE Scotland? 

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/UKMHDOPUK12_168_49.png

I would hope that is an outlier!

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Hurricane Earl destroyed England on the pub run

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Hurricanes out on the Atlantic heading this way - maybe. The position and timing appears to change with each successive run. As for now ...

WX temp charts show fairly warm over W Europe week 1, but cooler weather spreading from the E in week 2, just a bit of warmth hanging on along the coasts from the Channel to the Baltic. For really hot weather, go to Spain and the Med. Rain in week 1 concentrated over Britain and to a lesser extent across to Germany; in week 2 this area shifting E and a little S and still affecting S England.

GFS op - Lp off W Ireland deepening somewhat over the next couple of days before filling and moving E across Britain before disappearing as a feature in the N Sea Sat 10th. Then come the ex-hurricanes; anything you now see will probably be different by the next run, and certainly already different from yesterday. Remnants of Danielle are in the Channel 995mb Sun 11th with trough extending to NW. There's also a similar feature following behind which is not TS Earl, but ATM makes little further progress. The N end of the trough from Danielle deepens, allowing a brief rise of pressure from the SW Thu 15th before the trough topples into the N Sea 990mb Denmark Sat 17th with strong NE-lies. Final chart shows weak ridge of HP struggling to establish N-S across Britain Tue 20th.

I haven't forgotten TS/hurricane Earl. Instead of flattening Britain (see Beast' post above) the latest forecast has it as a violent feature running N close to the US coast reaching Greenland Sat 17th 960mb before being absorbed into the Atlantic circulation. If that weak ridge mentioned above doesn't hold up, we could see its remnants approaching as a traditional but active LP from the NW after the 20th

GEFS - with all that uncertainty, not worth a detailed review. Mean temp soon back to norm if not already there in your location; one or two notable warm outliers ca Thu 15th, and a lot of rain for the next fortnight including some heavy falls randomly distributed esp in week 2

ECM - different again (and it has so far done better on hurricanes this season than GFS); Danielle absorbs its follower and trundles N to a position SW of Iceland slowly filling, by Mon 12th leaving a N-S ridge of HP covering UK , warm in the W, cool in the E but in contrast to GFS dry and settled. TS/Hurricane Earl is plotted the same as GFS, deepening and moving up the US coast offshore, off NY by Wed 14th

You pays your money and you takes your choice!

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There is no clear transition of Danielle at all before it hits the UK on the 6Z.

Not a hurricane at this point, but a weak, sheared TS. Even so this would still be the first time it has EVER been recorded to happen.

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There is no clear transition of Danielle at all before it hits the UK on the 6Z.

Not a hurricane at this point, but a weak, sheared TS. Even so this would still be the first time it has EVER been recorded to happen.

Although the FAX analysis for 120 Hrs shows a depression with a warm, cold and slightly back bent occluded front in attendance. Whilst there may be a lifted warm core seclusion (and I'm thinking thats a bit hit and miss) the system looks baroclinic rather than barotropic to my admitedly untrained eye. Its possible the occlusion is being drawn incorrectly and there is indeed a fractured cold front allowing the seclusion through all layers, but that would still be more of a Shapiro Keyser type cyclone than a untransitioned Tropical Storm.

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