All models are showing a significantly sunnier couple of weeks than we’ve seen since mid July. I think people will really notice this. As well as the continued dry weather.

ECM ensembles are consistently showing most runs peaking between 15 and 20C and staying there a few days, and the average goes up to about 12C and stays there for a week, so I expect a decent run of 30s even if ECM is right.

But drink in those sunny days. It will be Jiries-tastic. Meanwhile I’m in the Med facing cloudier than normal conditions with the change of rain next week as pressure drops over the basin.

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WX summary repeats yesterday's charts:  for Britain the really hot weather is now week 2 and only for England SE of Exeter-York while N Scotland along with most of Scandinavia and (later on) W Russia remains cool. Rain now pushed north, to N Scotland and N Scandinavia and (week 2) N Russia while the extremely dry area settles over the Channel, extending E-wards to Baltic and Ukraine week 2. If anything the hot area and the dry area affecting the UK have shrunk a little.

Jet - bits and pieces of the jet around the UK this week; then nothing until about Tue 17th when a W-ly flow appears.

GFS - current trough system moving away slowly NE and replaced by HP 1030mb SW of Ireland Sun 7th (deferred from yesterday's chart) This transforms into SW-NE ridge until Fri 10th when LP moves in first from the S then on Tue 16th from the NW, but HP back from the Azores on Fri 19th.

GEFS - from cool Sat 6th rising to warm/v. warm Sat 13th (op & control more bullish than mean; earlier in N ) after which lots of disagreement; the mean is back to norm by Fri 19th but so much divergence that result v uncertain. Some rain even in the S after Sat 13th, more in N

ECM - after Fri 10th it's not so much a matter of LP moving in as HP withdrawing to the Atlantic - pressure still fairly high but winds go round to the NW

Do you mean Friday 12th or Wednesday 10th in your ECM section?

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WX summary repeats yesterday's charts:  for Britain the really hot weather is now week 2 and only for England SE of Exeter-York while N Scotland along with most of Scandinavia and (later on) W Russia remains cool. Rain now pushed north, to N Scotland and N Scandinavia and (week 2) N Russia while the extremely dry area settles over the Channel, extending E-wards to Baltic and Ukraine week 2. If anything the hot area and the dry area affecting the UK have shrunk a little.

Jet - bits and pieces of the jet around the UK this week; then nothing until about Tue 17th when a W-ly flow appears.

GFS - current trough system moving away slowly NE and replaced by HP 1030mb SW of Ireland Sun 7th (deferred from yesterday's chart) This transforms into SW-NE ridge until Fri 10th when LP moves in first from the S then on Tue 16th from the NW, but HP back from the Azores on Fri 19th.

GEFS - from cool Sat 6th rising to warm/v. warm Sat 13th (op & control more bullish than mean; earlier in N ) after which lots of disagreement; the mean is back to norm by Fri 19th but so much divergence that result v uncertain. Some rain even in the S after Sat 13th, more in N

ECM - after Fri 10th it's not so much a matter of LP moving in as HP withdrawing to the Atlantic - pressure still fairly high but winds go round to the NW

 Maybe just starting to see a pattern change, i.e Dry to Wet. See if that firms up in future runs.

GFS seems on its own with the extended heatwave, hard to say what UKMO would do after 144

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GFS seems on its own with the extended heatwave, hard to say what UKMO would do after 144

GFS 6Z is a world away from 0Z even by T144-168. UK in a col rather than high pressure.

I hate to say it but I think the "summer is over" posts will be getting more frequent in the coming days. Well it is August after all, which seems to be an autumn month these days.

 

Edit: BTFE remember UKMO goes up to 168 hrs on TWO:

 

Looks decent enough for the south still (and in fact has mid 20s right up to the Borders) but I think the GFS may have been leading us up the garden path with promises of more extended heat.

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 Maybe just starting to see a pattern change, i.e Dry to Wet. See if that firms up in future runs.

That's what I'm beginning to think after two days on the trot drizzle after months of generally dry weather. 

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The output does seem to be swinging all over the place at the moment. GFS switching from Scandi high to Scandi trough from run to run. However the general theme does seem to be for the jet to fire up a bit more from mid month.

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Having said that the 6Z GFS brings a tiny 40C isotherm to London on the 16th!

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I wouldn't quite say "no doubt" but it does look very likely with the mean London 850mb temp getting up to 14C for a few days. Incredibly dry ensembles again for the south with virtually zero rainfall for the next 12 days and then only isolated spikes.

As I've just received notification from South East Water of a hosepipe ban starting on 12th August, I'm watching the GEFS for predictions of some much-needed rain.

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Run 8 is today's "super 76" run.

Max temps from Tuesday: 33, 35, 31, 35, 36, 36, 38, 39, 39, 37.

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Run 8 is today's "super 76" run.

Max temps from Tuesday: 33, 35, 31, 35, 36, 36, 38, 39, 39, 37.

That 3rd day of only 31C ensures the 1976 “15 days over 90F”  legend lives on. 

My house would be impossible to sleep in from about halfway through that run.

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That 3rd day of only 31C ensures the 1976 “15 days over 90F”  legend lives on. 

My house would be impossible to sleep in from about halfway through that run.

 

Can you imagine if those synoptics occurred today though? It'd be a lot more than 15 consecutive days >90F. More like 20-odd and probably 10 or 11 of them >35C, maybe 2 or 3 hitting 40C. I read somewhere recently that the temperature spikes in heatwaves are now about 4C higher than they were 30 years ago. It would have a massive impact on the economy and people's way of life. 

The concerning thing is, sooner or later we will have a summer that puts 1976 in the shade for the longevity of high temperatures and drought. What if 2022 is actually the contemporary equivalent of 1975, and 2023 becomes 'the Daddy'?

Probably not, but if this dry spell carries on through the autumn and winter, things will get very serious.

It's all fascinating from the perspective of this weather enthusiast, but also a bit scary.

So, where the 6Z GFS had 24C 850mb temps in the southeast, 12Z has 4C. Good luck to anyone trying to forecast mid-month!

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Can you imagine if those synoptics occurred today though? It'd be a lot more than 15 consecutive days >90F. More like 20-odd and probably 10 or 11 of them >35C, maybe 2 or 3 hitting 40C. I read somewhere recently that the temperature spikes in heatwaves are now about 4C higher than they were 30 years ago. It would have a massive impact on the economy and people's way of life. 

The concerning thing is, sooner or later we will have a summer that puts 1976 in the shade for the longevity of high temperatures and drought. What if 2022 is actually the contemporary equivalent of 1975, and 2023 becomes 'the Daddy'?

Probably not, but if this dry spell carries on through the autumn and winter, things will get very serious.

It's all fascinating from the perspective of this weather enthusiast, but also a bit scary.

This year could be like 1976 because since mid July night temps had been very warm 15 to 20C but sadly daytime temps surpressed very low due to cloudy weather like today and yesterday the heat bottled up above the clouds that prevent heating up on the surface.  Lot of wasted chances this summer while ground still very dry.  

So, where the 6Z GFS had 24C 850mb temps in the southeast, 12Z has 4C. Good luck to anyone trying to forecast mid-month!

Forgot them best is window watch if models cannot be accurate at all. 

 

This year could be like 1976 because since mid July night temps had been very warm 15 to 20C but sadly daytime temps surpressed very low due to cloudy weather like today and yesterday the heat bottled up above the clouds that prevent heating up on the surface.  Lot of wasted chances this summer while ground still very dry.  

Actually until mid July max temperatures were much higher than average compared with min temperatures because it was very sunny and dry. The last 2 weeks have distorted peoples perception. 

With the exception of this Friday it’s about to get much sunnier. You’ll really feel the difference. No more Atlantic muck.

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Extremely hot ECM and GEM tonight. 

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I still can’t say with any confidence whether my holiday starting on the 13th is going to see a 35C+ plume or a cool plunge from the north. Somewhere in the middle is of course more likely…

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It looks like we’re on for something in August. I know the details remain elusive, but worth reflecting on where we are: unless things go completely belly-up, we are going to end up with a warmer and sunnier (and possibly drier) August than average, following a warmer and sunnier and drier July than average (and one of those still-rare 18C+ months) and warmer and sunnier and drier June, the mean temp stats of which hide a pretty decent month with warm days and cool nights. 

When did we last have 3 warmer, sunnier and drier than average summer months? A quick scan suggests 2003, at a push. Before that 1995. August 2018 was duller and wetter than average, ruining what should have been a shoo-in for best ever summer.

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Warm, if not very warm, remains the form horse

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