Hopefully GEM rather ECM, not if you have a garden of course

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High pressure all the way this morning.  Just variations on where it ends up. ECM cooler than the other models. GEM and GFS look hot.

 

Even ECM cooler but really great to see HP from SW to Scandi so that give prolonged sunny days set-up with temperatures you expect from this setup than 40C heat follow by prolonged cloudy weather.  It give a break for Ireland and Scotland to get some summery weather as well.

Hopefully GEM rather ECM, not if you have a garden of course

I dunno - that LP off Brittany has a promising-looking trough to push into the S &SE where the rain is needed. But that's 10 days off

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I don't know whether you saw this as the final post in the last thread

Weather online gives total hours of sunshine at Heathrow as 212.2 for June and 204.6 for July with a day to go (link is so long it'll screw up the formatting here - Google <hours of sunshine London> and scroll down to <climate robot>) 

MetO blog says average sunshine for England for June 2022 was 220.9 hours, or 118 % of average, and similar % for other parts of the UK except Northern Ireland, well below average

 https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2022/07/01/june-extends-run-of-warm-months/

 It certainly feels like a good 200 hours here. Do you need to change your location from Galley Common to Mull or Londonderry? Warwickshire according to the MetO map has had close to average sunshine for June.

 

Indeed local stations around Eastbourne reporting well over 200 hours this month 

The GEFS 12z show what a crazy summer it is and has been, at least down here close to Reading.

Next to no rainfall forecast - no doubt a hosepipe ban coming. 2m temps in general way above average.

What really strikes home is the differential on the 850 to 2m - the 5th being the obvious candidate.

The 850 shows a temp of at least 5 or 6c lower than than the 30 year mean, the 2m is a max of 23c - not exactly cold or unsettled in anyone's books...

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76 on steroids this morning from GFS 0z. About a week of 100f next week . 

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76 on steroids this morning from GFS 0z. About a week of 100f next week . 

UK maxes from today:

28, 31, 32, 28, 25, 28, 30, 31, 36, 37, 37, 37, 38, 38, 33, 28

LOL

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An obvious and extreme outlier on the GEFS, but for London there is virtually zero rain on the entire GEFS suite. Quite something.

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76 on steroids this morning from GFS 0z. About a week of 100f next week . 

As someone who detests summer, that's about as bad an outlook as I could imagine. The only saving grace down here is that it involves an ENE'ly / NE'ly airflow, so the North Sea will take the edge off.

No sign of much interest in the EPS ensembles, though, but I remember last time they were slow to cotton on - GEFS led the way on that one.

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Imagine if that run came off - hosepipe bans everywhere and probably the hottest week on record. Got my fingers crossed 😂

Imagine if that run came off - hosepipe bans everywhere and probably the hottest week on record. Got my fingers crossed 😂

Like August 2003 would be nice.  Must be a U-turn on this week cool down to 20C to now mid 20's.

WX summary continues to move the heat about; the only part of Europe below average temp  is the Norwegian coast. The cooling for Germany noted yesterday has been reduced and move further east, while France and Germany are now hot in week 1, and this heat crosses the Channel in week 2, pushing all the way up to N Scotland, and also crosses the Baltic for a heat wave in S Sweden. Rainin Scandinavia and W Russia week 1, fr area around the Channel. The dry area switches to C Europe week 2 with rain as before but additionally from the Atlantic down through Britain and into France (if true, the combination suggests impossibly humid)

Jet near Scotland for a couple of days, then not much until Mon 16th when a suggestion of a cut-off LP near Brittany (echoes of yesterday's GEM, posted by Beast)

GFS Op - Mid-Atlantic LP tomorrow pushing in some (humid?) SW-lies before brushing past Scotland while HP again builds from the SW 1030 mb Eire Fri 5th. For the following week it re-forms into the usual (for this summer) ridge stretching NE to Norway but with continental LP always threatening the S. Atlantic LP arises on Sat 13th and takes a tour round S Britain before re-grouping 1000mb Scotland Wed 17th

GEFS - warm Fri 5th and again for a long period either side of Fri 12th (though the Op which has been exciting people is a monstrously hot outlier up to 12 C above norm; the mean is a more modest 5C above), Despite mention of LP above and the WX chart, no rain for the S in the next fortnight and not a great deal for Scotland either.

ECM - slower to re-instate the HP (Sun 7th rather than Fri 5th) and by Thu 11th the HP is retreating quite quickly SW though the forecast period doesn't go far enough ahead to show any LP on the Atlantic

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WX summary continues to move the heat about; the only part of Europe below average temp  is the Norwegian coast. The cooling for Germany noted yesterday has been reduced and move further east, while France and Germany are now hot in week 1, and this heat crosses the Channel in week 2, pushing all the way up to N Scotland,

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Scarily, that has a 26C mean isotherm over England in week two. I've been watching these since the turn of the millennium and I've never seen the like - there was a tiny bit of 24C in the last heatwave at one point, but nothing like that 26C.

 

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http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Scarily, that has a 26C mean isotherm over England in week two. I've been watching these since the turn of the millennium and I've never seen the like - there was a tiny bit of 24C in the last heatwave at one point, but nothing like that 26C.

 

the scale used to be in 5C increments and I remember the 25C isotherm over the UK briefly during the 2003 heatwave. 

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An obvious and extreme outlier on the GEFS, but for London there is virtually zero rain on the entire GEFS suite. Quite something.

It's not an extreme outlier, in fact one or two runs go higher again.

After leading the way last time, you wouldn't back against GFS at the moment.

ECM is much, much cooler still.

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http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Scarily, that has a 26C mean isotherm over England in week two. I've been watching these since the turn of the millennium and I've never seen the like - there was a tiny bit of 24C in the last heatwave at one point, but nothing like that 26C.

 

It's in the charts, so worth watching. But WX is AFAIK based on the Op run which as noted above is a spectacularly hot outlier amongst the ens members

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Talk of heavy tropical downpours for southern England during the first half of the week, but BBC Teletext 5 dayer has mainly dry with just the odd isolated shower. Who has it right? Time will tell.

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06z not as hot as 00z obviously, but general pattern is similar

 

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Talk of heavy tropical downpours for southern England during the first half of the week, but BBC Teletext 5 dayer has mainly dry with just the odd isolated shower. Who has it right? Time will tell.

We had one yesterday evening which was much needed for the grass, but I doubt any moisture got down very far below the surface

Hopefully get something today, but that could be our lot for a while

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Not a patch on the 00z but still very hot period showing up again 

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