It's not really been one run though. It's been showing variations of this theme for several runs in a row on GFS and is supported by the other models.

Think we need to accept the inevitable.

 What? that it is going to be cool and unsettled for maybe a week . Not too bad really as we have just had a hot few days last week   and this week is showing temps up to 25c as far north as York and not breaking down generally till Friday, Saturday

 

 What? that it is going to be cool and unsettled for maybe a week . Not too bad really as we have just had a hot few days last week   and this week is showing temps up to 25c as far north as York and not breaking down generally till Friday, Saturday

The Met Office have even been predicting temperatures of 25°C for as far north as Aberdeen in the coming days.

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 What? that it is going to be cool and unsettled for maybe a week . Not too bad really as we have just had a hot few days last week   and this week is showing temps up to 25c as far north as York and not breaking down generally till Friday, Saturday

Maybe a week.

My hunch is a couple of weeks at least. Maybe an improvement by 2nd week of July if the AMO does go positive as has been suggested, but a pretty wet spell coming up.

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The Met Office have even been predicting temperatures of 25°C for as far north as Aberdeen in the coming days.

Yes, the next 4 or 5 days look decent with a sign of things beyond +120hr becoming cooler and more unsettled. I wonder how the weekend will look by the time we get to Thursday’s runs.

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It's not really been one run though. It's been showing variations of this theme for several runs in a row on GFS and is supported by the other models.

Think we need to accept the inevitable.

Yes the GFS in particular which I believe to be the most reliable long range model has been showing this quite consistently and is supported by the GEFS into early July. It certainly feels like more obscure models are being used by some to suggest it is going to be very hot and settled though when that isn't supported by the majority of the more mainstream models.

I accept it has been a mostly pleasant June but just commenting that the outlook now isn't looking great for late June into July.

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Yes the GFS in particular which I believe to be the most reliable long range model has been showing this quite consistently and is supported by the GEFS into early July. It certainly feels like more obscure models are being used by some to suggest it is going to be very hot and settled though when that isn't supported by the majority of the more mainstream models.

I accept it has been a mostly pleasant June but just commenting that the outlook now isn't looking great for late June into July.

I have a hope that mid July onwards will bring us something more akin to summer, and not just quick blink and miss it snaps.

 

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I have a hope that mid July onwards will bring us something more akin to summer, and not just quick blink and miss it snaps.

 

Like what we have currently you mean? June has been mostly sunny, sometimes hot, sometimes unbearably hot, but largely pleasant. We’ve had some rain for the plants which was much needed.

I stand by my view that some members seem to believe that Oxfordshire should have the climate of Marbella; Leeds that of Antibes. 

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Yes the GFS in particular which I believe to be the most reliable long range model has been showing this quite consistently and is supported by the GEFS into early July. It certainly feels like more obscure models are being used by some to suggest it is going to be very hot and settled though when that isn't supported by the majority of the more mainstream models.

I accept it has been a mostly pleasant June but just commenting that the outlook now isn't looking great for late June into July.

Out of curiosity which “obscure” models have people used?

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Out of curiosity which “obscure” models have people used?

can’t wait for the answer to this 😂

Going by some of the comments on here, you would think that summer was about to come to an end by this coming weekend once any unsettled weather moves in.

In a way, it wouldn't actually surprise me if that then ended up being "it" for our "summer" because that sort of thing has happened before on numerous occasions.

However, I just don't really see it actually playing out that way. We are after all, just three weeks into this summer and the astronomical summer doesn't even start until tomorrow (that will be the day of the summer solstice).

There is therefore, a very long way to go and I wouldn't exactly be writing off the rest of this summer just yet.

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Like what we have currently you mean? June has been mostly sunny, sometimes hot, sometimes unbearably hot, but largely pleasant. We’ve had some rain for the plants which was much needed.

I stand by my view that some members seem to believe that Oxfordshire should have the climate of Marbella; Leeds that of Antibes. 

Yes June has been decent so far. Importantly it’s been quite sunny. Despite the cold nights early in the month that’s made it feel more summery than some other statistically warmer but  duller Junes.

I would say sun and temperature are equally important until the daily max is above 22C and min above 10C, beyond which sunshine is significantly more important to summeriness than temperature.

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Out of curiosity which “obscure” models have people used?

Well the Aggrepe model and UKV have been getting a lot of attention recently, take last week's heat spike, they were well wide of the mark showing 36/37c in the run up when GFS called it right with a more sensible 32c. 

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Well the Aggrepe model and UKV have been getting a lot of attention recently, take last week's heat spike, they were well wide of the mark showing 36/37c in the run up when GFS called it right with a more sensible 32c. 

It was very hot and although the ARPEGE model did and often does overestimate the temperatures, I would not call it (ARPEGE) and certainly not the UKV obscure models. I suspect that the Met Office may disagree with that description, especially in the case of the latter model. Additionally neither model showed prolonged very hot conditions as far as I am aware?

I think at short notice it is right that the higher resolution short range models get attention? In the longer term the ECMFWF, UKMO, GFS and GEM (probably in that order) should be looked at. They currently show a warm week followed by more unsettled weather from day 4/5. Let’s keep an eye on that as it may (or may not) change given the timescale.

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Your very patient Michael 

 

It was very hot and although the ARPEGE model did and often does overestimate the temperatures, I would not call it (ARPEGE) and certainly not the UKV obscure models. I suspect that the Met Office may disagree with that description, especially in the case of the latter model. Additionally neither model showed prolonged very hot conditions as far as I am aware?

I think at short notice it is right that the higher resolution short range models get attention? In the longer term the ECMFWF, UKMO, GFS and GEM (probably in that order) should be looked at. They currently show a warm week followed by more unsettled weather from day 4/5. Let’s keep an eye on that as it may (or may not) change given the timescale.

ECM ENS 12z not without interest for hot weather fans.

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Arpege is the French government’s own weather model isn’t it? Hardly an ‘obscure’ model as you claim.

(Arpege is also a three Michelin starred restaurant in Paris, not sure humble pie is on the menu)

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It was very hot and although the ARPEGE model did and often does overestimate the temperatures, I would not call it (ARPEGE) and certainly not the UKV obscure models. I suspect that the Met Office may disagree with that description, especially in the case of the latter model. Additionally neither model showed prolonged very hot conditions as far as I am aware?

I think at short notice it is right that the higher resolution short range models get attention? In the longer term the ECMFWF, UKMO, GFS and GEM (probably in that order) should be looked at. They currently show a warm week followed by more unsettled weather from day 4/5. Let’s keep an eye on that as it may (or may not) change given the timescale.

Obviously my English is slipping, because I can’t find any way of getting from ‘High Res’ to ‘Obscure’.

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Most of Europe comfortably warm week 1 though cool in N Russia & some mountain areas and hot in the W Med, according to WX summary charts. Hotting up in week 2 esp Sain and France and spilling over into S England, though if anything N Scotland and Norwegian coast cooling. Dry in the Med and E Baltic week 1, then dry across S Ireland through the Channel week 2; rain quite heavy elsewhere week 1, but fragmentary in week 2.

Jet running weakly (mostly) to N of Scotland to Thu 7th except for a brief period around Mon 27th when Britain is the centre of a loop..

GFS Op - HP nosing in from the W this week but general collapse of pressure on Fri, driven by extension of trough from the N, to arrive at LP centred E Anglia 1005mb Sun 26th. This retreats N-wards, intensifying for a while, but displaced by Azores HP covering the S Thu 30th  and growing to cover the whole country by Tue 5th albeit with hints of LP over France affecting the S Coast EDIT That was the 0z but see posts below re downgrade on the 06z output - the LP is still hanging around on Tue 5th and indeed has quite a deep centre over Cornwall on Sun 3rd

GEFS - warm to Sat 25th, cool to Thu 30th, mean temp then near norm but op & control suggesting very warm in S/SW less marked in Scotland. Rain in a variety of ens members from time to time after Sat 25th, heaviest/most likely  early on and always more likely in the N

ECM - the LP on Sun 26th is instead placed 995 mb Irish Sea and fills in situ rather than retreating. Hp then grows more slowly than shown on GFS and is only just beginning to move in from SW end-of-run Fri 1st, and looking cooler with winds from NW

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Good lord, hoping the 6z GFS is wrong.
It keeps the trough sitting slap bang over the UK for the entire run on this 6z, just circulating around Blighty throughout, bringing copious rainfall and no sign of the Azore High getting a look in.

Not great for high summer at all. Rain every day from Friday to the end of the run.

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Good lord, hoping the 6z GFS is wrong.
It keeps the trough sitting slap bang over the UK for the entire run on this 6z, just circulating around Blighty throughout, bringing copious rainfall and no sign of the Azore High getting a look in.

Not great for high summer at all. Rain every day from Friday to the end of the run.

Yes, make the most of the next 2 days I think as it looks like Summer is going downhill after that.

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