Thanks Doc, for that objective appraisal of the GFS model. I am about to head to the west coast of the Outer Hebrides (an area for which northern blocking is the holy grail) for two weeks. The chart you post suggests 12-13mm for the 7 days, and the 10 day indicates 19, all implying some light showers.

As pointed out by TimS, the outcome is quite strange, with rainfall being highly orographic - dry to the east, and certainly not wet on many western fringes.

Hopefully, from my perspective, the suggestion that Polar Low makes comes to pass, and the outer reaches of GEFS is starting to support that, with pressure (at least in the north) starting to rise in a weeks time - long way off, mind. No southern-type heat, but blue skies and high teens would make me happy.

 

I‘m sure it will be fabulous whatever the weather but with a bit of blue sky it will be hard to beat.

Even with parts of the west being modelled as wetter it is by no means a washout even if the outlook from the weekend is quite cyclonic.

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Ohh I was saying 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

We know Michael, as I said your very patient thanks for your thoughts and knowledge.

 

Moomin, an observation stating what something actually shows is not and cannot be an interpretation. It’s not a difficult concept. What would be an interpretation would be what the weather may feel like or how summery it would be etc. My post did neither.

I said it shows 2mm of rain here in the next 7 days with average to above average temperatures.. On what planet is that an interpretation?! It could be totally wrong, but it is still what it shows. I’m not sure why I bother.

Moomin, an observation stating what something actually shows is not and cannot be an interpretation. It’s not a difficult concept. What would be an interpretation would be what the weather may feel like or how summery it would be etc. My post did neither.

I said it shows 2mm of rain here in the next 7 days with average to above average temperatures.. On what planet is that an interpretation?! It could be totally wrong, but it is still what it shows. I’m not sure why I bother.

 

To be fair to Moomin, he seems to be talking generally for the UK (or at least half of it) and I presume he missed the 'here' part of your post (which was, as you say, factually correct 👍) 

 

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To be fair to Moomin, he seems to be talking generally for the UK (or at least half of it) and I presume he missed the 'here' part of your post (which was, as you say, factually correct 👍) 

 

Yes, I think/hope that is it. 

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For balance. The ECM 12Z looks a fair bit more promising and gets rid of the low relatively quickly and warms up again pretty quickly as a result.
This is my interpretation....
The models are largely all over the place, unsettled spell for a couple of weeks is most likely, but an outside chance of better charts showing up in the coming days.

 

Let's have a virtual friendly hug Doc and move on.

I largely appreciate and love your posts. I was referring to my interpretation over yours, but I don't want to fall out with you over something as trivial as weather.

It will do what it wants to do.

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For balance. The ECM 12Z looks a fair bit more promising and gets rid of the low relatively quickly and warms up again pretty quickly as a result.
This is my interpretation....
The models are largely all over the place, unsettled spell for a couple of weeks is most likely, but an outside chance of better charts showing up in the coming days.

 

Let's have a virtual friendly hug Doc and move on.

I largely appreciate and love your posts. I was referring to my interpretation over yours, but I don't want to fall out with you over something as trivial as weather.

It will do what it wants to do.

 Weather? Trivial? 

Regarding your last sentence, as ever the actual weather will have its say over any of our interpretations (especially if I decide to have a BBQ).

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Some more plumes on the ECM ensembles. One to watch growing trend. 

 

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That’s correct, possible heat spikes appearing early July

GFS suggests very little rain in large parts of the UK this weekend. 5 day totals which go out to Monday at the time of posting. 

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Temp summaries show heat building around the Baltic week 1, with colder patches in N Atlantic and N Russia. Flattening out in week 2 with most of W Europe seasonably warm bar some mountainous areas; some of that warmth creeping into SE England. Rain in week 1 concentrated in the Alps, Caucasus and (of course) NW Scotland; persisting in NW Britain and linking to Norway week 2 while the other patches decline.

GFS Op - LP currently near Iceland moves S to Hebrides 1000mb Fri 24th, intensifies briefly before moving a little further off to the NW but not really going anywhere until Mon 4th when it fades across to Norway and HP from Azores dominates S Britain. But another LP S of Iceland is developing end-of-run 995mb Thu 7th. So for the forecastable, generally a W-ly regime with a gradient from cool and damp in the NW to to dry and warm in the SE

FAX shows this week's LP deeper and closer to W Scotland with a tangle of fronts and showery troughs crossing from the W, but not affecting the SE much

GEFS - warm now, cooler around Mon 27th, then mean temp back to norm with op run occasionally warmer. Amounts of rain in most ens members from time to time, not front-loaded as yesterday, not a lot in the SE, quite heavy and more continuous in the NW (but still a hint of thundery showers in the far S on Thu) 

ECM - similar pattern to GFS at first  but Friday's LP doesn't move off to the NW instead drifting S-wards down the W coast of Ireland typically 990mb allowing a ridge of HP to develop across N Scotland Fri 1st and the LP itself then transforming into thundery-looking LP 1005 mb Dover

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Some more plumes on the ECM ensembles. One to watch growing trend. 

 

Good timing of they keep the as going to ,York on 1st and 2ns July and York does well with heateavws.  Let hope this summer is like this occasionally warm to hot spells follow by very short unsettled pattern

Some more plumes on the ECM ensembles. One to watch growing trend. 

 

could be a few record breakers in that lot, the elusive 40 C is getting closer 

 

could be a few record breakers in that lot, the elusive 40 C is getting closer 

I’d say the chances of that happening this year are slim to none. 

 

I’d say the chances of that happening this year are slim to none. 

Agree. No chance!

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GFS suggests very little rain in large parts of the UK this weekend. 5 day totals which go out to Monday at the time of posting. 

Indeed. Something of a NW/SE split - although the drier quadrant accounts for 60%+ of the UK population. It seems predictions of a wet weekend being “nailed on” might have been somewhat exaggerated. 

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Agree. No chance!

Probably not 40c but 35c must have a better than 50% chance as Europe is already so hot. 

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GFS suggests very little rain in large parts of the UK this weekend. 5 day totals which go out to Monday at the time of posting. 

The ECM is showing a similar story and even after 10 days, both models are now showing not all that much in the way of rainfall in this very parched region of SE Scotland where I live.

That is clearly a massive downgrade from those charts which you showed us in your last video on YouTube but this doesn't surprise me because I have lost count of just how many times recently, the models have shown a much wetter pattern ahead only for that to be downgraded closer to to the time, or for any such wetter spell to either not end up happening at all, or to be so brief that the overall pattern actually ends up remaining unchanged as a result from this persistent predominately dry pattern which we have been in for a very long time now.

To to me, is therefore yet more evidence that water shortages and/or water restrictions such as hosepipe bans are coming to this part of the world.

 

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Just to be clear it is a good chance we will break a record this year which is closer to 40c - how people can say no chance is beyond me considering how quickly heat can now build. Mind you it is from the usual people who have already written off summer.
35c is not exceptional now but I think there is a chance of 39c this summer

The GFS 0z is terrible. Low sat close to the NW of Scotland (at time over the UK itself) almost throughout.

The SE benefits at times from ridging from the south, but for most of the country, it'd be very unsettled.

It's a general theme over the past several GFS runs, with (broadly speaking, the details change) a ScEuro-High too far east to direct impact the UK, but stopping the eastwards advancement of the low, which is on a more southerly trajectory due to blocking over the northern GIN Sea.

 

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