Yes, make the most of the next 2 days I think as it looks like Summer is going downhill after that.

It's gonna pour down for a long time!

Recent GFS runs have been poor in the mid-term (and mostly no better in FI)

UKV 03z going for a dry Saturday in much of the UK.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=108&chartname=rain_rate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20+%20cloud

Indeed, and for 95%+ of its population. That chart won't please some members, who assured us that a wet weekend was "nailed on". 

Still a lot to resolve at this range. 

 

 

Indeed, and for 95%+ of its population. That chart won't please some members, who assured us that a wet weekend was "nailed on". 

Still a lot to resolve at this range. 

I will pin my colours to the mast. If I'm wrong, I am here to be shot at. 🤣

UKV 03z going for a dry Saturday in much of the UK.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ukv.aspx?run=03&charthour=108&chartname=rain_rate&chartregion=uk-region&charttag=Precip%20+%20cloud

Looks like it’s forecasting (thundery) showers to me. Isn’t the UKV notorious for underplaying the extent of showers at that range?

The 12z GFS op run continues the rather dry theme here over the next 7 days with a total of 2mm of rain forecast along with temperatures around or above average throughout.

And in another world, the GFZ 12Z op run continues to show an increasingly long cool and very unsettled spell with rain or showers every day for the entirety of the run.

This has gathered pace and is supported by all the other major models.

The next 2 weeks (at least) looking very poor from a summer perspective.

I am pretty sure a wet weekend for many is nailed on.

I will pin my colours to the mast. If I'm wrong, I am here to be shot at. 🤣

 

And in another world, the GFZ 12Z op run continues to show an increasingly long cool and very unsettled spell with rain or showers every day for the entirety of the run.

This has gathered pace and is supported by all the other major models.

The next 2 weeks (at least) looking very poor from a summer perspective.

My post is factually correct. Perhaps you just didn’t read it correctly?  Which part do you disagree with and do you want me to show the charts to back it up? 

For example, the rainfall accumulation for the coming 7 days: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_168_49.png 

Yes it is wetter in some western parts but it is almost totally dry in the SE. 

It’s not another world or even my opinion my post was factual not an interpretation.

Trivial amounts expected here, I am cutting grass for hay - though it won't bale until after the weekend.
They have been talking up rain for weeks and hardly been anything, just 13mm this month.

Its a strange outlook, very cyclonic Synoptics but very little rain in the East. 

 

My post is factually correct. Perhaps you just didn’t read it correctly?  Which part do you disagree with and do you want me to show the charts to back it up? 

For example, the rainfall accumulation for the coming 7 days: https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_168_49.png 

Yes it is wetter in some western parts but it is almost totally dry in the SE. 

It’s not another world or even my opinion my post was factual not an interpretation.

The outlook for (at least) the next 2 weeks is abysmal for high summer.

Time will tell, but I bet you a virtual pint that you will see considerably more rain than you are suggesting.

The outlook for (at least) the next 2 weeks is abysmal for high summer.

I’m not suggesting anything, I was commenting on the 12z GFS op run.  I believe that’s what we do in a model output thread? I didn’t need to put my interpretation on it, I was just stating what it shows.

I have no idea whether the GFS 12z operational run will prove to be accurate, but then again that wasn’t my point.

 

I’m not suggesting anything, I was commenting on the 12z GFS op run.  I believe that’s what we do in a model output thread? I didn’t need to put my interpretation on it, I was just stating what it shows.

I have no idea whether the GFS 12z operational run will prove to be accurate, but then again that wasn’t my point.

It may not show up the precipitation, but noone can deny what's on the charts, and that is a stationary low pressure for 2 weeks minimum.

Perhaps you disagree and can see something different, I'm not getting at you in any way, but my interpretation of what I see is low pressure, which will equate to unsettled, and at the very least, changeable conditions, and certainly not charts akin to a good summer pattern.

Well the 12z GFS operational is showing a semi permanent low pressure for 2 weeks, which by my interpretation means unsettled and largely cool.

It may not show up the precipitation, but noone can deny what's on the charts, and that is a stationary low pressure for 2 weeks minimum.

Perhaps you disagree and can see something different, I'm not getting at you in any way, but my interpretation of what I see is low pressure, which will equate to unsettled, and at the very least, changeable conditions.

My point is, my original comment was not an interpretation.

If you want to know what I think will happen you can always ask? This will give you a taste.

I think there will be more rain than the 2mm forecast for here. I think it will be quite windy at times. I think there will be sunshine and showers. I think that the weather from the weekend will not be as warm as it is going to be in the next few days and I think it is impossible to say what the weather will be like by the end of next week. None of that detracts from my original observation of what the 12z GFS shows.

In short it could be better, it is unlikely to be dry, warm and sunny but it could be a lot worse (both in terms of temperature and rainfall).

I think things will back west a few hundred miles we have seen this so many times with pressure high to the east or north east so many times I’m not saying because I want warm weather just a a sensible assumption from past experiences.

Gm is the first to hint at this

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php

 

My point is, my original comment was not an interpretation.

If you want to know what I think will happen you can always ask? This will give you a taste.

I think there will be more rain than the 2mm forecast for here. I think it will be quite windy at times. I think there will be sunshine and showers. I think that the weather from the weekend will not be as warm as it is going to be in the next few days and I think it is impossible to say what the weather will be like by the end of next week. None of that detracts from my original observation of what the 12z GFS shows.

In short it could be better, it is unlikely to be dry, warm and sunny but it could be a lot worse (both in terms of temperature and rainfall).

Truth is, noone knows exactly what will pan out, but we can say with quite high confidence that its going to be unsettled for a pretty long period. Whether that is 2 weeks is unknown but that is what I interpretat from the models.

And longer range, both ECM and CFS suggest a disturbed, cool and unsettled July as a whole. 

Yes that's an interpretation, but that is what I see from all the charts that are available.

I am steeling myself for the worst, because that is what is being shown.

I "hope" they are barking up the wrong tree and improvement is showing on following runs, but as is often the case, when the models prog an unsettled pattern its highly likely to verify.

Moomin, an observation stating what something actually shows is not and cannot be an interpretation. It’s not a difficult concept. What would be an interpretation would be what the weather may feel like or how summery it would be etc. My post did neither.

I said it shows 2mm of rain here in the next 7 days with average to above average temperatures.. On what planet is that an interpretation?! It could be totally wrong, but it is still what it shows. I’m not sure why I bother.

Moomin, an observation stating what something actually shows is not and cannot be an interpretation. It’s not a difficult concept. What would be an interpretation would be what the weather may feel like or how summery it would be etc. My post did neither.

I said it shows 2mm of rain here in the next 7 days with average to above average temperatures.. On what planet is that an interpretation?! It could be totally wrong, but it is still what it shows. I’m not sure why I bother.

I am being perfectly polite and you resort to dismissive language, all the time.

At no stage have I been rude or obnoxious to you. I really think you need to block me if I offend you so much.

Thanks Doc, for that objective appraisal of the GFS model. I am about to head to the west coast of the Outer Hebrides (an area for which northern blocking is the holy grail) for two weeks. The chart you post suggests 12-13mm for the 7 days, and the 10 day indicates 19, all implying some light showers.

As pointed out by TimS, the outcome is quite strange, with rainfall being highly orographic - dry to the east, and certainly not wet on many western fringes.

Hopefully, from my perspective, the suggestion that Polar Low makes comes to pass, and the outer reaches of GEFS is starting to support that, with pressure (at least in the north) starting to rise in a weeks time - long way off, mind. No southern-type heat, but blue skies and high teens would make me happy.