ballamar
23 June 2022 08:36:41
End of GFS shows how this pattern could well get some hot weather at short notice again over the UK. At some point it will align to get the hot weather over the UK just a matter of when - Europe is hot
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2022 09:40:00

Originally Posted by: AJ* 


On the subject of rainfall, I'm torn between wanting dry weather for outdoor activities and some rain to top up water supplies. Thankfully Bewl Reservoir, which is a critical source of water here in the far South-East is still at 81% capacity so I'm not expecting a hosepipe ban. (Though Bewl did not fill to 100% full over the winter, and only re-filled to some extent in the Spring.  More info for anyone interested here:


https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1082082/Kent_and_South_London_Water_Situation_Report_May_2022.pdf  )



For me the ideal scenario is dry, sunny days with the occasional spell of rain overnight. We got into that pattern in May for a while but now we've reverted to type (i.e. when it does rain it can happen anytime but seems to fall more during the day!). 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
Downpour
23 June 2022 09:47:46

Originally Posted by: GezM 


 


For me the ideal scenario is dry, sunny days with the occasional spell of rain overnight. We got into that pattern in May for a while but now we've reverted to type (i.e. when it does rain it can happen anytime but seems to fall more during the day!). 



 


We barely seem to have had much rain full stop - except in the wild imagination of some members on here. 


Chingford
London E4
147ft
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2022 10:03:03

Looks like Sweden is the place to go for the next week or so, for heat. The WX maps show a large temperature anomaly and the forecasts show temperatures peaking widely into the high 20s and even the mid 20s north of the Arctic Circle at Kiruna. This is due to an anticyclone building and settling in the Baltics which will advect warm air from the continent.


 Thunderstorms brewing inland with sunny weather on the coasts too. So something for everybody ….


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
moomin75
23 June 2022 11:46:19

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


ECM 12z looks quite dry for the next week in central and eastern England.



If that is 7 day accumulation from today, its already wrong for here as I've recorded 5mm this morning.


Shows how useless these models are.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Saint Snow
23 June 2022 11:50:17

The GFS 6z is having one of its 'looks alright through FI' runs


 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Saint Snow
23 June 2022 11:53:30

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


ECM 12z looks quite dry for the next week in central and eastern England.




 


 


As an aside, that is a classic SW-/WSW-wind chart. Note the rain shadow effect after the Snowdonia mountains for NE Wales/Merseyside, then more orographic rainfall as we reach the Pennines near Manchester.


A minor consideration in the grand scheme, but I notice these things for obvious MBY reasons 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
White Meadows
23 June 2022 13:07:11

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


If that is 7 day accumulation from today, its already wrong for here as I've recorded 5mm this morning.


Shows how useless these models are.


🤣🤣 back to checking CFS then!

Rob K
23 June 2022 14:30:37

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


If that is 7 day accumulation from today, its already wrong for here as I've recorded 5mm this morning.


Shows how useless these models are.



The Witney microclimate strikes again. Barely enough to tip a rain gauge here, just a bit of light refreshing rain on the school run this morning. Now feeling quite warm and muggy.


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
UncleAlbert
23 June 2022 14:55:12

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 


The GFS 6z is having one of its 'looks alright through FI' runs


 



The previous couple of runs had moved away slightly from the horrible scenario of the cut off trough doing a UK spin for a couple of weeks.  I hate to see that sort of progression getting into a groove following the longest day, so with the 06z going one step further, a cautious sigh of relief this afternoon.  Hopefully the next couple of runs will continue this theme!


 


 


 


 


 


 

Downpour
23 June 2022 15:28:25

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


The Witney microclimate strikes again. Barely enough to tip a rain gauge here, just a bit of light refreshing rain on the school run this morning. Now feeling quite warm and muggy.



It really is bizarre how much rain falls in Witney. Probably a great place for gardeners. Absolutely no rain whatsoever here and nothing much progged for days - despite predictions of a “washout”.


Chingford
London E4
147ft
Brian Gaze
23 June 2022 15:34:58

0.6mm rain here today. Another complete bake.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 
"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2022 16:12:25

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


 


It really is bizarre how much rain falls in Witney. Probably a great place for gardeners. Absolutely no rain whatsoever here and nothing much progged for days - despite predictions of a “washout”.


Believe it or not, last July we drove down to Southampton in lovely sunny weather until we got to Oxfordshire and saw a big black cloud ahead on the motorway. We got to the junction for Whitney and the heavens opened with torrential rain. A few miles further, it was dry again.  We did the return journey ten days later and it was exactly the same.  No, I couldn’t believe it either!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
moomin75
23 June 2022 16:32:48

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Believe it or not, last July we drove down to Southampton in lovely sunny weather until we got to Oxfordshire and saw a big black cloud ahead on the motorway. We got to the junction for Whitney and the heavens opened with torrential rain. A few miles further, it was dry again.  We did the return journey ten days later and it was exactly the same.  No, I couldn’t believe it either!  


This sums up my life in Witney.


It really was very wet here earlier today. I have no idea why we seem to get so much rain.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Saint Snow
23 June 2022 16:35:59

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


This sums up my life in Witney.


It really was very wet here earlier today. I have no idea why we seem to get so much rain.



 


 




Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Downpour
23 June 2022 16:45:17

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Believe it or not, last July we drove down to Southampton in lovely sunny weather until we got to Oxfordshire and saw a big black cloud ahead on the motorway. We got to the junction for Whitney and the heavens opened with torrential rain. A few miles further, it was dry again.  We did the return journey ten days later and it was exactly the same.  No, I couldn’t believe it either!  




Chingford
London E4
147ft
moomin75
23 June 2022 16:52:22

Originally Posted by: Downpour 


 



Caz is not lying. We really are as wet as an otter's pocket here.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
23 June 2022 17:03:17

Originally Posted by: moomin75 


This sums up my life in Witney.


It really was very wet here earlier today. I have no idea why we seem to get so much rain.


Perhaps you should move down here Moomin!  Today it’s been 27c, same as yesterday.  Yes, we had a light shower around 3pm that hardly wet the tarmac and it’s sunny again now.  We’ve had very little rain for weeks now. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
White Meadows
23 June 2022 17:14:48
Or maybe it’s a tad over exaggerated, the climate change capital of the world?
ozone_aurora
23 June 2022 17:19:30

Several days ago, the model (especially GFS) resembled that of early July 2012, bringing cool conditions with showers or longer spells of rain, but with mostly dry, sunny spells along the S and SE coastal regions. Now the models (especially the GFS) resembles that of early June 2014, in being warm with sunny spells in SE half of UK but also potentially thundery too.

Users browsing this topic

    Ads