Yuk

Bound to happen, just hope it wont be like Japan at the moment

 

Why do you have a Trump 2024 sticker on your avatar? This isn't a politics forum as far as I am aware. 

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This summer could be quietly shaping up to be a bit of a beauty, after everyone was so keen to write it off before it started. A few cooler and unsettled days to get through this week and then back to warm and dry, at least based on current output.

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This summer could be quietly shaping up to be a bit of a beauty, after everyone was so keen to write it off before it started. A few cooler and unsettled days to get through this week and then back to warm and dry, at least based on current output.

 

Indeed. People on this forum write off summer every year, often well before summer has begun. I seem to remember some members writing off summer on Valentine’s Day in years past…

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I look up to the NW with jealous eyes and see all that welcome rainfall. I have to accept that I live in the driest region of the UK and possibly, due to local topography, drier than the official place at Great Wakering. So far this year, which is now starting summer, I have had just 136mm of rainfall, mostly in the winter months. Somebody else mentioned welcome rain in the S.E corner yesterday - not here just a five minute light shower that barely wet the pavement. 17mm for June which in two or three small drips does nothing. Don't get me wrong, I like sunny summers and don't enjoy long wet spells. But as a keen gardener it is getting ridiculous in the last few years. It is like a Mediterranean climate really but with more cloud and wind!

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I look up to the NW with jealous eyes and see all that welcome rainfall. I have to accept that I live in the driest region of the UK and possibly, due to local topography, drier than the official place at Great Wakering. So far this year, which is now starting summer, I have had just 136mm of rainfall, mostly in the winter months. Somebody else mentioned welcome rain in the S.E corner yesterday - not here just a five minute light shower that barely wet the pavement. 17mm for June which in two or three small drips does nothing. Don't get me wrong, I like sunny summers and don't enjoy long wet spells. But as a keen gardener it is getting ridiculous in the last few years. It is like a Mediterranean climate really but with more cloud and wind!

We are standing at around two thirds ytd average here near Eastbourne 

35m. For June  but feels drier than that and everywhere looks brown and parched out and about . None here either yesterday.  

 

 

Well I did wonder, until I saw his analysis – would be odd indeed in the depths of winter 

 

Sorry, good point, I forgot I had changed it a while back to something less than useful, I will change it back.

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I look up to the NW with jealous eyes and see all that welcome rainfall. I have to accept that I live in the driest region of the UK and possibly, due to local topography, drier than the official place at Great Wakering. So far this year, which is now starting summer, I have had just 136mm of rainfall, mostly in the winter months. Somebody else mentioned welcome rain in the S.E corner yesterday - not here just a five minute light shower that barely wet the pavement. 17mm for June which in two or three small drips does nothing. Don't get me wrong, I like sunny summers and don't enjoy long wet spells. But as a keen gardener it is getting ridiculous in the last few years. It is like a Mediterranean climate really but with more cloud and wind!

 

I go to the far NW of Scotland at the end of July. I'll do you a swap for them.

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I go to the far NW of Scotland at the end of July. I'll do you a swap for them.

Thurso , Durness , Ullapool , Applecross, and Grantown on Spey for me week commencing 8th Aug……….fingers crossed we both see good weather

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I look up to the NW with jealous eyes and see all that welcome rainfall. I have to accept that I live in the driest region of the UK and possibly, due to local topography, drier than the official place at Great Wakering. So far this year, which is now starting summer, I have had just 136mm of rainfall, mostly in the winter months. Somebody else mentioned welcome rain in the S.E corner yesterday - not here just a five minute light shower that barely wet the pavement. 17mm for June which in two or three small drips does nothing. Don't get me wrong, I like sunny summers and don't enjoy long wet spells. But as a keen gardener it is getting ridiculous in the last few years. It is like a Mediterranean climate really but with more cloud and wind!

By that, I assume that you mean everywhere in NW Britain except for here in Edinburgh where as per usual, this latest weather front is breaking up and disintegrating as it reaches us so that we continue to get absolutely nothing from it in terms of rainfall as per usual (if you look closely at the latest radar maps, you will be able to see that process taking place very clearly).

It seems now that if the models tell us it is like to rain here (as has been the case with the most recent output), it probably won't and if the models tell us that it won't rain of course, it probably won't.

In other words, regardless of what the models actually tell us, it just WILL NOT rain here any more.

I'm sure that it never used to be like that but then this kind of thing is what makes these models a complete waste of time in my opinion (that is, unless you live in any other part of NW Britain apart from here in Edinburgh, where you WILL probably get that much needed rainfall and actually get some interesting weather (something which we generally don't get here in Edinburgh).

 

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Output trending warmer into next month. Should get some tasty heat plumes into the south.

Output trending warmer into next month. Should get some tasty heat plumes into the south.

Hope it will be sunny days like 2018 with few clouds and end for good on those nonsense panic forming at 7am and reluctant clearance at 7pm which brought not useable days. 

ECM 0z the pick of the bunch from a heat lovers perspective today as it really turns up the thermostat towards the end. Proper heatwave territory if that verified. And not a short sharp snap, but something more prolonged.

A long way off though.

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Euro temps from Wetterzentrale GFS show the warmth over Scandinavia being pushed away eastwards over the next week by the cooler air currently over UK; the UK itself then benefiting from some modest warmth on W-lies from mid -Atlantic. S Spain and later S France becoming v hot. Rain here and there, England Tue 5th moving to Germany Thu 7th; then mostly dry over W Europe until Thu 14th when thundery (?) stuff over France and Spain.

FAX current LP 999mb Hebrides being replaced by less localised LP at its deepest 1007mb N Ireland Fri both pushing fronts and troughs across UK from time to time. HP nosing in tentatively from the SW by Sunday.

GFS Op as Fax to Sunday; the HP then not making much progress E-wards until Thu 7th (slower progress than shown yesterday) but developing definite centre 1030mb Scotland Tue 12th before retreating W-wards somewhat. 

GEFS temps gradually moving from a couple of degrees below norm now to a couple of degrees above by Mon 11th; a little rain in the next couple of days in the S then mainly dry (the rain shown above by Wetterzentrale GFS only appears in a couple of ens members). Rain persisting a bit longer in the N at first, not quite as dry before rain returns later around the 11th.

ECM like GFS - if anything the current LP regime lasts a day longer, to Sat, but compensation as the HP develops more quickly and strongly to 1035mb Ireland Sat 9th

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ECM 0z the pick of the bunch from a heat lovers perspective today as it really turns up the thermostat towards the end. Proper heatwave territory if that verified. And not a short sharp snap, but something more prolonged.

A long way off though.

West is best for us Midlands at first and more nicer for Ireland that badly needed a summery weather now.  Nationwide settled are much welcome than nw/se which Midlands pending where the split line if good or wrong side are not welcome.

All a bit jam tomorrow at the moment. Next week has been looking pretty warm for most of the country, now it’s giving us low 20s and the 10C+ 850s take until next weekend to arrive.

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MO again showing July settling down into a settled spell, with high pressure to the west and ridging over the UK. No real heat (potentially coolish notherly flow, especially toward the east) but nice for almost all of the country.

The problem is that this is a general set-up that both GFS and ECM have been persistently showing in the models for the period of about +144 onwards for about a fortnight, but it's kept changing as the time has approached.

It'd be nice for it to properly come off (and get stuckin a settled, pleasant, sunny rut) for the rest of summer!!

 

 

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MO again showing July settling down into a settled spell, with high pressure to the west and ridging over the UK. No real heat (potentially coolish notherly flow, especially toward the east) but nice for almost all of the country.

The problem is that this is a general set-up that both GFS and ECM have been persistently showing in the models for the period of about +144 onwards for about a fortnight, but it's kept changing as the time has approached.

It'd be nice for it to properly come off (and get stuckin a settled, pleasant, sunny rut) for the rest of summer!!

 

A potentially nice set up for many with light breezes, warm sunshine and low humidity. Never too hot.

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A potentially nice set up for many with light breezes, warm sunshine and low humidity. Never too hot.

Indeed, lovely classic English summer conditions progged. For many members that will be ideal - not everyone wants raging heat. Liking the output, personally. 

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Indeed, lovely classic English summer conditions progged. For many members that will be ideal - not everyone wants raging heat. Liking the output, personally. 

Good for me. Off for 2 weeks in early July(in the UK). That may curse it of course as it is still a week away

Yes cant really turn our noses up at an ensemble set like this. GFS churning out run after run that gets to 30c at some point over the next 2 weeks.

 

 

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