don’t forget I was told there is no chance of that this summer

I'd give it a 20% chance need everything to be perfect like that GFS run.  But Europe is so hot its frightening. 

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GFS 12z wants a glorious UK High by Saturday week followed by an insane heatwave for the south east in Fantasy Island. Said brutal heatwave would deliver a ludicrous NW/SE split with London at 100F and Liverpool barely scratching 70F.

Probably a daft solution but the trends to finer, warmer weather are undoubtably there.

Can only see one day where that is the case, there are plenty of days of high temps for Liverpool on that run including a couple into the 30's e g +312hrs.  It is a lovely run all round with fluctuating heat, more secure in the SE if course. 

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Yes the final day would be 40c as its 37c at noon.🤪

And it sets it up for the next day to be even hotter. Records in Northern France too. 

Shows what is synoptically possible.

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Hopefully it’s not an outlier. 

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Hopefully it’s not an outlier. 

 

It’s such a beast I very much doubt it will be close to the mean of its ensembles! 😃

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I've just been watching Gavin P.'s latest 10-14 day forecast video and on one or two of the various models, I am seeing some "if only it were winter" charts appearing to northern blocking and resulting easterly winds coming into play.

Normally, that would be something which we wouldn't want to be seeing at this time of the year due to the likelihood of low pressure sitting underneath that block and right over the UK, although the scenario which is shown shows us to be rather lucky in this instance as a result of the blocking high still being close enough to UK to keep that low pressure away from our shores.

Nevertheless, it's just a shame that we can't ever seem to get that sort of setup in the winter when we are actually looking for that to deliver a lot of cold and snowy weather to this part of the world.

 

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Wouldn't suit for us all to think the same.

In summer, I just want a bit of certainty, so you can plan BBQ's/get-togethers/days out with an element of likelihood it'll be decent weather (obviously can't guarantee it, but in a prolonged settled spell you hugely improve the odds!)

 

I thought you weren't a fan of the BBQ mentality, Saint!

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Hopefully it’s not an outlier. 

It's a big outlier, although one other ensemble goes even hotter. 

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I'd give it a 20% chance need everything to be perfect like that GFS run.  But Europe is so hot its frightening. 

Just to state never said certain but it’s possible due to the heat close by. 

I would probably ignore the GFS12z, looks to be a bit of a rogue run and the intense heat is way out in FI so doesn't have much chance of coming off.

Having said that it does look likely that July will be another very dry month, and I would expect temperatures to be at least a little warmer than average, with an outside chance of a record breaking month if the heat is able to build further into the month... 🔥🔥🔥

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Excellent ECM as well tonight.  Hot by the end.

 

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I've just been watching Gavin P.'s latest 10-14 day forecast video and on one or two of the various models, I am seeing some "if only it were winter" charts appearing to northern blocking and resulting easterly winds coming into play.

Normally, that would be something which we wouldn't want to be seeing at this time of the year due to the likelihood of low pressure sitting underneath that block and right over the UK, although the scenario which is shown shows us to be rather lucky in this instance as a result of the blocking high still being close enough to UK to keep that low pressure away from our shores.

Nevertheless, it's just a shame that we can't ever seem to get that sort of setup in the winter when we are actually looking for that to deliver a lot of cold and snowy weather to this part of the world.

 

Isn’t it the seasonal weakening of the jet stream which facilitates more blocking?  It’s harder, and therefore more noteworthy, when northern blocking is able to take hold in the winter months, when the jet stream is at its most active.

Anyway, much as I like seasonal warmth and sunshine, I’m conscious of the rainfall deficit across much of the SE. Incursions if low pressure from the south would be welcome, and offer some interest to fans of thundery weather.

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Isn’t it the seasonal weakening of the jet stream which facilitates more blocking?  It’s harder, and therefore more noteworthy, when northern blocking is able to take hold in the winter months, when the jet stream is at its most active.

Anyway, much as I like seasonal warmth and sunshine, I’m conscious of the rainfall deficit across much of the SE. Incursions if low pressure from the south would be welcome, and offer some interest to fans of thundery weather.

Of course, it's not just the SE which experiencing these rainfall deficits.

That has also been a major issue in parts of SE Scotland as well, including here in Edinburgh where every single month during this year with the exception of February has been substantially drier than average up until now with this month also going that same way.

That is something which I have been pointing out quite a lot in this forum just recently in various threads (I even started a separate thread in order to discuss that very subject and there has been another similar thread since then).

We did get some welcome rain for the gardens today, but it is going to take a lot more than that to get us out of that deficit and if the latest model output is correct, I can't really see that happening any time soon.

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I would probably ignore the GFS12z, looks to be a bit of a rogue run and the intense heat is way out in FI so doesn't have much chance of coming off.

Having said that it does look likely that July will be another very dry month, and I would expect temperatures to be at least a little warmer than average, with an outside chance of a record breaking month if the heat is able to build further into the month... 🔥🔥🔥

would never ignore a run, would be foolish. If we get a high to move across which has been hinted at it will be very hot very quickly

 

would never ignore a run, would be foolish. If we get a high to move across which has been hinted at it will be very hot very quickly

Perhaps but the models often over exaggerate things in the longer range then moderate it nearer the time, still I would expect several days comfortably over 30c in July.

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I'd give it a 20% chance need everything to be perfect like that GFS run.  But Europe is so hot its frightening. 

To me I hope we get this as UK cannot forever avoid the heat and have to get it at some point so hope we get the jackpot and timing is perfect with still long daylight hours as only few minutes less now before it speed up toward August.

 

I thought you weren't a fan of the BBQ mentality, Saint!

 

You may be confusing me with someone else (there's a couple on here who hate them - or, rather, hate neighbours having barbies). I like 'em !!

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Warm, if not very warm, is the balance of the medium term modelling. Ideally it will be fine and sunny but stay on the cooler side of the high and tuck nicely under 30c, but that’s by no means guaranteed given the charts from day 8 onwards.

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Potentially hot conditions being modelled into 2nd week July as shown on 00z. Still a long way off but would fit the narrative from met office’s increasingly warm scenario for next month.

Insane heat once again from GFS.  38c by the end. Third run in a row to show 100f .

 

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