WX summary temps showing general rise to warm or very warm over virtually all Europe over the next two weeks, even W Scotland which has been cool so far this year. Specially hot at times in S Spain and Sicily; cold spots over Switzerland and N Russia. Wet in week 1 still for NW Britain and separately for France; in week 2 much dryer generally esp across France, still a narrow band of rain from Shetland to Norway.
Jet shows loop enclosing cut-off low from Sun 26th, fragmentary at times but persisting to Sun 3rd when weakish W-ly appears N of Scotland shifting to Sw-ly over Ireland Fri 8th
GFS Op shows the cut-off low well established Sun 26th 990 mb Donegal, drifting around and visiting most parts of the UK while filling during the course of the week. Then a strong rise of pressure from the Azores from Mon 4th, lasting the week, but Fri 8th splitting into centres over Norway and Azores.
GEFS shows cool period for a few days either side of Tue 28th, then mean returns to norm but this is an average of majority close to norm with quite a number of ens members warmer esp in S, none cooler; rain most likely for a week beginning Thu 30th in the E, but from Sat 25th and more of it in W
ECM much the same as GFS
Yesterday's ECM showed the cut-off low merging with LP over France later next week, as did the BBC last night, but this now seems to be off the agenda
The WX summary looks much more bullish for warmer temps in the UK, in week 1 especially, than is justified by the synoptics
Edited by user
23 June 2022 07:50:09
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Reason: Not specified
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