Back to the semi-reliable and we seem to have improving 'on the ground' forecasts for London, the Test at Headingley and even Glastonbury, according to some of the raw output. 

It is quite possible that all three locations could escape with minimal rain – which would be a turn up for the books. But, still a lot to resolve. 

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Seems a bit mean – all I said was that the majority of the population lives SE of the line, a fact which we should do well to be cognisant of. 

I dare say few 'care' what the weather is doing in the northern tip of Rockall, although it might hold some hobbyish interest for weather fans from time to time. 

There was nothing remotely “mean” in my comment beyond a suggestion that some people may understandably be more interested in the weather in their back yard than in yours. No one has ever suggested that the majority of people in the U.K. don’t live in the SE of England and trust me you remind everyone ad naseum. It is possible to comment on the weather across the U.K., in the NW, in the SE, in Wales, in NI etc. without needing to apply a parallel population analysis. For example a chart like this shows that parts of the S and N will be rather dry up until midnight on Saturday. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_84_49.png 

A parochial attitude isn’t overly helpful to discussions.

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And, sticking briefly to the IMBY approach for a reason, contrary to most expectations and statements on here, the current ECMWF 10 day accumulated precipitation analysis shows almost all of Scotland - but especially west/north/east. - being drier than Essex and Sussex, the only exceptions being a couple of smallish mountain areas.

And, sticking briefly to the IMBY approach for a reason, contrary to most expectations and statements on here, the current ECMWF 10 day accumulated precipitation analysis shows almost all of Scotland - but especially west/north/east. - being drier than Essex and Sussex, the only exceptions being a couple of smallish mountain areas.

And everywhere looks drier than the far SW of Ireland 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20220702-0000z.html 

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And everywhere looks drier than the far SW of Ireland 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20220702-0000z.html 

Except Witney.

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And everywhere looks drier than the far SW of Ireland 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/accumulated-precipitation/20220702-0000z.html 

 

The colours on that map are so counter-intuitive 

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Except Witney.

Fair point. 

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Actually, that's not true. If you draw a line NW/SE the majority of the population (quite easily) live SE of the line. 

People really forget just how asymmetric the population of this country is. 

Think of a line from the Tees estuary to say Bridport. Very useful for weather trends, I find, in the UK. 

I don't know anyone that would talk about Yorkshire as being part of the South East 😂

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I don't know anyone that would talk about Yorkshire as being part of the South East 😂

maybe not, but parts of it are from a climate perspective, regardless of your northern discomfort with the categorisation.  

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Back to the modelling:

I’m sticking with a (broadly) NW/SE split for the foreseeable. To clarify, by NW I mean NW of a line from the estuaries of the Tees and the Exe. Although some parts 50 miles N/W of that line might still record summery conditions.

Decent start to summer for many, but not all.

I see no “abysmal” “washout” or “write off” for a majority of the population. Realise things are different the further north and west one travels.

A more general settled pattern may emerge as we go through July.

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maybe not, but parts of it are from a climate perspective, regardless of your northern discomfort with the categorisation.  

As I mentioned on the high temperature thread, Leconfield in the East Riding has been the UK hot spot for the past two days, even beating Heathrow!

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ECM 12z looks quite dry for the next week in central and eastern England.

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ECM 12z looks quite dry for the next week in central and eastern England.

But an anomalous 22mm ordered specially for my garden!

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ECM 12z looks quite dry for the next week in central and eastern England.

If that comes off (and that will no doubt be downgraded over time as usual of course), that won't be enough to prevent this month from being drier than average here in Edinburgh yet again, though perhaps not as substantially so as what we have been seeing in other recent months.

The wetter area over Fife and parts of East Lothian looks interesting though and if we could just nudge that a bit further to the SW, that might even bring our rainfall totals for this month up to a value which is close to the 1991-2020 June average for here.

 

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GFS 00z shows virtually no rain in much of central and eastern England during the next 5 days. I'm still waiting for the washout some posters were promising. 

Edit: Northeastern Scotland too. 

 

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Hopefully the above is correct, but with convective showers forecast, precipitation charts may not be the best indicator. Certainly doesn't look overly unsettled though with plenty of dry periods and no frontal rain.

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Hopefully the above is correct, but with convective showers forecast, precipitation charts may not be the best indicator. Certainly doesn't look overly unsettled though with plenty of dry periods and no frontal rain.

Good point. On the other hand a number of posters (not saying you) were happy to believe them when they showed a washout at 10 days ahead.

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GFS 00z shows virtually no rain in much of central and eastern England during the next 5 days. I'm still waiting for the washout some posters were promising. 

Edit: Northeastern Scotland too. 

 

No surprise here as these totals are much less than those shown by the ECM which I'm sure, will come more into line with the GFS before too much longer.

Yet more evidence that water restrictions will soon be coming to these parts as we could really do with some rain here now.

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WX summary temps showing general rise to warm or very warm over virtually all Europe over the next two weeks, even W Scotland which has been cool so far this year. Specially hot at times in S Spain and Sicily; cold spots over Switzerland and N Russia. Wet in week 1 still for NW Britain and separately for France; in week 2 much dryer generally esp across France, still a narrow band of rain from Shetland to Norway.

Jet shows loop enclosing cut-off low from Sun 26th, fragmentary at times but persisting to Sun 3rd when weakish W-ly appears N of Scotland shifting to Sw-ly over Ireland Fri 8th

GFS Op shows the cut-off low well established Sun 26th 990 mb Donegal, drifting around and visiting most parts of the UK while filling during the course of the week. Then a strong rise of pressure from the Azores from Mon 4th, lasting the week, but Fri 8th splitting into centres over Norway and Azores.

GEFS shows cool period for a few days either side of Tue 28th, then mean returns to norm but this is an average of majority close to norm with quite a number of ens members warmer esp in S, none cooler; rain most likely for a week beginning Thu 30th in the E, but from Sat 25th and more of it in W 

ECM much the same as GFS

Yesterday's ECM showed the cut-off low merging with LP over France later next week, as did the BBC last night, but this now seems to be off the agenda

The WX summary looks much more bullish for warmer temps in the UK, in week 1  especially, than is justified by the synoptics

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On the subject of rainfall, I'm torn between wanting dry weather for outdoor activities and some rain to top up water supplies. Thankfully Bewl Reservoir, which is a critical source of water here in the far South-East is still at 81% capacity so I'm not expecting a hosepipe ban. (Though Bewl did not fill to 100% full over the winter, and only re-filled to some extent in the Spring.  More info for anyone interested here:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1082082/Kent_and_South_London_Water_Situation_Report_May_2022.pdf  )

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