The GFS 0z is terrible. Low sat close to the NW of Scotland (at time over the UK itself) almost throughout.

The SE benefits at times from ridging from the south, but for most of the country, it'd be very unsettled.

It's a general theme over the past several GFS runs, with (broadly speaking, the details change) a ScEuro-High too far east to direct impact the UK, but stopping the eastwards advancement of the low, which is on a more southerly trajectory due to blocking over the northern GIN Sea.

 

 

Those lows to the NW often play out well for the SE quadrant of there UK – which, we must remember, contains 60%+ of the UK population. Often 'poor' sypnotics translate into decent weather on the ground for many. 

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Those lows to the NW often play out well for the SE quadrant of there UK – which, we must remember, contains 60%+ of the UK population. Often 'poor' sypnotics translate into decent weather on the ground for many. 

Usually with such a setup as well, it will be the north and west of Scotland which will see the worst of any bad weather, sometimes to the point where very little of that actually gets to here in SE Scotland where I live, or maybe even to parts of NE Scotland, especially around the Moray Firth area.

With that, we will often get some very windy weather from that low to our NW and maybe even the odd shower here which could even be heavy at times.

However, any such showers will usually pass through very quickly as a result of those strong winds with our actual rainfall totals remaining very low as a result.

 

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Those lows to the NW often play out well for the SE quadrant of there UK – which, we must remember, contains 60%+ of the UK population. Often 'poor' sypnotics translate into decent weather on the ground for many. 

There's usually a concentric pattern of rainfall to these lows, particularly if there is warm air to the South. I've noticed it often when I've been in central France: there's the central convection and frontal system over NW UK, then a dry pocket across the South East and Northern France, then a secondary cold front / trough draped across France which brings a lot of thunderstorm activity in summer and plentiful rain.

You can see this effect in the current output. Teens to early 20s mm of rain across NW Britain between now and Monday, a gap (though in the GFS 06z the gap is punctuated by a mini plume of rainfall across Kent and Essex) and 50-100mm from Benelux down through Central France to the Pyrenees.

On Saturday it looks like areas East of London could get one of those concentric rings, but that didn't show up so much in earlier runs.  

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Just to be clear it is a good chance we will break a record this year which is closer to 40c - how people can say no chance is beyond me considering how quickly heat can now build. Mind you it is from the usual people who have already written off summer.
35c is not exceptional now but I think there is a chance of 39c this summer

Just to be clear, you are suggesting 38.8c has a good chance of happening this year. 

I don’t think anyone has nailed their colours to the mast, but to expect anything within a degree or so of the ‘big 4 0’ is like those who expect a December 2010 type event every winter since. On paper there’s nothing to suggest extreme heat of 2003 or 2019 this year. 

 

 

Those lows to the NW often play out well for the SE quadrant of there UK – which, we must remember, contains 60%+ of the UK population. Often 'poor' sypnotics translate into decent weather on the ground for many. 

 

You've said this a few times, but I'm unsure of your calculation methods

If we class the English regions of SE, East & London, the combined population is 24m. As a percentage of the entire UK population of 67m, that represents 36%

Even if you add in the E Mids (4.8m), you only get to 43%

 

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I can't even find a UK quadrant map, its possible most of Yorkshire could be in the SE depending on how you calculate it. Not a great term to use.

I remember there was one in a Geography textbook at School , the SE quadrant was labelled Cold Winters and Warm/Hot Summers, in fact only the NE and SE were labelled cold winters with the other two quadrants being cool or mild. I always thought it a bit bizarre, like our prevailing wind direction was from the east during winter, perhaps it was written after 1987.

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You've said this a few times, but I'm unsure of your calculation methods

If we class the English regions of SE, East & London, the combined population is 24m. As a percentage of the entire UK population of 67m, that represents 36%

Even if you add in the E Mids (4.8m), you only get to 43%

 

Yes I don't understand why certain posters on here think everyone lives in the SE, there's far more people in the UK that don't live in the SE than do for which the weather is relevant for.

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You've said this a few times, but I'm unsure of your calculation methods

If we class the English regions of SE, East & London, the combined population is 24m. As a percentage of the entire UK population of 67m, that represents 36%

Even if you add in the E Mids (4.8m), you only get to 43%

 

 

It's more drawing a line nw/se rather than using govt regions – so you will take in parts of Yorkshire and indeed areas of the SW and West Midlands too. You reach 60% quite easily. 

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Yes I don't understand why certain posters on here think everyone lives in the SE, there's far more people in the UK that don't live in the SE than do for which the weather is relevant for.

 

Actually, that's not true. If you draw a line NW/SE the majority of the population (quite easily) live SE of the line. 

People really forget just how asymmetric the population of this country is. 

Think of a line from the Tees estuary to say Bridport. Very useful for weather trends, I find, in the UK. 

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Actually, that's not true. If you draw a line NW/SE the majority of the population (quite easily) live SE of the line. 

People really forget just how asymmetric the population of this country is. 

 

Are you including NI in your calculations?

Regardless, I see that, using your method, I'd be in the SW quadrant.

 

It's pretty moot anyway, as the settled area I was talking about is further south than Yaaarksher (and further south than the E Mids)

 

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Are you including NI in your calculations?

Regardless, I see that, using your method, I'd be in the SW quadrant.

 

It's pretty moot anyway, as the settled area I was talking about is further south than Yaaarksher (and further south than the E Mids)

 

I do include NI but it doesn’t make that much difference if you exclude it, it still remains that the majority live SE of my invisible line! 

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Are you including NI in your calculations?

Regardless, I see that, using your method, I'd be in the SW quadrant.

 

It's pretty moot anyway, as the settled area I was talking about is further south than Yaaarksher (and further south than the E Mids)

 

And I'm pretty sure I'm in the CET area, the really spikey bit! And that always seems rather strange. What is even stranger is that I'm further east than Edinburgh.

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The Tees-Exe line is an actual thing in UK geography and is useful both in weather terms and geologically too - it's almost all sedimentary (limestone and clay dominated) to the SE of the line, and generally older / more granitic and more faulted to the NW. It's also generally more oceanic to the North and West of the line.

No idea what proportion of the population lives inside the Tees-Exe line, but definitely worth thinking about during summer weather regimes. As of right now there are a lot of locations with 26C and they are all, bar Cardiff and nearby St Athan, inside that line.

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The Tees-Exe line is an actual thing in UK geography and is useful both in weather terms and geologically too - it's almost all sedimentary (limestone and clay dominated) to the SE of the line, and generally older / more granitic and more faulted to the NW. It's also generally more oceanic to the North and West of the line.

No idea what proportion of the population lives inside the Tees-Exe line, but definitely worth thinking about during summer weather regimes. As of right now there are a lot of locations with 26C and they are all, bar Cardiff and nearby St Athan, inside that line.

 

Indeed – and that's good insight – when I have a spare couple of hours one day I might actually try to calculate the exact population – suffice to say it would exceed 60% fairly easily. 

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At least the Tees-Exe line is something that can be well defined unlike the quadrants.
I like to imagine it goes right through my house. To the NW I can see hills, moorlands, sheep and greenery. To the SE lowland Leeds, then flat arable lands.

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I suspect many who do not live in the SE probably care as much about the weather in the SE as Downpour seemingly cares about the weather that is not in the SE. People and posters here will care about the forecast where they are, not the forecast where they are not.

Having said all that, it is not really accurate to talk about an NW/SE split when commenting on a chart that shows the driest weather in the coming week or so in the NE and not the SE.

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I suspect many who do not live in the SE probably care as much about the weather in the SE as Downpour seemingly cares about the weather that is not in the SE. People and posters here will care about the forecast where they are, not the forecast where they are not.

Having said all that, it is not really accurate to talk about an NW/SE split when commenting on a chart that shows the driest weather in the coming week or so in the NE and not the SE.

 

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Indeed – and that's good insight – when I have a spare couple of hours one day I might actually try to calculate the exact population – suffice to say it would exceed 60% fairly easily. 

 

Probably around 65%

 

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I suspect many who do not live in the SE probably care as much about the weather in the SE as Downpour seemingly cares about the weather that is not in the SE. People and posters here will care about the forecast where they are, not the forecast where they are not.

Having said all that, it is not really accurate to talk about an NW/SE split when commenting on a chart that shows the driest weather in the coming week or so in the NE and not the SE.

 

Seems a bit mean – all I said was that the majority of the population lives SE of the line, a fact which we should do well to be cognisant of. 

I dare say few 'care' what the weather is doing in the northern tip of Rockall, although it might hold some hobbyish interest for weather fans from time to time. 

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Probably around 65%

 

 

Probably a very solid estimate. 

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