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On the subject of rainfall, I'm torn between wanting dry weather for outdoor activities and some rain to top up water supplies. Thankfully Bewl Reservoir, which is a critical source of water here in the far South-East is still at 81% capacity so I'm not expecting a hosepipe ban. (Though Bewl did not fill to 100% full over the winter, and only re-filled to some extent in the Spring. More info for anyone interested here:https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1082082/Kent_and_South_London_Water_Situation_Report_May_2022.pdf )
On the subject of rainfall, I'm torn between wanting dry weather for outdoor activities and some rain to top up water supplies. Thankfully Bewl Reservoir, which is a critical source of water here in the far South-East is still at 81% capacity so I'm not expecting a hosepipe ban. (Though Bewl did not fill to 100% full over the winter, and only re-filled to some extent in the Spring. More info for anyone interested here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1082082/Kent_and_South_London_Water_Situation_Report_May_2022.pdf )
For me the ideal scenario is dry, sunny days with the occasional spell of rain overnight. We got into that pattern in May for a while but now we've reverted to type (i.e. when it does rain it can happen anytime but seems to fall more during the day!).
We barely seem to have had much rain full stop - except in the wild imagination of some members on here.
Looks like Sweden is the place to go for the next week or so, for heat. The WX maps show a large temperature anomaly and the forecasts show temperatures peaking widely into the high 20s and even the mid 20s north of the Arctic Circle at Kiruna. This is due to an anticyclone building and settling in the Baltics which will advect warm air from the continent.
Thunderstorms brewing inland with sunny weather on the coasts too. So something for everybody ….
ECM 12z looks quite dry for the next week in central and eastern England.
Shows how useless these models are.
The GFS 6z is having one of its 'looks alright through FI' runs
As an aside, that is a classic SW-/WSW-wind chart. Note the rain shadow effect after the Snowdonia mountains for NE Wales/Merseyside, then more orographic rainfall as we reach the Pennines near Manchester.
A minor consideration in the grand scheme, but I notice these things for obvious MBY reasons
If that is 7 day accumulation from today, its already wrong for here as I've recorded 5mm this morning.Shows how useless these models are.
If that is 7 day accumulation from today, its already wrong for here as I've recorded 5mm this morning.
The Witney microclimate strikes again. Barely enough to tip a rain gauge here, just a bit of light refreshing rain on the school run this morning. Now feeling quite warm and muggy.
The previous couple of runs had moved away slightly from the horrible scenario of the cut off trough doing a UK spin for a couple of weeks. I hate to see that sort of progression getting into a groove following the longest day, so with the 06z going one step further, a cautious sigh of relief this afternoon. Hopefully the next couple of runs will continue this theme!
It really is bizarre how much rain falls in Witney. Probably a great place for gardeners. Absolutely no rain whatsoever here and nothing much progged for days - despite predictions of a “washout”.
0.6mm rain here today. Another complete bake.
Believe it or not, last July we drove down to Southampton in lovely sunny weather until we got to Oxfordshire and saw a big black cloud ahead on the motorway. We got to the junction for Whitney and the heavens opened with torrential rain. A few miles further, it was dry again. We did the return journey ten days later and it was exactly the same. No, I couldn’t believe it either!
It really was very wet here earlier today. I have no idea why we seem to get so much rain.
This sums up my life in Witney.It really was very wet here earlier today. I have no idea why we seem to get so much rain.
This sums up my life in Witney.
Several days ago, the model (especially GFS) resembled that of early July 2012, bringing cool conditions with showers or longer spells of rain, but with mostly dry, sunny spells along the S and SE coastal regions. Now the models (especially the GFS) resembles that of early June 2014, in being warm with sunny spells in SE half of UK but also potentially thundery too.