I was a bit disappointed with the GFS Para, until I noticed that it hadn't been updated since 12Z yesterday. I wonder what the problem is.

That's the 0z run. Its missing the 06z and now the 12z.

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That's the 0z run. Its missing the 06z and now the 12z.

There's a note on Meteociel saying "30-day parallel test is temporarily stopped. Runs will be usually still available but with some missing."

 

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Well this is all a little bit ‘interesting’ isn’t it? 😉😎

Until ECM shatters the mood in an hours time

 

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The seventies were similar to the last decade which was the best for 30 years. I get fed up with people who weren't there (not saying you) in complete denial of what people who were there say about the 50's, 60's. 70's 80's.  Climatically  we look at 30 year blocks. The last 30 years have had way less snow and severe cold than the previous 30.  Back then most years it snowed (but not every year) and a spell like the one we've just had wouldn't even have been recorded. It was so run of the mill(so far). Somebody on here said it was their best winter for ten years - damned by faint praise! It is true that the 70's weren't great. But even then 69-70 had a lot of snow and 70-71 was a White Christmas in London. 76-79 was exceptionally snowy and cold, far more so than 2009-2010 was in the S.E which was a once in 30 year event. These events weren't annual then, just every 10 years or so but in between there was a lot more snow. East Anglia and Kent has had orders of magnitude less snow showers than in the previous 30 years. Scotland had a thriving skiing industry.

I've posted this factual and respected link more times than I care to but I get the impression that people just don't want to read it because it won't confirm their views:-

https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html

http://www.laindonweather.co.uk/Snow%20page.htm

i was indeed very much around in the 70s but until 1976 lived in Gloucestershire . Yes Xmas 70 into 71 was a snowy spell after that there was little.  But I moved to Kent late 76 . We had a cold snowy spell Feb 78 and a lot 30 dec 78 and on and off through to March   . The 60s had snow and cold spells every winter. Remember 63 dec 67 Jan 68 and Feb 69 very snowy  . 

 

That's the 0z run. Its missing the 06z and now the 12z.

There's a message on the Meteociel page that says the v16 test has been suspended but some runs may still be available, but with incomplete data.

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There's a note on Meteociel saying "30-day parallel test is temporarily stopped. Runs will be usually still available but with some missing."

 

Thanks.

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I’m liking deep FI on 12z GFS. I want to see this theme developed. I’m a Scandi High fan. But somewhat averse to Azores Highs in winter that scupper cold shots.

It’s that STJ that enables the bubble ridge over the UK that is the precursor.

It’s an evolution I’ve been looking for and here finally is reasonable depiction on the Op. Sometimes it takes one or two or three attempts. A juicy January could lead to a fabulous February. 😀

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There's a message on the Meteociel page that says the v16 test has been suspended but some runs may still be available, but with incomplete data.

Looked straight past it

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Stratosphere remains warm over the pole with a renewed bout of warming from +252 and stays warmer than average even @ t+384z:

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I’m liking deep FI on 12z GFS. I want to see this theme developed. I’m a Scandi High fan. But somewhat averse to Azores Highs in winter that scupper cold shots.

It’s that STJ that enables the bubble ridge over the UK that is the precursor.

It’s an evolution I’ve been looking for and here finally is reasonable depiction on the Op. Sometimes it takes one or two or three attempts. A juicy January could lead to a fabulous February. 😀

Definitely a nice evolution for us down here. I was a little surprised by how snowy the deep FI part was (I know, won't be there later etc.) - at first glance it looked like a fairly dry setup with a bit of wintry stuff around the coasts but there's a reasonable amount of rain/snow pushing in to the block from the Atlantic (and not making it past the east coast). 

Seems to be a little more encouragement in the last couple of GFS runs, although I suspect the ens will still have a fair bit of mild or very mild scatter late on.

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I was a bit disappointed with the GFS Para, until I noticed that it hadn't been updated since 12Z yesterday. I wonder what the problem is.

They're making changes to it on 19/01. It should be back on 20/01.

PS: It is still expected to go live in March and I think the suggestion that it could be parked has been rejected

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I’m liking deep FI on 12z GFS. I want to see this theme developed. I’m a Scandi High fan. But somewhat averse to Azores Highs in winter that scupper cold shots.

It’s that STJ that enables the bubble ridge over the UK that is the precursor.

It’s an evolution I’ve been looking for and here finally is reasonable depiction on the Op. Sometimes it takes one or two or three attempts. A juicy January could lead to a fabulous February. 😀

Me too - and now with the cold truly locked into Scandinavia and eastern Europe (unlike earlier this month) - any easterly should deliver us much colder weather than that experienced early January. We live in hope.

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..  The 60s had snow and cold spells every winter. Remember 63 dec 67 Jan 68 and Feb 69 very snowy  . 

As a teenager in the 60's, and living in the Yorkshire Dales I can say I saw my share of deep drifting snow in that period, wonderful days. I can also say that there were many, many times when we had raw, miserable, cloudy, wet, windy weather that was just a tiny bit too warm for snow, or started off as snow, got a good blanket laid, only to hear the dreaded drip, drip drip of a slow but constant thaw and all that lovely snow and effort wasted! Temps would then stay between 3 and 6c for several days. Miserable. And just for balance...some of the summers were abysmal in the 60's. Days of cloud and 13c as the max. 22c was a heatwave.

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Definitely a nice evolution for us down here. I was a little surprised by how snowy the deep FI part was (I know, won't be there later etc.) - at first glance it looked like a fairly dry setup with a bit of wintry stuff around the coasts but there's a reasonable amount of rain/snow pushing in to the block from the Atlantic (and not making it past the east coast). 

Seems to be a little more encouragement in the last couple of GFS runs, although I suspect the ens will still have a fair bit of mild or very mild scatter late on.

If anything, the ensemble mean in far FI seems to have become a bit milder than in the 06Z or in yesterday's 12Z (I didn't see the 18Z or the 0Z).

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As a teenager in the 60's, and living in the Yorkshire Dales I can say I saw my share of deep drifting snow in that period, wonderful days. I can also say that there were many, many times when we had raw, miserable, cloudy, wet, windy weather that was just a tiny bit too warm for snow, or started off as snow, got a good blanket laid, only to hear the dreaded drip, drip drip of a slow but constant thaw and all that lovely snow and effort wasted! Temps would then stay between 3 and 6c for several days. Miserable. And just for balance...some of the summers were abysmal in the 60's. Days of cloud and 13c as the max. 22c was a heatwave.

Also a teenager in the 1960s, I remember those dismal summers too. Though perhaps I shouldn't complain, as I don't like excessively hot weather.

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 And just for balance...some of the summers were abysmal in the 60's. Days of cloud and 13c as the max. 22c was a heatwave.

Four years of the 1960s failed to reach even 29C let alone 30C. Pretty dire.

 

Having said that, on a local history website I have found a transcript of a diary of a resident of my town from the 1870s, and the amount of references to snow, frost and skating on local ponds is remarkable!

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Four years of the 1960s failed to reach even 29C let alone 30C. Pretty dire.

 

Having said that, on a local history website I have found a transcript of a diary of a resident of my town from the 1870s, and the amount of references to snow, frost and skating on local ponds is remarkable!

1870-9 was a decade with a lot of cold winter months. three having sub-zero CETs (though none reached -1C) and three more between 0 and 1. Surprisingly, of those six really cold months, as many as four were Decembers, 2 were Januaries, and there were no really severe Februaries. For whatever reason, winters at that time seem to have been "front-loaded".

Interesting, the coldest month of the 1860s had a CET of 1.2C, so the 1870s must have come as a bit of a shock.

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

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https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_240_1.png 

Yes take your pick?

GFS 0P @ Day 10

ECM @ Day 10

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Yes take your pick?

GFS 0P @ Day 10

ECM @ Day 10

It is interesting as a general theme just several 100 miles apart in terms of location to sink the high pressure down bringing the colder easterlies / NE’s into play hopefully.

Martin

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