Sorry I am confused MMW and nocked for six?

 

Please explain?

Major Mid Winter warming caused be the SSW. The Winter PV usually camps itself over the pole.  It’s as you obviously are aware of is nature’s way of keeping the intense cold restricted to that region. 
but there are circumstances that can effect its behaviour.  One of those is warming of the Strat.  We at 60N parallel are on the outer fringes of it’s usual influence, but occasionally it goes on walkabout, it gets displaced, it splits, but the intense cold associated with it stays with it. 

The nocked for six comment is a term I use to refer to its current behaviour, its been pushed out if its comfort zone and is not stable. As you are quite aware the PV effects atmospheric conditions from the upper Strat to the Ground “Trop” which is a conundrum of possibilities at the best of times, much more disturbed than events above. 

So if it isn’t behaving in a manner which would be considered normal, why would models be able to cope with conditions that are outside their comfort zone.  They can’t. 

I have been watching the models for weeks and they struggle to cope with anything that verifies beyond 3 or 4 days particularly in the last 10 days or so.  

it’s still mid winter ish, I’m no graduate in this subject so my opinion is just that an opinion, it’s garnered from reading and research, it’s not perfect in its presentation and will obviously omit some detail that the tech geeks find imperative.  But it’s no different to posting a million and one pics of models that predict an event that never verify  ten days from now with a JFF comment. 

Having said that, on a local history website I have found a transcript of a diary of a resident of my town from the 1870s, and the amount of references to snow, frost and skating on local ponds is remarkable!

Here there is a reliable local historical account of a woman returning to our village from market in Cambridge on Saturday 2nd February 1799. On the way back she was thrown from her horse in a blizzard and taking shelter under a hedge she was buried under a snow drift for for eight days until she was found and rescued.

In these parts today, the idea of (a) a blizzard (b) a snow drift deep enough to bury a person (c) a snow drift lasting for eight days, all seems completely fantastical.

 

It is interesting as a general theme just several 100 miles apart in terms of location to sink the high pressure down bringing the colder easterlies / NE’s into play hopefully.

Martin

Yes we shall see..

I don't like the look of those LP systems spinning off the coast of NE seaboard of USA/Canada as it could blast up the jet and give us cyclogenis. 

 

Major Mid Winter warming caused be the SSW.

 

Thanks makes a little more sense now.

 

Here there is a reliable local historical account of a woman returning to our village from market in Cambridge on Saturday 2nd February 1799. On the way back she was thrown from her horse in a blizzard and taking shelter under a hedge she was buried under a snow drift for for eight days until she was found and rescued.

In these parts today, the idea of (a) a blizzard (b) a snow drift deep enough to bury a person (c) a snow drift lasting for eight days, all seems completely fantastical.

I have also read that account and often imagine what it must of been like to live through those conditions at that time.

 

Thanks makes a little more sense now.

Don’t you just love acronyms...

 

Here there is a reliable local historical account of a woman returning to our village from market in Cambridge on Saturday 2nd February 1799. On the way back she was thrown from her horse in a blizzard and taking shelter under a hedge she was buried under a snow drift for for eight days until she was found and rescued.

In these parts today, the idea of (a) a blizzard (b) a snow drift deep enough to bury a person (c) a snow drift lasting for eight days, all seems completely fantastical.

I remember that story too, though in the version I read I think she was walking back from market when she blundered into the snowdrift. But I'd have thought that even in Cambridgeshire there must have been one or two blizzards of comparable severity well within living memory, even if they are rarer than in the past. ISTR that there was a nasty blizzard in your part of the world in February 1979 for instance.

 

Major Mid Winter warming caused be the SSW. The Winter PV usually camps itself over the pole.  It’s as you obviously are aware of is nature’s way of keeping the intense cold restricted to that region. 
but there are circumstances that can effect its behaviour.  One of those is warming of the Strat.  We at 60N parallel are on the outer fringes of it’s usual influence, but occasionally it goes on walkabout, it gets displaced, it splits, but the intense cold associated with it stays with it. 

The nocked for six comment is a term I use to refer to its current behaviour, its been pushed out if its comfort zone and is not stable. As you are quite aware the PV effects atmospheric conditions from the upper Strat to the Ground “Trop” which is a conundrum of possibilities at the best of times, much more disturbed than events above. 

So if it isn’t behaving in a manner which would be considered normal, why would models be able to cope with conditions that are outside their comfort zone.  They can’t. 

I have been watching the models for weeks and they struggle to cope with anything that verifies beyond 3 or 4 days particularly in the last 10 days or so.  

it’s still mid winter ish, I’m no graduate in this subject so my opinion is just that an opinion, it’s garnered from reading and research, it’s not perfect in its presentation and will obviously omit some detail that the tech geeks find imperative.  But it’s no different to posting a million and one pics of models that predict an event that never verify  ten days from now with a JFF comment. 

 

60N?? Bulk of the UK is between 50-55N :) 

 

60N?? Bulk of the UK is between 50-55N :) 

Sorry but isn't that just unnecessary nit picking about one minor point of an interesting post?

 

Here there is a reliable local historical account of a woman returning to our village from market in Cambridge on Saturday 2nd February 1799. On the way back she was thrown from her horse in a blizzard and taking shelter under a hedge she was buried under a snow drift for for eight days until she was found and rescued.

In these parts today, the idea of (a) a blizzard (b) a snow drift deep enough to bury a person (c) a snow drift lasting for eight days, all seems completely fantastical.

Slightly off topic but the UK’s latitude ranges from just below 50° N to over 60° N (in case anyone cared!)

 

Sorry but isn't that just unnecessary nit picking about one minor point of an interesting post?

 

You're a fine one to talk when it comes to nit picking, however is was just a correction of minor yet significant detail. The shetland islands lay roughly 60N. Conversely 10 degrees south of the UK would have you in the middle of the Mediterranean. It might not seem much but those degrees can have a significant effect on the regional climate :) 

 

I remember that story too, though in the version I read I think she was walking back from market when she blundered into the snowdrift. But I'd have thought that even in Cambridgeshire there must have been one or two blizzards of comparable severity well within living memory, even if they are rarer than in the past. ISTR that there was a nasty blizzard in your part of the world in February 1979 for instance.

I grew up in Staffordshire and between 78 and 85 there were at least 4 snow storms which I'd class as blizzards. The one in 85 left drifts that were as high as a top deck of a double decker - fantastic times climbing over them. Having said that i don't think the frequency of snow falling has changed it is more the quantity.

Slightly off topic but the UK’s latitude ranges from just below 50° N to over 60° N (in case anyone cared!)

Which is quite a distance :)  I'm assuming just below 50N are the Channel Islands? 

 

Sorry but isn't that just unnecessary nit picking about one minor point of an interesting post?

 

👍

60N is a boundary that covers the majority of the hemisphere that we live in, in global terms, it’s quite acceptable to use it as a generic term and it’s often referred to as a reference for our part of the world. Thanks for the support, but some have no concept of the bigger picture and find it difficult to look outside the box they are in. 

 

Which is quite a distance :)  I'm assuming just below 50N are the Channel Islands? 

No, it was the Isles of Scilly I was thinking of.

(Technically speaking the Channel Islands are not officially in the British Isles). Apologies for being off topic again. 

 

No, it was the Isles of Scilly I was thinking of.

(Technically speaking the Channel Islands are not officially in the British Isles). Apologies for being off topic again. 

Oh yeah of course the Isles of scilly ☺ 

 

Oh yeah of course the Isles of scilly ☺ 

And the Lizard peninsula just about sticks below 50 degrees north too. Mainland GB ranges from about 49.96N at the Lizard to 58.67N at Dunnet Head. Include islands and I make it about 49.86N to 60.86N.

Anyway back to models and the 12Z GEFS has some interest - the mean keeps the cold snap going a bit longer, and a definite cluster prolong it right out to the 26th (including the op and control). Indeed some runs barely have a mild blip at all before going colder again and there is a definite trend downwards at the end too.

 

Yes we shall see..

I don't like the look of those LP systems spinning off the coast of NE seaboard of USA/Canada as it could blast up the jet and give us cyclogenis. 

The jet is already becoming very active this week - whatever happens the SSW has probably saved us from a zonality on steroids spell.

Ecm means look very very poor plenty of flooding and little snow .

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=2&run=12&time=216&lid=AVG&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref