Major Mid Winter warming caused be the SSW. The Winter PV usually camps itself over the pole. It’s as you obviously are aware of is nature’s way of keeping the intense cold restricted to that region.
but there are circumstances that can effect its behaviour. One of those is warming of the Strat. We at 60N parallel are on the outer fringes of it’s usual influence, but occasionally it goes on walkabout, it gets displaced, it splits, but the intense cold associated with it stays with it.
The nocked for six comment is a term I use to refer to its current behaviour, its been pushed out if its comfort zone and is not stable. As you are quite aware the PV effects atmospheric conditions from the upper Strat to the Ground “Trop” which is a conundrum of possibilities at the best of times, much more disturbed than events above.
So if it isn’t behaving in a manner which would be considered normal, why would models be able to cope with conditions that are outside their comfort zone. They can’t.
I have been watching the models for weeks and they struggle to cope with anything that verifies beyond 3 or 4 days particularly in the last 10 days or so.
it’s still mid winter ish, I’m no graduate in this subject so my opinion is just that an opinion, it’s garnered from reading and research, it’s not perfect in its presentation and will obviously omit some detail that the tech geeks find imperative. But it’s no different to posting a million and one pics of models that predict an event that never verify ten days from now with a JFF comment.
Originally Posted by: Phil24