Matty H
17 January 2021 15:11:34

https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1350799638870290433?s=21


 



Originally Posted by: Retron 


 



We're in the middle of an SSW right now (the second one in quick succession).


https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=10&forecast=f24&lng=eng&hem=nh


The end of the GFS 6z hold promise (doesn't it always) - but we won't see the effects of this current SSW for a while (hell, it doesn't even finish until Thursday).



Snow Hoper
17 January 2021 15:13:28

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1350799638870290433?s=21


 


 



Don't have Twitter so cant read it, anyone care to recap?


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
DPower
17 January 2021 15:14:54

The 06z certainly looks more amplified across the Arctic compared with previous runs with stronger wave from the Pacific entering the Arctic. if this trend continues I would not be surprised if this afternoons runs make more of the ridge in the Atlantic from t96 perhaps allowing colder uppers to descend from a more amplified Arctic. lots to keep an eye on that's for sure.

Matty H
17 January 2021 15:15:18
He says

The latest round of mini warming in the stratosphere seems to be ending now and the #SPV stratospheric polar vortex looks set to recover a little in the weeks ahead

However, further mini warming and SPV weakening episodes can't be ruled out
Snow Hoper
17 January 2021 15:16:46

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

He says

The latest round of mini warming in the stratosphere seems to be ending now and the #SPV stratospheric polar vortex looks set to recover a little in the weeks ahead

However, further mini warming and SPV weakening episodes can't be ruled out


Thanks👍


Going to war over religion is like killing each other to see who has the better imaginary friend.


Home : Thorndon, Suffolk.
sunny coast
17 January 2021 15:20:14

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


In very simple terms: the past lasted a long time :)


 


What I mean is, every snowy spell from the past gets lumped together into some wintry golden age, while the mild guff gets forgotten, but the reality is that snow always has been a rarity in much of lowland England. It has got rarer, for obvious reasons, although actually the past 10-12 years have been snowier in my part of the world than the previous 30. Aside from 1991, the 90s were disastrous for snow lovers round here, as were the early 2000s and indeed much of the 80s. I’m not old enough to remember the 70s but they had largely uninspiring winters too, 78/79 aside. 


indeed   true . When you read some Facebook forums people talk about memories of the snowy winters  of the 70s !  Well after Christmas 1970 which was snowy the next spell of anything significant was feb 78  a cold spell with snow showers mainly in the east and culminating in the Great South West blizzard  then 79 which was a severe one but  especially north of the M4 . That apart the 70s were poor snow wise 

sunny coast
17 January 2021 15:23:25

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


In very simple terms: the past lasted a long time :)


 


What I mean is, every snowy spell from the past gets lumped together into some wintry golden age, while the mild guff gets forgotten, but the reality is that snow always has been a rarity in much of lowland England. It has got rarer, for obvious reasons, although actually the past 10-12 years have been snowier in my part of the world than the previous 30. Aside from 1991, the 90s were disastrous for snow lovers round here, as were the early 2000s and indeed much of the 80s. I’m not old enough to remember the 70s but they had largely uninspiring winters too, 78/79 aside. 


indeed   true . When you read some Facebook forums people talk about memories of the snowy winters  of the 70s !  Well after Christmas 1970 which was snowy the next spell of anything significant was feb 78  a cold spell with snow showers mainly in the east and culminating in the Great South West blizzard  then 79 which was a severe one but  especially north of the M4 . That apart the 70s were poor snow wise 

SnowyHythe(Kent)
17 January 2021 15:37:14

Originally Posted by: Retron 


 


Nope, I even included the link in my post!


Here it is again...


 


The rest of the charts (showing that yes, we're in a major SSW at the moment) are here:


https://users.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/diag.php?alert=1&lng=eng&hem=nh


 



Sorry, by the looks of this chart it looked liked it had started to plateau..


https://twitter.com/petagna/status/1350799638870290433?s=21


EDIT: I see this has already been posted. 


 


 


 

Rob K
17 January 2021 16:05:39

The 12Z GFS is looking rather snowy indeed for the Scottish members... perhaps even the Edinburgh contingent, model resolution permitting. I won't mention Ab*rd**n though.


 



 



 


Further south some very high rainfall totals especially over Wales and NW England. Even down here looks like another inch and a half this week, entering full rivers.



 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
fairweather
17 January 2021 16:11:45

Originally Posted by: sunny coast 


indeed   true . When you read some Facebook forums people talk about memories of the snowy winters  of the 70s !  Well after Christmas 1970 which was snowy the next spell of anything significant was feb 78  a cold spell with snow showers mainly in the east and culminating in the Great South West blizzard  then 79 which was a severe one but  especially north of the M4 . That apart the 70s were poor snow wise 



The seventies were similar to the last decade which was the best for 30 years. I get fed up with people who weren't there (not saying you) in complete denial of what people who were there say about the 50's, 60's. 70's 80's.  Climatically  we look at 30 year blocks. The last 30 years have had way less snow and severe cold than the previous 30.  Back then most years it snowed (but not every year) and a spell like the one we've just had wouldn't even have been recorded. It was so run of the mill(so far). Somebody on here said it was their best winter for ten years - damned by faint praise! It is true that the 70's weren't great. But even then 69-70 had a lot of snow and 70-71 was a White Christmas in London. 76-79 was exceptionally snowy and cold, far more so than 2009-2010 was in the S.E which was a once in 30 year event. These events weren't annual then, just every 10 years or so but in between there was a lot more snow. East Anglia and Kent has had orders of magnitude less snow showers than in the previous 30 years. Scotland had a thriving skiing industry.


I've posted this factual and respected link more times than I care to but I get the impression that people just don't want to read it because it won't confirm their views:-


https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html


http://www.laindonweather.co.uk/Snow%20page.htm


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gusty
17 January 2021 16:18:02

A very deep area of low pressure on Thursday with a central core in the 960's.


850Hpa's will not need to be too low to get snow to fairly low levels with this one.


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Whiteout
17 January 2021 16:21:32

Fabled Channel Low potential next weekend too 👍


Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
Rob K
17 January 2021 16:22:40

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


I've posted this factual and respected link more times than I care to but I get the impression that people just don't want to read it because it won't confirm their views:-


https://durhamweather.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/bonacina.html


 



 


That link backs up what others have said about the 70s (including Trevor Harley who seems to know his stuff). The 70s were a pretty poor decade for snowy winters, with the exception of two good winters at the end.


I do think some of the older winters there have been given a higher grade than the stats suggest, eg some of the older years which saw only relatively small amounts in two months of the year are given "Average" while more recent years with similar amounts but in four months are classed as "Little"...


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Gusty
17 January 2021 16:24:47

That secondary low is still be modelled in FI again. 850Hpa's have made to the south coast. Somewhere is in for a snow event if this continues. Midlands Wales, Midlands, East Anglia assuming it takes an ESE'ly track. 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



Rob K
17 January 2021 16:34:04

Originally Posted by: Gusty 


That secondary low is still be modelled in FI again. 850Hpa's have made to the south coast. Somewhere is in for a snow event if this continues. Midlands Wales, Midlands, East Anglia assuming it takes an ESE'ly track. 


Modele GFS - Carte prévisions



Yes looks potentially interesting... GFS has snow across the south but nothing settling is modelled so very marginal stuff.


Further down the line an interesting height rise to the north around 240 hours could well pull in an easterly?


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
doctormog
17 January 2021 16:35:03
Another tweak towards colder conditions on the GFS 12z run. It will be interesting to see how the scenario fits with the ensemble data or indeed the ECM run later.
squish
17 January 2021 16:36:05
Interesting longer term trend on the 12z GFS (post 240) let alone all the interest before then!
D.E.W on Dartmoor. 300m asl
jhall
17 January 2021 16:52:23

I was a bit disappointed with the GFS Para, until I noticed that it hadn't been updated since 12Z yesterday. I wonder what the problem is.


Cranleigh, Surrey
nsrobins
17 January 2021 16:54:56
Well this is all a little bit ‘interesting’ isn’t it? 😉😎
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Sevendust
17 January 2021 16:57:52

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Yes looks potentially interesting... GFS has snow across the south but nothing settling is modelled so very marginal stuff.


Further down the line an interesting height rise to the north around 240 hours could well pull in an easterly?



Yes that caught my eye. The low slides ESE on the run which is useful.


As Steve also mentioned, the low next week is pretty deep so close to the centre there could be some good evap cooling conditions 

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