I wouldn't be thinking of writing off the rest of winter when there is still 6 weeks of it to go, Kieren.
Had we had the same patten this winter that we had this time last year, i.e total atlantic domination, then I might have been more inclined to agree. However, from all that I have seen over the past month or two, there has been a great deal more volatility in FI in the models than I can ever recall being the case at any time last winter. With the recent/ongoing SSW, I reckon the amount of uncertainty increases even more.
It's worth remembering that the Beast from the East in 2018 didn't arrive until the final 2-3 days of February, and that wasn't long after we had had a brief milder and wetter spell in the middle of that month.
The SSW took place 12 days ago, the effect was MMW that has caused mayhem with the PV being displaced, split and nocked for six. What with a minor SSW due soon, there is a fair chance that it will be the total undoing of any opportunity for the PV to reassert itself. Lots of comment on the models not varifying at just a few days let alone ten days and beyond.
High pressure is starting to assert itself from the other side of the pole and moving into where the PV would normally be located, with a weakened PV it has practically little chance of going home anytime soon. If the high can assist in a more permanent split of the PV which is currently being shown, forcing the main Vortex out to our north east, we are in for something memorable.
it was always the case that if the SSW was to have any long term effect on our winter, that would take between two to four weeks to transpire.
The models cannot deal with the current situation with a PV that is the basis of all that goes on in the Trop , which is chaotic at the best of times, but currently causing mayhem with any chance to predict anything with chance of confirmation beyond a few days.
My glass is definitely full.